Year when every month started becoming milder than average more frequently?

[Sunny76]

It looks like the early 70s, between 71-74 must have recorded a number of above average months. 
 

After that period, 1982 would be the first year where warmer than average months started to become more frequent over a longer period of months.

[Thundery wintry showers]

In the case of the UK I think it started around 1988-1990.  1988 on its own wasn't remarkable, but by 1990 we'd had three mild winters in a row and both 1989 and 1990 had been warm for much of the year.  I don't think the early to mid-1970s were as convincing, as although they did contain a run of mild winters and 1975 and 1976 had hot summers, there were quite a few cold springs, summers and autumns in that period.

Globally, the current warming trend started off rather earlier, I reckon it set in around 1980.  Global temperatures were at or near record high levels through late 1979 and 1980, and then moved into uncharted territory in 1981.  The upward trend through the 1980s as well as the 1990s becomes clear if you remove El Nino-related variability.

[LetItSnow!]

1 hour ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

In the case of the UK I think it started around 1988-1990.  1988 on its own wasn't remarkable, but by 1990 we'd had three mild winters in a row and both 1989 and 1990 had been warm for much of the year.  I don't think the early to mid-1970s were as convincing, as although they did contain a run of mild winters and 1975 and 1976 had hot summers, there were quite a few cold springs, summers and autumns in that period.

Globally, the current warming trend started off rather earlier, I reckon it set in around 1980.  Global temperatures were at or near record high levels through late 1979 and 1980, and then moved into uncharted territory in 1981.  The upward trend through the 1980s as well as the 1990s becomes clear if you remove El Nino-related variability.

I find it interesting looking at international data around the time of the late-1970s. Because of the cold summers and winters of the late 1970s and much of the 1980s here, it's easy to forget the warming trend started much earlier. Across America 1977 was an interesting year, brutal cold in January but then a lot of that year was very warm with an ananomously mild February, record warm spring in places, the summer was quite hot as well.

The climate worldwide seemed to shift extremely rapidly at this time from cold to warm. The USA warmed up faster than us it seemed and some of their '80s winters were exceptionally mild though not everywhere, also some scorching summers (1977, 1978, 1980, 1983, 1986, 1987, 1988 and 1989 all brought hot and drought summers at least somewhere - perhaps a knock on effect of why so many of our summers were so poor?).

[LetItSnow!]

On 27/02/2023 at 21:39, Sunny76 said:

It looks like the early 70s, between 71-74 must have recorded a number of above average months. 
 

After that period, 1982 would be the first year where warmer than average months started to become more frequent over a longer period of months.

1982 does stand out for a long period of warmer than average months - indeed 1982 was the warmest year since 1976, but many of the months were just generally above average but occasionally tipped into exceptional territory, like June 1982.

 It was a pretty warm year for most of Europe and the summer was quite a hot one just to our south, but we never quite to enjoy it due to June's wetness and eventually August being very Augusty.  

[damianslaw]

4 hours ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

In the case of the UK I think it started around 1988-1990.  1988 on its own wasn't remarkable, but by 1990 we'd had three mild winters in a row and both 1989 and 1990 had been warm for much of the year.  I don't think the early to mid-1970s were as convincing, as although they did contain a run of mild winters and 1975 and 1976 had hot summers, there were quite a few cold springs, summers and autumns in that period.

Globally, the current warming trend started off rather earlier, I reckon it set in around 1980.  Global temperatures were at or near record high levels through late 1979 and 1980, and then moved into uncharted territory in 1981.  The upward trend through the 1980s as well as the 1990s becomes clear if you remove El Nino-related variability.

Wasn't there talk of a mini ice age in the 1970s, or a cold period.. alas as a 10 year old in 1988 we were already be taught about the greenhouse effect and holes in the ozone coinciding with a marked change in the climate to something much warmer and drier overall winter 1988 to summer 1992. Since then such weather has been a common feature for lengthy periods, apart from 1996, and the 2008-2013 period which did deliver quite sustained colder weather at times, the trend has been to mild.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

I am guessing around the late 1980s, as that is when mild winters started to become the norm.

[Sunny76]

7 hours ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

In the case of the UK I think it started around 1988-1990.  1988 on its own wasn't remarkable, but by 1990 we'd had three mild winters in a row and both 1989 and 1990 had been warm for much of the year.  I don't think the early to mid-1970s were as convincing, as although they did contain a run of mild winters and 1975 and 1976 had hot summers, there were quite a few cold springs, summers and autumns in that period.

Globally, the current warming trend started off rather earlier, I reckon it set in around 1980.  Global temperatures were at or near record high levels through late 1979 and 1980, and then moved into uncharted territory in 1981.  The upward trend through the 1980s as well as the 1990s becomes clear if you remove El Nino-related variability.

Late 1979 recorded some very mild temps and overnight ones in late November and early December that year.

1980 however had a mild February, cold March, warm spring, poor summer but a cool dull august with warm nights(sounds like some recent summers)

The US was enduring it’s hottest summer ever in 1980, and one that took some beating, and only 2011 has beaten it.

