Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Summer8906]

12 hours ago, B87 said:

I'd happily take a summer like 1996. June was warmer than average and very sunny, with July and August seeing close to normal temperatures and sunshine. 2005 was another summer following the same pattern.

Indeed. 1996 and 2005 were better than any summer since 2007, with the exception of 2018 and 2022 (2013 and 2014 were about the same).

Edited May 1, 2023 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

9 hours ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:

If that means a mild winter I am well up for it  . I just can't stand the cold. I really really hate it.

Only problem with winter mildness (except Feb) is that it's strongly correlated with dull and wet.

How about warm and sunny for every month from June until next April, with the exception of Nov, Dec and Jan (cold and sunny)? Good compromise?

[Summer8906]

3 hours ago, Alderc said:

Some pretty depressing model output around again, from Thursday onwards nothing but rain, cloud and west or north westerly winds. First half of May looks like joining the rest of spring in the ‘awful’ category! 

Less dire from about the 10th on the GFS 0z in the sense that it gives slack pressure (N-lies and E-lies dominating) and an upper cold pool. Not warm, and doubtless slow moving thundery downpours, so not ideal (thundery is better if associated with warmth and sunshine) but not without interest. Better than a tedious succession of frontal rainfall separated by dull conditions, which is my interpretation of the weather for next weekend on GFS and ECM 00z.

ECM is also somewhat less bad from around Tues next week with pressure rising. It's a coolish WNW but at least pressure is higher.

They all seem to agree though that the coronation weekend will be the depths of the bad spell with a miserable rainfest, whatever happens after that. The curse of bad weather for royal events continues, it seems!

Edited May 1, 2023 by Summer8906

[stainesbloke]

9 hours ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

This is what we want!! Not 20c+. Not that some abcde on here would believe us

It felt lovely in the sun, a bit too chilly in the shade though. Today is forecast to reach 19-20°C here, absolutely perfect for early May 

[Summer8906]

11 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

Cloudy summers are still poor. Even if it’s warmer than average, I won’t remember a summer that’s cloudy and lacking in sunshine. 

Absolutely. Most of these "warmer than average" cloudy summers in recent years have only been warm due to mild nights and short-lived heat spikes.

Summers 2019, 2020 and 2021 in particular were like that, and all were varying degrees of poor.

2016 and 2017 were half and half I guess, but even those were cloudy. A summer consisting of the first half of 2017 and second half of 2016 would be good for warmth and relative lack of rainfall, but still a little on the cloudy side. On the other hand the first half of 2016 and second of 2017.. well that sounds like a milder version of the "legendary" 1956.

2015 was another cloudy summer, as were, IIRC, all of 2007-12 overall. So it really has been a poor 15 years post-2006.

Unless something changes in the next few years, I suspect the average sunshine totals for summer months for the 2001-30 period will be significantly down on other 30-year periods.

 

Edited May 1, 2023 by Summer8906

[Glaswegianblizzard]

Sounds like you’re all having a west of Scotland spring. You’re all saying pretty much what I say to myself pretty much annually at this time of year, only to remember last year was much the same. Chin up, it does change eventually.

 

[Summer8906]

9 minutes ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:

Sounds like you’re all having a west of Scotland spring. You’re all saying pretty much what I say to myself pretty much annually at this time of year, only to remember last year was much the same. Chin up, it does change eventually.

 

To be honest I thought the west of Scotland often had it good in the second half of spring at least, due to frequent easterly winds and high pressure!

[seabreeze86]

13 hours ago, CreweCold said:

For here the experience has been of a bland April with very little going on. Not wet, not cold, not warm, not sunny. Just meh. 

Nearly the same here but with a cold wind from the North Sea it has made in feel cold throughout 

Edited May 1, 2023 by seabreeze86

[Summer8906]

Meanwhile, today, unexpectedly dull and gloomy.

I was anticipating the chance of heavy downpours developing during the day, but would have expected it to be fine until around 10 or 11, at least.

Meanwhile the bad weather seems to be arriving earlier and earlier with each passing run. Thursday now seems an unambiguous washout, with the synoptics very like last Thursday. I wouldn't bet against rain arriving Wednesday evening now, cutting the settled days of the week down to just one - Tuesday.

All that said, even with the dreary weather today, I have little faith in next weekend looking at the GFS or ECM 00z, so will be going out this afternoon unless really torrential downpours develop.

Edited May 1, 2023 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

9 hours ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

And the 80’s, single pained windows, remember the ice forming on the windows well, absolutely freezing, I remember shivering in bed as a little one 

I remember ice inside the house, on windows, in January 1987.

We did have central heating (and always had it going back to the 70s), but I don't think double glazing was a thing, so presumably the cold just "got in".

