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Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

Cheshire Freeze

By Cheshire Freeze
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please keep your posts to discussing the model output in this thread, and for more general winter weather chat please use the Spring chat, moans and ramps thread.

The model highlights thread is also available for a more concise view of the model discussions. 

Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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ANYWEATHER Maestro

ANYWEATHER

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
Posted

Not a lot of change from gfs and ecm overnight , wet and windy and milder for southern Britain on Thursday, then turning colder again before a renewed push of milder wet and windy for the weekend pushing further north this time to cover most of the UK......😐

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Lukesluckybunch Accomplished

Lukesluckybunch

Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
Posted (edited)

looks like south of m4 on the ICON6z...perhaps 1-3cm really pushing it though! lthis is tomorrow into thursday morning,then a lot of snow pushing into northern england..just keeps snowing in that area less so in scotland this run

Edited by Lukesluckybunch
adding
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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted
13 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The NAM the USA mesoscale model which covers just enough of the Atlantic to get an idea regarding the much talked about low has been trending south since last nights 18hrs run .

The 06 hrs run is even further south . We await the other 06 hrs outputs !

Wait what low is this? Thursdays??

Too many pressure systems to stay updated on!

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted (edited)

The ICON 06 hrs run is still further south at T66hrs compared to the UKMO fax chart for T72 hrs from 00hrs .

The latest GEM 06 hrs run isn’t interested in the UKMO fax chart view of things .

Edited by nick sussex
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ANYWEATHER Maestro

ANYWEATHER

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
Posted

Tomorrows precipitation according to UKV keeps most of the precipitation,  rain ,sleet, hill snow south of the M4....😨

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PiscesStar Rising Star

PiscesStar

Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
Posted
5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Icon 06z Finally falls in line with GFS/ECM with a smow event for the south tonight. A little marginal at times but at least overnight and in any heavier precip should be fine.

 

Omg. How could I miss that? For Kent? Can't see it on the gfs?? 

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weirpig Maestro

weirpig

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
Posted

Icon 6z  is actuall quite snow for part of the south  south east  wednesday early hours into Thursday      some may see a nice covering 

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted (edited)

Looking good for part 1 

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Map, Outdoors, Nature, Person, Face, Head, Atlas, Diagram

Edited by winterof79
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NorthYorksWeather Experienced

NorthYorksWeather

Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
Posted
4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ICON 06 hrs run is still further south at T66hrs compared to the UKMO fax chart for T72 hrs from 00hrs .

The latest GEM 06 hrs run isn’t interested in the UKMO fax chart view of things .

When comparing to the 0z a slight nudge north on the ICON 6z regarding Thursdays low. 
Could contain: Chart, Plot, Nature, Outdoors, Sea, Water, Map, Atlas, Diagram, LandCould contain: Nature, Outdoors, Sea, Water, Chart, Plot, Map, Hurricane, Storm

 

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted (edited)

Quite amazing differences between the outputs at just T66 hrs .

The GEM 06 hrs run below ! 

IMG_0654.thumb.GIF.eed0167e507827ca1e8b17e18320556b.GIF

The UKMO 00 hrs raw output at T72 hrs .

IMG_0653.thumb.GIF.784d24a7a5239205837942d3e8038765.GIF

And bearing in mind the UKMO fax chart has the low further north and deeper .

 

 

 

Edited by nick sussex
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PiscesStar Rising Star

PiscesStar

Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
Posted
2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Quite amazing differences between the outputs at just T66 hrs .

The GEM below ! 

IMG_0654.thumb.GIF.eed0167e507827ca1e8b17e18320556b.GIF

The UKMO 00 hrs raw output at T72 hrs .

IMG_0653.thumb.GIF.784d24a7a5239205837942d3e8038765.GIF

And bearing in mind the UKMO fax chart has the low further north and deeper .

 

 

 

What's the implications of the lows position in terms of delivery of snow to Kent as things stand Nick? 

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted
Just now, PiscesStar said:

What's the implications of the lows position in terms of delivery of snow to Kent as things stand Nick? 

Unfortunately we’re  not in the game for that low unless there was some astonishing turnaround .

The better chance for snow is Tuesday night into Wednesday . Higher ground favoured though for settling  . So a short drive into the Downs might be needed .

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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted

Eyes down for the GFS 06z. Will it continue the general theme of southerly corrections or will it deepen the low and take it to Tromso? Anything can happen!

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
5 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

Eyes down for the GFS 06z. Will it continue the general theme of southerly corrections or will it deepen the low and take it to Tromso? Anything can happen!

Or will it be delayed like it always is at the moment🤬🤬!!!

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throwoff Seasoned

throwoff

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Snow and more Snow!
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted

Almost all the charts for the south east have been wrong for the past 24 hours, it will be interesting to see if they can redeem themselves. 

The GFS12Z still fancies heavy snow overnight for most of the south...

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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted

You can bring your eyes back up now 😑

The GFS has given up. 

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DAVE_ALLEN Enthusiast

DAVE_ALLEN

Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Location: Godalming
Posted

Major upgrade just issued for more snow in the south via updated warning. . @nick sussex this defies the latest fax charts. One can only assume this evenings fax will have a significant adjustment.  
 

I admit I wasn’t expecting a significant upgrade in terms of warnings  for the south. 
 

it’s interesting to note. The snow risk has just crept north of the M4 as far as Luton northwards.  This northward movement is most likely a result of a deepening of the channel low. 

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, DAVE_ALLEN said:

Major upgrade just issued for more snow in the south via updated warning. . @nick sussex this defies the latest fax charts. One can only assume this evenings fax will have a significant adjustment.  
 

I admit I wasn’t expecting a significant upgrade in terms of warnings  for the south. 
 

it’s interesting to note. The snow risk has just crept north of the M4 as far as Luton northwards.  This northward movement is most likely a result of a deepening of the channel low. 

And they are unsure how far north it will go , expecting the GFS to shift north then. 

Could contain: Land, Nature, Outdoors, Plot, Sea, Water, Rainforest, Vegetation, Map, Atlas

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
Just now, Ali1977 said:

And they are unsure how far north it will go , expecting the GFS to shift north then. 

Could contain: Land, Nature, Outdoors, Plot, Sea, Water, Rainforest, Vegetation, Map, Atlas

Ali maybe those gfs means u posted earlier could prove to be correct!!!wouldnt be surprised if it gets extended even further north!!

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
Just now, sheikhy said:

Ali maybe those gfs means u posted earlier could prove to be correct!!!wouldnt be surprised if it gets extended even further north!!

Yeah I reckon it will go north on the day . 1-3cm in the early Wednesday band, 5-10cm in the later one. 👌
 

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weirpig Maestro

weirpig

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
Posted
2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Yeah I reckon it will go north on the day . 1-3cm in the early Wednesday band, 5-10cm in the later one. 👌
 

Interesting to see the matrix   just one off the amber warning.   I suspect this may change if the system moves slightly more north.

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