[Dark Horse]

I think it can be argued that because we haven't had a Winter like 62-63 since, then it was probably the mid 60's when the milder change slowly started. Because there was plenty of unusally snowless years in the early to mid 70's and it was only later in the decade it turned colder. Which carried on until the mid 80s then from late 1987 it turned milder before turning colder again early 90's to mid 90's. Then we had that long relatively milder spell from about 1997 until 2008 (longest mild spell). And colder again from late 2008 through into spring 2013. I have noticed that colder winters often mean colder summers beforehand, not always but there seems to be a bit of a pattern there. Mid 80's were cool summers but had cold snowy winters. My mum said it never stopped raining in the summer of 1985 after I was born in the June and she had the gas fire on early in the month just before I was born, had 3 terrible summer on the trot. We had similar cool and or wet summers between 2008-2012 but again cold snowy winters afterwards.

Edited March 2, 2023 by Dark Horse

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, Dark Horse said:

I think it can be argued that because we haven't had a Winter like 62-63 since, then it was probably the mid 60's when the milder change slowly started. Because there was plenty of unusally snowless years in the early to mid 70's and it was only later in the decade it turned colder. Which carried on until the mid 80s then from late 1987 it turned milder before turning colder again early 90's to mid 90's. Then we had that long relatively milder spell from about 1997 until 2008 (longest mild spell). And colder again from late 2008 through into spring 2013. I have noticed that colder winters often mean colder summers beforehand, not always but there seems to be a bit of a pattern there. Mid 80's were cool summers but had cold snowy winters. My mum said it never stopped raining in the summer of 1985 after I was born in the June and she had the gas fire on early in the month just before I was born, had 3 terrible summer on the trot. We had similar cool and or wet summers between 2008-2012 but again cold snowy winters afterwards.

I think we may see a return to that soon. But, since 1987 the frequency of milder months has definitely increased. 
 

I don’t like the fact we have to endure cool or average summers to have a better shot at cold snowy winters. 
 

 

1 hour ago, Dark Horse said:

I think it can be argued that because we haven't had a Winter like 62-63 since, then it was probably the mid 60's when the milder change slowly started. Because there was plenty of unusally snowless years in the early to mid 70's and it was only later in the decade it turned colder. Which carried on until the mid 80s then from late 1987 it turned milder before turning colder again early 90's to mid 90's. Then we had that long relatively milder spell from about 1997 until 2008 (longest mild spell). And colder again from late 2008 through into spring 2013. I have noticed that colder winters often mean colder summers beforehand, not always but there seems to be a bit of a pattern there. Mid 80's were cool summers but had cold snowy winters. My mum said it never stopped raining in the summer of 1985 after I was born in the June and she had the gas fire on early in the month just before I was born, had 3 terrible summer on the trot. We had similar cool and or wet summers between 2008-2012 but again cold snowy winters afterwards.

2000-01 was colder at times, and some periods between 2003-05 had some chilly periods in between the hot summer spells.

2005/06 was cold also, so I wouldn’t agree with it being mild all the way from 97-2008.

[Dark Horse]

52 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

I think we may see a return to that soon. But, since 1987 the frequency of milder months has definitely increased. 
 

I don’t like the fact we have to endure cool or average summers to have a better shot at cold snowy winters. 
 

 

2000-01 was colder at times, and some periods between 2003-05 had some chilly periods in between the hot summer spells.

2005/06 was cold also, so I wouldn’t agree with it being mild all the way from 97-2008.

True but they weren't long lasting cold spells just short bursts of cold. Especially when you compare them to the ones in 2008-2013. Nationwide the latter ones were far more widespread and longer lasting imo.

[Weather-history]

After the winter of 1947 ended during mid-March, mild/warmth dominated all the way  into 1950

 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

98/99 for winters

Edited March 2, 2023 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Rob 79812010]

After 1970 from what I've read there were mild winters up to 1976! Think it's right as when I was at Primary school I don't remember snow at all. All kicked off in the late 1970's!!

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

After the winter of 1947 ended during mid-March, mild/warmth dominated all the way  into 1950

 

 

1947 started off severe, and the summer that followed was hot, especially August, and the warmth as you say remained until 1950.

Fast forward 40 years to 1987, a similar January spell, followed by a cold early spring, and a warm up in April. The summer was very poor, but this lead to a milder winter and a warmer than average period for the next few years.

Lets wait and see what January 2027 gives us.

2 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:

After 1970 from what I've read there were mild winters up to 1976! Think it's right as when I was at Primary school I don't remember snow at all. All kicked off in the late 1970's!!

Between world war 2 and 1970, almost every other year saw snowfall even in the south.

After 1970, the gap starts to widen between snowfall years.

1971 definitely stands out as a the first year when milder weather seemed to stay around for much longer. 

[Optimus Prime]

The early - mid 70's certainly were mild with regards to winter (avg is 4.1). Generally speaking due to the run of mild December's.

