Summer 2023 chat

[al78]

1 hour ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

In what regard? Not trying to pick sides here just genuinely curious as to how one can claim that k this July has been anything other than dire!?

There's been very, very little to smile about weather-wise for anyone other than the most avid lovers of cool, wet and cloudy conditions. 

 

There has been some spatial variation in weather this month. Looking at the HadUKP charts, NW England is very close to a record wet July whereas SE England is above average but not notably so. I can believe why someone living in the south and east of the country would say July has not been a write-off. In my location in Sussex it has been unsettled but nowhere near as bad as it could be. The infamous wet summers of 2007 and 2012 had widespread destructive flooding which has been absent this year.

 

 

[Bristawl Si]

1 hour ago, A Face like Thunder said:

According to the 7-day forecast on Countryfile this evening, it is due to get a whole lot cooler with Northerly winds and the possibility of yet another wet and windy weekend next week!

And he said that July has been wetter and cooler than average for the UK - but we know that anyway.

[NEVES SCREAMER]

If you combine spring and summer it has been truly depressing.  Two or three weeks in June excepted. Cool. Wet. Below average. Dull. Windy. Appalling dross. 

[SunnyG]

22 minutes ago, al78 said:

Anyone who makes a prediction weeks ahead is at best making an educated guess and if they turn out right are almost entirely lucky. The weather just isn't that predictable in the UK.

I beg to differ. It's often predictably dull and grey and anything in the way of cloudless and dry is the exception not the rule.

1 hour ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Yep. And don't check the forecasts for the week coming either if you wanna retain your sanity...

Wednesday should be a shocker. A late November day at the beginning of August. Lovely.

[Freeze]

1 hour ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

I had a hunch it'd turn out this way because these patterns get super locked in, they always do, but was mocked and dismissed with comments of "you got a crystal ball mate?" 

Well, evidently I did. Lol.

Why aren't you broadcasting the weather on the TV? 

[SunnyG]

1 hour ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

I had a hunch it'd turn out this way because these patterns get super locked in, they always do, but was mocked and dismissed with comments of "you got a crystal ball mate?" 

Well, evidently I did. Lol.

To be fair, those 'in the know' on the model output thread were fairly agreed it was gonna last a while.

[SunnyG]

2 minutes ago, Freeze said:

Why aren't you broadcasting the weather on the TV? 

The netweather mid range forecast claimed it would be a hot July so IAoTS would have faired better than them lmao

[CharlieBear9]

37 minutes ago, Don said:

Yes, it makes sense now, sorry once again about earlier!

All good, forget about it.

[Freeze]

1 minute ago, SunnyG said:

The netweather mid range forecast claimed it would be a hot July so IAoTS would have faired better than them lmao

I would agree with you, but they're not using just their 'gut' feeling, but actual science and background signals.. it has never been 100% full proof and is prone to be wrong occasionally, that's the fun of weather forecasting! 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

7 hours ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

Indeed, lots of plans coming up, birthdays, golf events, parties, air shows. Weather needs to improve to at least decent. 

Had a party today. Had to be in due to it being too cold and drizzly of course

[*Stormforce~beka*]

6 hours ago, Andy Bown said:

Beginning to get a rather edgy about our North Wales holiday now! I had given it a chance to change before thinking negatively!
 

Right now I would snap anyone’s hand off for even 3 mostly dry & bright/breezy days from 4th-11th August! 

Book a last minute holiday abroad instead!

3 hours ago, Methuselah said:

Well, it hasn't been a 'write-off' over here.

Well how lucky for you!

[Don]

2 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Well how lucky for you!

The sun had its hat on here yesterday, but abruptly removed it today, as it clearly believed we needed more rain! 

[TheOgre]

Well we’ve come to the last day of this dire July and good riddance! I do think August will be better, not because I think it’ll be great, but more because I don’t think you can get much worse than this July. Not only that, I can’t think of a two month period in summer without at least some hot weather so surely August MUST provide something. This pattern can’t go on forever… 

[In Absence of True Seasons]

10 hours ago, Freeze said:

Why aren't you broadcasting the weather on the TV? 

Haven't got the face for it mate!

[Sunny76]

11 hours ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:

Another disgraceful summers day. 5 weeks of this rubbish now. I thought back in mid Jan when the azores high was in control that we would pay for it with a dire summer. So it is. 

