Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

[goosey007]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Mmm, not ideal and the next low looks like it’s bowl in with mild air!! Going south would normally be good, but I think it would just be a damp squib on this run!!

Next

Going to move north and south at this range …..however don’t want other subsequent models and runs keeping with a southern track trend that for sure

 

[mountsbaysnow]

Just now, goosey007 said:

Going to move north and south at this range …..however don’t want other subsequent models and runs keeping with a southern track trend that for sure

 

Just out of curiosity, wouldn't a more southerly track be more beneficial for West Cornwall? 

 

[Ali1977]

I mean the next system looks like hammering somewhere - north England upwards at least - maybe more widespread before turning to rain too 

Edited March 3, 2023 by Ali1977

[goosey007]

1 minute ago, mountsbaysnow said:

Just out of curiosity, wouldn't a more southerly track be more beneficial for West Cornwall? 

 

No these systems are going into France complete miss !

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I mean the next system looks like hammering somewhere - north England upwards at least 

Need that to hit the buffers …..snow to rain mush fest that

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, goosey007 said:

No these systems are going into France complete miss !

Need that to hit the buffers …..snow to rain mush fest that

Just posted them for fun really, lots to sort out before then!! I still feel midlands south is the prime target - not because I live there!! 
 

This is the 2nd main system nailing the north of England though - not a system that has been discussed by the METO yet - they have been focussing on the Wed/Thurs one. 

Edited March 3, 2023 by Ali1977

[alexisj9]

10 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I mean the next system looks like hammering somewhere - north England upwards at least - maybe more widespread before turning to rain too 

I think the next system will weaken too, might go a bit further north, but I think it will slide, and not be a bowling ball.

Edited March 3, 2023 by alexisj9

[January Snowstorm]

Usually when the trend South starts it continues to nudge over subsequent runs. Purely speculation but I'm expecting a miss by quite a bit as it moves over France.

[nick sussex]

More interest developing to the ne on the GFS 18 hrs run , similar to the ECM trend .

[Ali1977]

Just now, January Snowstorm said:

Usually when the trend South starts it continues to nudge over subsequent runs. Purely speculation but I'm expecting a miss by quite a bit as it moves over France.

If it misses by going further south the Friday one could bring the goods to many!! 

[seabreeze86]

A complete dumping in the north obviously will change but nice to look at all the same 

[Aiden2012]

Just now, seabreeze86 said:

A complete dumping in the north obviously will change but nice to look at all the same 

Now that would be the perfect end to winter for me had no laying snow all winter

[January Snowstorm]

8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

If it misses by going further south the Friday one could bring the goods to many!! 

I don't think so the angle is all wrong. Starting to look very dry before the mild wins out 

[Tim Bland]

Not bad end of the week for many 

[Tim Bland]

Front stalls in the north then heads south at the weekend .. and then there’s a 3rd snowy breakdown for the north Sunday! 

Edited March 3, 2023 by Tim Bland

[Ali1977]

The control is a belter fir the midlands south!! Big big snow 

[NorthYorksWeather]

5 minutes ago, Aiden2012 said:

Now that would be the perfect end to winter for me had no laying snow all winter

Me either Aidan here near Malton not far from you, narrowly missed out back in December whereas only a few miles east saw a good dumping.

GFS is dream event for us that are snow starved. Unfortunately its a long way off so probably likely to chop and change a lot between now and then.

Looks like round 2 incoming at 216hrs but this one likely to be a snow to rain event.

Certainly feel a bit more positive after the 12z EC and 18Z GFS after a poor 12z ICON/UKMO/GFS.

Hopefully the 00z's prolong the cold spell.

[Mark wheeler]

Aprege 18z coming out , lets see if it follows the 12z as it was not without interest. . Not sure if posted earlier, I am slightly guilty of neglecting my work tasks during the 12z . Hope not to many colleagues are members on here .

[Eskimo]

The southerly shunting has begun. I feel like if the GFS modelled the low to cross Greenland at day 5, it would still end up running through the channel on the day!!

[Mcconnor8]

Way more spread in the ensembles for London on the 18z for Wednesday, far more going milder than previously bringing the mean 850s up a lot, could go either way.

[NorthYorksWeather]

18z GFS has a deeper low running down eastern areas on Tuesday morning giving an more organised band of snow sweeping southwards across the country.

Likely blizzard conditions over the North York Moors and exposed coastal areas.

ICON however has no low whatsoever with just a clean convective cold flow off the North Sea. 

Both UKMO and EC have this low so ICON on its own there.

[Mark wheeler]

Well, well then, the aprege still has the feature . 

 

@MATTWOLVES 3, Brilliant updated today mate . Sorry if I was A bit trigger happy with the Mogreps today . Getting excited and all that. You expain them very well mate , better than I can . 
 

ps . Is that the triangle of doom I see getting pummelled .

Edited March 3, 2023 by Mark wheeler

[geordiekev]

39 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Nice.

Nice indeed, obviously everyone spotted my deliberate mistake earlier, models want to move everything W to E as is the norm, the Canadian fed Greeny block is wanting to move them West.

As we are benefitting from the peak of the block, not the normal Eastern flank given position of tpv, all to play for. Forget Normal, interesting viewing if not nerve shredding

[Ali1977]

As mentioned above the arpege is really going for that system from the north on Tuesday !! 

[Bricriu]

30 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I don't think so the angle is all wrong. Starting to look very dry before the mild wins out 

Yes, but some snow before that happens. Any milder push will hopefully be brief too. 

[geordiekev]

36 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

The Idea that the North Pole is in Control in March is a load of rubbish.? The Atlantic is primed and ready and waiting to ponce on any body who has a different opinion..☺

Not so the Canadian fed Greeny block is playing havoc with the usual W to East motion alongiside the weaker winds aloft. Different thinking required at present