Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

[steveinsussex]

9 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Good god the gfs 12z at just 96 hours is wayy further south!!!!ukmo about to churn out!!!will that go south!!

These lows always track south into France. I’m surprised people are surprised!

[Tim Bland]

So far south now that Weds is cold dry and sunny for most 

[Methuselah]

Crikey -- having spent the last 12 hours roasting on a spit and talking with long-deceased cats, I've reached a conclusion: I do not know what next week's weather will do! 

[Met4Cast]

Well..

By the weekend the Iberian high pumps milder air up into the UK ahead of the low meaning a rain event for most. Not quite the trend we wanted but probably the trend that was expected, always is the case with these lows, though the GFS does seem to be further south than most other models at the moment.

Edited March 4, 2023 by Met4Cast

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Is this really what we waited 3 months for? Lol it might be cold but it's now gone very dry. We can only hope for disturbances in the flow. Little wind either to aid convection..

I think some are over reacting to every op run with this event. The truth is we could be much further North again come the 18s...and then further South come the 0zs.

If this does stay South we keep locked in the cold air and await the next attempt and there will be others towards the backend of next week..keeping the colder air in place for longer will help entrench it and make it harder to shift. Some are missing the bigger picture.

 

[January Snowstorm]

I've seen enough to call it as a fail next week. No ppn around with the vast majority of us cold and dry. Agreement on a swift breakdown to mild and wet by Friday. What a tough Winter to endure with no change of fortune even with 2 warmings.

Would be nice in a way now to get something Spring like.

[nick sussex]

The UKMO showing a big change between its day 6 on the 00hrs run and the 12hrs to the same timeframe.

Hard to have too much confidence in the outputs when you see these types of differences.

[MattStoke]

Front mid week heading to France. Front late week blasting through mild air.

Pretty standard, really.

[Snowy L]

5 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Well..

By the weekend the Iberian high pumps milder air up into the UK ahead of the low meaning a rain event for most. Not quite the trend we wanted but probably the trend that was expected, always is the case with these lows, though the GFS does seem to be further south than most other models at the moment.

Yep as usual we've got the worst of both worlds. Prolong the dry cold just to have a rain event for our troubles.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

I've seen enough to call it as a fail next week. No ppn around with the vast majority of us cold and dry. Agreement on a swift breakdown to mild and wet by Friday. What a tough Winter to endure with no change of fortune even with 2 warmings.

Would be nice in a way now to get something Spring like.

Really after a couple of runs and completely at loggerheads with the recent met update! 

No precipitation? There are several warnings in force for Sunday onwards..this place really does leave me scratching my head.

[Met4Cast]

MOGREPS has also removed the risk of snowfall into southern England mid-week.

I can only assume the higher resolution MOGREPS-UK is still signalling a potential event given the met update mentions significant snowfall in the SW/S, but certainly todays model trends have been away from the idea. 

Lots of water still to go under the proverbial bridge.

[January Snowstorm]

8 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Really after a couple of runs and completely at loggerheads with the recent met update! 

No precipitation? There are several warnings in force for Sunday onwards..this place really does leave me scratching my head.

It's been trending this way now for a while with much weaker heights over Greenland than first projected. Indeed we hardly see any Greenland high now it's gonevin 48 hrs. That's not a knee jerk it's been a trend for the last 3 days. No Greenland or Scandi heights and no cold spell really is the way I see it

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

I think some are over reacting to every op run with this event. The truth is we could be much further North again come the 18s...and then further South come the 0zs.

If this does stay South we keep locked in the cold air and await the next attempt and there will be others towards the backend of next week..keeping the colder air in place for longer will help entrench it and make it harder to shift. Some are missing the bigger picture.

 

Aye, Matt -- it's obvious -- all we need do is remove our own entrails and all will be revealed. Sod the models! 

[Ali1977]

The GEM nails it

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

It's been trending this way now for a while with much weaker heights over Greenland than first projected. Indeed we hardly see any Greenland high now it's gonevin 48 hrs. That's not a knee jerk it's been a trend for the last 3 days. No Greenland or Scandi heights and no cold spell really is the way I see it

Well that's not strictly true. The reason the lows are trending south is because modelling is seeing stronger forcing from the Greenland high, not less. 

There IS going to be a cold spell, next week will be cold with snow around. The only question is around incoming lows.

[IDO]

The breakdown has an inevitability about it with the Azores high pushing to Iberia around D6 and stalling due to the trough to its east. On previous runs it takes until past D11 before it can warm out the trough and move on its eatward journey:

That kills it for the UK. The UKMO has now moved to this solution. GEM also:

Edited March 4, 2023 by IDO

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I've seen enough to call it as a fail next week. No ppn around with the vast majority of us cold and dry. Agreement on a swift breakdown to mild and wet by Friday. What a tough Winter to endure with no change of fortune even with 2 warmings.

Would be nice in a way now to get something Spring like.

Absolutely, northern and eastern coasts may see snow showers but little to no precipitation showing for most places until the milder, wetter and windier weather steams in on Friday.  This is a consistent trend now thanks to the rising heights over Iberia which I and others have been harping on about for a while.  The hope for snow fans has to be that the end of the week low is shifted south, but this will be much harder as it's actually helping raise heights over Iberia.

[NewEra21]

Been saying it for days now but the initial northerly that was shown a few days ago was a very convective one with showers and features coming down the UK all over the place.

That has gradually been shortened and downgraded over the past few days, as we just don't maintain the flow long enough anymore before it goes all slack.

Edited March 4, 2023 by NewEra21

[Ali1977]

 

The ENS shift the feature south too , I was confident somewhere would get hit - the GEM needs some ECM backing

Edited March 4, 2023 by Ali1977

[nick sussex]

The UKMO if it verifies which of course is a big if is more likely to disrupt energy eastwards day 6 into 7 .

 

[alexisj9]

57 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Icon with multiple sliding lows, wouldn't want to be a pro forecaster next week, looks almost impossible to say where snow / rain line boundary will be

I'm more interested with what's happening just above the west moving lows, the lows moving east, and then swing back around, that really looks amazing, yes probably not too us weather wise, but it's not something you'll see often.

Edited March 4, 2023 by alexisj9

[sunnijim]

2 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

Been saying it for days now but the initial northerly that was shown a few days ago was a very convective one with showers and features coming down the UK all over the place.

That has gradually been shortened and downgraded over the past few days, as we just don't maintain the flow long enough anymore before it goes all slack.

The last 12 months have been slack meteorologicaly, so it should come as no surprise that anything dynamic has been watered down.

[Guest]

GEM loves a snow-fest. Unfortunately its (and all the other lower-resolution models) precipitation charts rarely verify as shown.

Whichever way you look at it, we're trending in the wrong direction. A less potent northerly, weaker disturbances, and milder air advecting in ahead of the breakdown low, which looks to ease away any cold before it digs its claws in.

[Cloud 10]

Day 9 GFS much of Scotland still buried.

 

[Mike Poole]

5 minutes ago, IDO said:

The breakdown has an inevitability about it with the Azores high pushing to Iberia around D6 and stalling due to the trough to its east. On previous runs it takes until past D11 before it can warm out the trough and move on its eatward journey:

That kills it for the UK. The UKMO has now moved to this solution. GEM also:

No sense of inevitability about anything at the moment!  An alternative hypothesis might be that the only reason heights are pushing into Iberia is because of the dartboard low in the Atlantic that the models have got wrong from quite early in the run.