69/70 - 2.96 

70/71 - 4.43 

71/72 - 4.93

72/73 - 4.86

73/74 - 5.43

74/75 - 6.40

75/76 - 5.16

76/77 - 3.23

[SLEETY]

1987

Most winter months above average since then.Pathetic.

[Snowyowl9]

On 01/03/2023 at 15:48, LetItSnow! said:

1982 does stand out for a long period of warmer than average months - indeed 1982 was the warmest year since 1976,

Nobody is going to remember that...

As 1982  will be famous remembered for its coldest night ever set in january..

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Nobody is going to remember that...

As 1982  will be famous remembered for its coldest night ever set in january..

The year was warmer than average though, despite the very cold start.

[LetItSnow!]

4 hours ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Nobody is going to remember that...

As 1982  will be famous remembered for its coldest night ever set in january..

The point isn’t that people will remember it, it’s just that it’s easily found data that goes along with the current topic which I think is surely of interest. 

[damianslaw]

3 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

The point isn’t that people will remember it, it’s just that it’s easily found data that goes along with the current topic which I think is surely of interest. 

Think the warmth was attributed to a super el nino?

[TheOgre]

On 02/03/2023 at 21:38, Sunny76 said:

1947 started off severe, and the summer that followed was hot, especially August, and the warmth as you say remained until 1950.

Fast forward 40 years to 1987, a similar January spell, followed by a cold early spring, and a warm up in April. The summer was very poor, but this lead to a milder winter and a warmer than average period for the next few years.

Fast forward 26 years to 2013 and again we saw a very cold and snowy January to March, a cool spring, then a hot and dry July and after that it was warm all the way through 2014 (although we didn’t see any notable cold until 2018).

Edited March 5, 2023 by TheOgre

[Snowyowl9]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Think the warmth was attributed to a super el nino?

Good point..I never heard anyrhing about El nino until 1997..

El nino came into public awareness in 1997 and that was an extreme event...

The El Nino is apparently related to the increasing volcanic action along the ocean floor. Its source is in the volcanic region of Indonesia. From there it makes its way east along the equator until it reaches South America. Weather patterns associated with El Nino usually do not affect USA until in mid January. Whether present unusual weather patterns are related to El Nino is uncertain. They may be connected with the general change in weather patterns taking place.

To determine if there were a correlation between undersea earthquakes and the El Nino phenomena, I executed a query excluding Richter 5+ earthquakes and earthquakes deeper than 50km in the El Nino area of the Pacific from 1970-2000, since stronger and deeper earthquakes rarely indicate volcanic eruptions. This seems reasonable to me, since we're looking here for a connection between volcanic eruptions and El Nino. This very interesting graph shows earthquakes in the area east of Indonesia, where El Nino originates. The graph shows extreme peaks in 1982 and 1995-98, that correlates with the 1982-83 and 1997-98 extreme El Ninos. From this I conclude that the idea of El Nino being caused by under sea volcanoes is correct.

Edited March 5, 2023 by Snowyowl9

[LetItSnow!]

1 hour ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Good point..I never heard anyrhing about El nino until 1997..

El nino came into public awareness in 1997 and that was an extreme event...

The El Nino is apparently related to the increasing volcanic action along the ocean floor. Its source is in the volcanic region of Indonesia. From there it makes its way east along the equator until it reaches South America. Weather patterns associated with El Nino usually do not affect USA until in mid January. Whether present unusual weather patterns are related to El Nino is uncertain. They may be connected with the general change in weather patterns taking place.

To determine if there were a correlation between undersea earthquakes and the El Nino phenomena, I executed a query excluding Richter 5+ earthquakes and earthquakes deeper than 50km in the El Nino area of the Pacific from 1970-2000, since stronger and deeper earthquakes rarely indicate volcanic eruptions. This seems reasonable to me, since we're looking here for a connection between volcanic eruptions and El Nino. This very interesting graph shows earthquakes in the area east of Indonesia, where El Nino originates. The graph shows extreme peaks in 1982 and 1995-98, that correlates with the 1982-83 and 1997-98 extreme El Ninos. From this I conclude that the idea of El Nino being caused by under sea volcanoes is correct.

Very insightful. Thank you for this, it's very interesting to theorise.

[Weather-history]

On 02/03/2023 at 21:28, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

98/99 for winters

1997-98 had a CET of 6.0°C

 

[reef]

Definitely 1988/89. Before then you always had the odd warm month / season / year, but after it was much more frequent.

There have only been 8 years since 1989 which had an annual CET below 10.0C. Before that there were only 33 years since 1659 to have a CET above 10.0C.

As for mild winters, those "mild" winters from 1971-1976, compared to the 1991-2020 average would be -0.4C, +0.1C,+0.1C, +0.6C, +1.6C, +0.4C. Basically all close to average apart from 1974/75. That's how things have changed. The same applies to summer: a recent "poor/average" summer like 2021 had a mean temp just 0.4C below one remembered fondly such as 1975.