Another terrible start. Raining and cloudy yet again.

It feels like a November morning. 

[In Absence of True Seasons]

Slight change from yesterday in that today is bringing a bit of a different, darker shade of grey for us! 

Enjoy it

[Sunny76]

8 hours ago, TheOgre said:

Well we’ve come to the last day of this dire July and good riddance! I do think August will be better, not because I think it’ll be great, but more because I don’t think you can get much worse than this July. Not only that, I can’t think of a two month period in summer without at least some hot weather so surely August MUST provide something. This pattern can’t go on forever… 

This July has been one of the worst for a good while. 

1 minute ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Slight change from yesterday in that today is bringing a bit of a different, darker shade of grey for us! 

Enjoy it

How delightful!

[Sunny76]

10 hours ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:

If you combine spring and summer it has been truly depressing.  Two or three weeks in June excepted. Cool. Wet. Below average. Dull. Windy. Appalling dross. 

That’s the problem. We had to endure cool and duller weather during the March to May period, with colder weather hanging around a lot later this year.

A few lovely weeks in June( and people were moaning about the heat) and now we are back to the dull grey and depressing weather.

[Azazel]

10 hours ago, al78 said:

Anyone who makes a prediction weeks ahead is at best making an educated guess and if they turn out right are almost entirely lucky. The weather just isn't that predictable in the UK.

Disagree - the last few years have seen weather patterns locked in for substantial periods of time.

We're now into week 6 of this unsettled blip.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

5 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

This July has been one of the worst for a good while

Unquestionably the worse in my living memory. Worse than 2012 even, which had a rather settled warm spell at the end. 

To add insult to injury, there's no relief in sight...first week of August at minimum is just more of the same wet, dark, and cool conditions. 

It's truly trying. I can feel myself already going into that "insular" mode, physically and mentally, where my energy levels drop, my mood worsens, and my auto-immune issues flare up more. That usually doesn't happen until October or November. Never felt this way health-wise in July.

[stainesbloke]

27 minutes ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Unquestionably the worse in my living memory. Worse than 2012 even, which had a rather settled warm spell at the end. 

To add insult to injury, there's no relief in sight...first week of August at minimum is just more of the same wet, dark, and cool conditions. 

It's truly trying. I can feel myself already going into that "insular" mode, physically and mentally, where my energy levels drop, my mood worsens, and my auto-immune issues flare up more. That usually doesn't happen until October or November. Never felt this way health-wise in July.

Another day, another shade of grey and useless drizzle in the wind. The joy is indescribable  

Can anyone spot the UK on satellite pics? 

Edited July 31, 2023 by stainesbloke

[Alderc 2.0]

I guess the only consolation is that with mean temps being higher due to global warming (and im not trivialising global warming for one bit) is mean temps are about 1.5C higher than they would of been if we’d had this pattern in the 70s or 80s…

Another trying week to come, despite the slight uptick in model output there’s a lot of very poor weather to come with the possibility of two or three lows crossing the country. I’m not going to be taking any improvement in model seriously until it’s within 5days as there’s just so much robust weather in the mix. 

[In Absence of True Seasons]

19 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Another day, another shade of grey and useless drizzle in the wind. The joy is indescribable  

Can anyone spot the UK on satellite pics? 

Christ, that's nearly a dead-straight split across North v South of Europe!

Why do the cloud patterns do this!? Just break up evenly abc.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

6 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

I guess the only consolation is that with mean temps being higher due to global warming (and im not trivialising global warming for one bit) is mean temps are about 1.5C higher than they would of been if we’d had this pattern in the 70s or 80s…

I suppose, but from my personal perception of it, such temp variances don't really make much of a difference in patterns/conditions like this. 18c, 19c, 20c or even 21c... it's all more or less the same when its fully overcast and/or drizzling or solid rain. 

I'd rather have 18c and sunny in July than 22/23c and cloudy drizzle in July, despite the former being - for London anyway - a solid 5/6c below average max temps.

[stainesbloke]

13 minutes ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Christ, that's nearly a dead-straight split across North v South of Europe!

Why do the cloud patterns do this!? Just break up evenly abc.

A barrage of low pressure and a multitude of fronts. Has to let up at some point…?!