Summer 2023 chat

[stainesbloke]

Just now, markyo said:

I'm getting old mate, please excuse me! Hope you can get something more to your liking at some stage soon, long summer for those wanting heat i know. 

No worries Getting on a bit too. We’re not even half way through summer yet so I’m sure there’ll be something more seasonal soon. I’m not wanting heat, 22-27°C is absolutely fine with me, as long as it’s sunny for much of the time (or decently thundery)

[Guest]

I put in the model thread the only good thing about this morning model output across the board is that the pattern and the agreement is so bad it can surely only get better? 

[stainesbloke]

4 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I put in the model thread the only good thing about this morning model output across the board is that the pattern and the agreement is so bad it can surely only get better? 

Looks pretty crap. If we have to have a trough, I’d prefer it to park itself in the Bay of Biscay and stay there for a while. We might get some interesting weather then, not cool, cloudy, windy dreariness  

[Bristawl Si]

I see this old pony has been rolled out in the Mad thread -

The op models are struggling currently so we need to try to not take them too much at face value.   

As reliable as night follows day

[midlandsun]

Another sunny morning first thing, followed by the predictable grey cloud moving over and staying put. Yawn.

[davehsug]

I don't mind unsettled weather, it's the major part of our climate, but this week has been ridiculously cold for July. We've just had 4 days of temperatures in the low to mid teens, coupled with a brisk breeze and almost permanent cloud cover. I'd much prefer a mobile Westerly  with troughs and ridges in between, at least you get the occasional sunny day, with temperatures close to bearable!

[Djdazzle]

I get what people say about long range forecasts being a guide, but when the long range forecast ends up being the COMPLETE opposite of what was signalled for July, questions need to be asked.

[ANYWEATHER]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

I get what people say about long range forecasts being a guide, but when the long range forecast ends up being the COMPLETE opposite of what was signalled for July, questions need to be asked.

It’s happened lots of time before! Long range forecasts are full of caveats

[Paul]

4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I get what people say about long range forecasts being a guide, but when the long range forecast ends up being the COMPLETE opposite of what was signalled for July, questions need to be asked.

It's the 6th of the month. Lrf's tend to look at the entirety of a month, so you're a tad early to judge.

[Bristawl Si]

Looks like we're heading for a typical Summer's day here; becoming increasingly sunny with a top temp of 22c.

And tomorrow looks hot

[Guest]

The cloud not really clearing, always going to be a problem under lowish pressure. The mid level cloud disappearing being replaced a thin layer of Cu. I suspect a frustrating day for many. 

[SunnyG]

1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

I get what people say about long range forecasts being a guide, but when the long range forecast ends up being the COMPLETE opposite of what was signalled for July, questions need to be asked.

The best part (I'm being ironic) is that they were CONFIDENT about the temps being higher than average... that was the bit they were sure of lmaooooo

[reef]

3 hours ago, SunSean said:

Yeah I agree, I've looked at the argument and respect their opinion of adjusting but I just don't think it's genuine to do so. When doing my sunshine leagues, there will be no adjusting and all stations will be treated equal.

Then your 'sunshine leagues' will be wrong and not the direct comparison you're looking for.

The adjustment is for consistency of the data. Calibration and applying an offset is standard practice when changing recording equipment. The newer automatic sunshine recorders are under-sensitive at lower w/m2 compared to the old ones. You can see which stations need a correction due to this as the data provided by the metoffice has a hash next to it.

[Guest]

47 minutes ago, Alderc said:

The cloud not really clearing, always going to be a problem under lowish pressure. The mid level cloud disappearing being replaced a thin layer of Cu. I suspect a frustrating day for many. 

Cloud is just getting thicker and thicker here. Wouldn’t surprise me to see some showers breaking out. Very disappointing. 

[danm]

Re long range forecasts, it is still a little early to judge. We are odds on for a cool first half of July. Second half of the month is still very uncertain. The way I view them is simply as a tentative view on what the probabilities are for a particular outcome during the season. I don't place too much faith in them as LRF's are notoriously difficult, and other factors can disrupt the expected pattern. 

I don't think we should sneer though, the people producing them do so in good faith and with the best information at the time to hand. However, if you're reading them and expecting the Summer to turn out exactly as described, then you're just setting yourself up for disappointment. 

[Bristawl Si]

2 hours ago, Bristle Si said:

Looks like we're heading for a typical Summer's day here; becoming increasingly sunny with a top temp of 22c.

And tomorrow looks hot

Ha! "Increasingly sunny" i said - it's clouded over and a shower or two beckons this lunchtime. Warm though, at 20c.

Heading for 27c tom though, clear blue skies and a southerly breeze

Edited July 6, 2023 by Bristle Si

[Methuselah]

3 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

Dover avarage for July is only 20⁰ so it's also been more or less normal here, and also explains why I've been comfortable in a t shirt and not felt cold. 

Same here; yesterday was the first definitely subnormal day for quite some time. It's just that I'm quite comfortable at 18C.  

[alexisj9]

3 hours ago, midlandsun said:

Another sunny morning first thing, followed by the predictable grey cloud moving over and staying put. Yawn.

Was the opposite here, was some cloud about this morning, it's sunny now.

[alexisj9]

3 hours ago, davehsug said:

I don't mind unsettled weather, it's the major part of our climate, but this week has been ridiculously cold for July. We've just had 4 days of temperatures in the low to mid teens, coupled with a brisk breeze and almost permanent cloud cover. I'd much prefer a mobile Westerly  with troughs and ridges in between, at least you get the occasional sunny day, with temperatures close to bearable!

That's the weather we've had this week though, so apparently you don't like a mobile westerly.

3 hours ago, Djdazzle said:

I get what people say about long range forecasts being a guide, but when the long range forecast ends up being the COMPLETE opposite of what was signalled for July, questions need to be asked.

Why do people pay attention to long range forecasts, when they know closer to the time things will change.

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, SunnyG said:

The best part (I'm being ironic) is that they were CONFIDENT about the temps being higher than average... that was the bit they were sure of lmaooooo

You can tell six days into the month they won't be?

[Guest]

1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

You can tell six days into the month they won't be?

Think about it, 6days in we are already under average, they’ll only be 2 warm days in the first half of the month, the extended forecast poor to very poor. While things can change based on what we know we’d need a repeat of the 19th July last year over the entire last week to get July into the warm category. So yes it’s possible, but is it likely? Certainly not at the moment. 

[midlandsun]

12 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Was the opposite here, was some cloud about this morning, it's sunny now.

Not horrendous here now to be fair, Leicestershire/Northamptonshire border, warming up noticeably even with the wind.

[SunnyG]

1 hour ago, alexisj9 said:

You can tell six days into the month they won't be?

I can't tell since I don't predict the future, but THEY seem to think now that the temps will be average at best.

[SunSean]

2 hours ago, reef said:

Then your 'sunshine leagues' will be wrong and not the direct comparison you're looking for.

The adjustment is for consistency of the data. Calibration and applying an offset is standard practice when changing recording equipment. The newer automatic sunshine recorders are under-sensitive at lower w/m2 compared to the old ones. You can see which stations need a correction due to this as the data provided by the metoffice has a hash next to it.

So up North in East Yorkshire is as sunny as East Sussex and Kent, got ya

[SunSean]

5 days in and there's a few surprises near the top! Northumberland joint first sunniest for July so far!

East Yorkshire also in the top 5- almost like it doesn't even need any "special adjustment"

No matter, this is all the raw and non-biased figures so far although I can't vouch for 100% accuracy of amateur stations.

A "-" equals missing data.

Despite missing a day, Cambridgeshire are still high up.