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Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

Cheshire Freeze

By Cheshire Freeze
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please keep your posts to discussing the model output in this thread, and for more general winter weather chat please use the Spring chat, moans and ramps thread.

The model highlights thread is also available for a more concise view of the model discussions. 

Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted

Nice charts GFS showing rate of snowfall cms per hour and depth.I swear i nearly peed as i posted these....must calm down

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near northampton Apprentice

near northampton

Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham
  • Location: Cheltenham
Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Going back to the future for a minute, that's a very cold chart next week.

Cheltenham goers will be getting nervous if that comes off.

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That chart is my big fear, racing fans do not want the weather interfering with the festival 

Edited by near northampton
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throwoff Seasoned

throwoff

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Snow and more Snow!
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Londonweymouth said:

Tbh I don’t think looking at the models many places in the south east will see much in the way of laying snow at all, perhaps some falling snow for a time tomorrow evening, but I think that’s about it looking at the models 

I think it depends who is right. UKMO fancy rain, GFS and icon fancy snow 

GFS fancy snow from about 1am for at least 8 hours..

Edited by throwoff
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DJ Fart Aficionado

DJ Fart

Posted
  • Location: Great Horkesley, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Great Horkesley, Essex
Posted
2 minutes ago, throwoff said:

I think it depends who is right. UKMO fancy rain, GFS and icon fancy snow 

Agreed. Nothing more than a slush fest on offer for the South East, but it was never really looking like anything else. Think I'll take a break from here for a bit and look forward to warmer weather. The NIMBY ramping is getting really tedious, despite mods repeatedly asking people to stop it.

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Updated_Weather Seasoned

Updated_Weather

Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
Posted
Just now, DJ Fart said:

Agreed. Nothing more than a slush fest on offer for the South East, but it was never really looking like anything else. Think I'll take a break from here for a bit and look forward to warmer weather. The NIMBY ramping is getting really tedious, despite mods repeatedly asking people to stop it.

You might see some snow based on your location. 

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
7 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Nice charts GFS showing rate of snowfall cms per hour and depth.I swear i nearly peed as i posted these....must calm down

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The problem is the UKMO is well South of this. Which is right?

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Londonweymouth Newbie

Londonweymouth

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Updated_Weather said:

You might see some snow based on your location. 

Seeing snow is a bit pointless if it’s dark and wet, hardly worth seeing, accumulating snow is unlikely away from higher ground, in fact some models don’t even produce snow on higher ground in the south east, I think it’s going to be a case of a bit of overkill tbh 

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Updated_Weather Seasoned

Updated_Weather

Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
Posted
Just now, Londonweymouth said:

Seeing snow is a bit pointless if it’s dark and wet, hardly worth seeing, accumulating snow is unlikely away from higher ground, in fact some models don’t even produce snow on higher ground in the south east, I think it’s going to be a case of a bit of overkill tbh 

Surprises can happen and also we had a decent snow event in early December! Can't be greedy.

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Lampostwatcher Seasoned

Lampostwatcher

Posted
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON
Posted
1 minute ago, Londonweymouth said:

Seeing snow is a bit pointless if it’s dark and wet, hardly worth seeing, accumulating snow is unlikely away from higher ground, in fact some models don’t even produce snow on higher ground in the south east, I think it’s going to be a case of a bit of overkill tbh 

Weymouth area yes

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
Just now, Updated_Weather said:

I know where I'd place my money on!

GEM a bit further South too, but not as much. Unless there is a change, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Northern England miss out.

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BLS Enthusiast

BLS

Posted
  • Location: Bearsted 70 Meters ASL
  • Location: Bearsted 70 Meters ASL
Posted

I wouldn’t write the SE off based on the recent model runs this afternoon! I expect some shift South still to happen just depends how much 

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Londonweymouth Newbie

Londonweymouth

Posted
Posted
Just now, Updated_Weather said:

Surprises can happen and also we had a decent snow event in early December! Can't be greedy.

Oh no the December snow was much better than what’s being shown now! Tbh the snow we had in December was at the best time to get it! We also had ice days with it! Here in south Essex had -1 as a max temp during that spell obviously warmer this time around and that’s what makes it more marginal plus if it did settle it will melt very quickly with the mild air coming in behind 

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Mark wheeler Maestro

Mark wheeler

Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Popular Post
Posted

Meanwhile 😁😃🧐😮😮

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DJ Fart Aficionado

DJ Fart

Posted
  • Location: Great Horkesley, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Great Horkesley, Essex
Posted
4 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Surprises can happen and also we had a decent snow event in early December! Can't be greedy.

It wasn't great in Colchester at all, especially compared to just a few miles down the road. 

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted
7 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The problem is the UKMO is well South of this. Which is right?

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Updated_Weather Seasoned

Updated_Weather

Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
Posted
Just now, DJ Fart said:

It wasn't great in Colchester at all, especially compared to just a few miles down the road. 

I lived in Braintree then, now in Colchester - I am optimistic we will have some snow.
But then again, I am not bothered about accumulation. 

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lewis clark Explorer

lewis clark

Posted
  • Location: Hullbridge,essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/storms
  • Location: Hullbridge,essex
Posted

Early hours now looking good I'm quietly confident we'll see some good snow tomorrow at least

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The Northern Ramper Accomplished

The Northern Ramper

Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
Posted
47 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Going back to the future for a minute, that's a very cold chart next week.

Cheltenham goers will be getting nervous if that comes off.

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Already am

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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted (edited)

Regarding the LP (UKMO) on Friday, looking at the jet it does want to take it more on a Southerly track. 

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Edited by Stuie
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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted
2 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

You got the precipitation chart with that?

Gawd know if that verifies lol

 

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Mark wheeler Maestro

Mark wheeler

Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

You got the precipitation chart with that?

Not as good as I thought it would be . Some hefty amounts of snow in the north though. Long way off though and other models are not really supportive at this juncture.

edit

- Thanks @winterof79 that's a better image than the one I could find 👍.

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Edited by Mark wheeler
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Liam Burge Rising Star

Liam Burge

Posted
  • Location: Bristol // Bridgwater
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bristol // Bridgwater
  • Popular Post
Posted
18 minutes ago, Londonweymouth said:

Seeing snow is a bit pointless if it’s dark and wet, hardly worth seeing, accumulating snow is unlikely away from higher ground, in fact some models don’t even produce snow on higher ground in the south east, I think it’s going to be a case of a bit of overkill tbh 

I think we have a different thread for you

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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted (edited)

FAX chart for Friday 00. (midnight Thurs) 528 DAM mid Scotland.

fax60s.thumb.gif.6db429b75e239e92b22bcdbe99f9d2c2.gif

Edited by Stuie
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