In fact I seem to remember the house got cold in Jan 1987 (more so than other cold spells, presumably due to the intensity of the cold), the central heating was inadequate, and we had to use an electric heater.

Edited May 1, 2023 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

11 hours ago, Alderc said:

Problem is people were tough then, all the woke, the weak, the benefits fraudsters would all perish in their millions now. I hate the cold but would deal with it!

Bit political!

As for me, well I think that the fraudsters are higher up in society. Certainly not benefits claimants. But I'd best stop there...

Edited May 1, 2023 by Summer8906

[Guest]

Satellite imagery shows a swath of cloud covering the country, as usual this spring more so than expected. As usual I suspect there’ll be winner and losers on where this breaks and it’ll make a massive difference in temps. 
 

I just re looked at the models, they are awful for May. First half looks very unsettled and almost zero chance of anything warm and sunny. In the south at least we really should start leaving the low teens daytime temps behind now and 20C should become more frequent, no the case in the next two weeks though. 

Edited May 1, 2023 by Alderc

[Summer8906]

10 hours ago, B87 said:

Yep, 20c and sunny on Christmas Day 

Physically impossible here I suspect, about as likely as snow and 5C on June 25th!

Edited May 1, 2023 by Summer8906

[Arctic Hare]

I see we've being doing the "we used to walk 346 miles uphill in t'snow an' then our dad would freeze us to death wi' liquid helium when we got 'ome, but we was 'appy" thing. I do remember as a kid in January 1982 the dregs of some coffee that my dad had accidentally left in the kitchen overnight being frozen in the morning. But I wasn't 'appy at all, I was delighted when we moved to a house with central heating a few years later!

Overcast here again this morning (shock horror) but at least not as utterly gloomy as it's been so often this year and acceptably mild for 10am at 12 °C. If, and it's a huge massive ginormous if, the cloud actually does break this afternoon and we avoid rain then it could be a reasonable day to start a new month with.

[Summer8906]

10 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

You can bet your bottom dollar next Christmas will be very mild, due to El Niño. 

Hoping not, as very mild almost always equals dull and wet in early/mid winter, and by mid-May we'll have had enough dull and wet for an entire year! Makes it all the more important that summer and autumn are very sunny and dry. Hoping the SSW and El Niño don't conspire between themselves to completely wreck 2023's weather!

On the brighter side, the most famous El Niño year was 1997/98 and that featured a prolonged spell of mostly fine weather for four months, from July to October. Let's have a repeat of that this year (but please, no June 1997!)

Edited May 1, 2023 by Summer8906

[In Absence of True Seasons]

Saturday was a great day, first day in so long that felt genuinely Spring lake. Yesterday was not bad either, but clouded over thick by afternoon and then showers in the evening.

Today, thick cloud blanket and potential showers and looks the same over the next couple of days.

When I checked yesterday, the forecast actually had a few consistent days of partial sun coming up, but its now changed overnight to now be cloud and rain. Hence why there's no point paying much attention to what's predicted for next weekend. It can all change in the space of a 12 hour period lol. More value in sticking your head out the window than looking at the British weather forecast. 

[In Absence of True Seasons]

18 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I just re looked at the models, they are awful for May. First half looks very unsettled and almost zero chance of anything warm and sunny. In the south at least we really should start leaving the low teens daytime temps behind now and 20C should become more frequent, no the case in the next two weeks though. 

Really dire, just a continuation of the pattern that has dominated this whole Spring tbh, especially in the South. 

My "hope for the best" mindset towards this is that the sheer, unwavering inaccuracy of the forecast in this country could mean that the weather over the next 10 days may end up being very different to what's predicted.

But admittedly, I've had it countless times where when the forecast looks to be pleasant, it'll end up being wrong and then gets downgraded at the last moment, and when the forecast is bad, it ends up being an accurate prediction.

[PeteG]

14 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Yeah and I hope the coming winter is colder than 62/63

No thanks! 8 or 9 weeks of temperatures below freezing for long periods and just above on a few days. Waiting for the school bus in the cold and having a couple of inches of snow around the New Year which was "topped up" by the odd light shower in Jan and Feb but it hung around until early March.

Ice on the inside of the bedroom window many mornings - the result of no central heating or double glazing. Sitting in the living room with the fire going so you were warm on the front but anything not in direct line of the heat from the fire was distinctly chilly. The death toll for those without the resources to keep themselves or their children warm would be awful - there are many struggling now without having to cope with arctic temperatures for a long period.

The country couldn't cope with 6 or more weeks of bitter weather now as we are so reliant on food and heating being readily available and very few people have fireplaces which would enable them to burn wood etc if their heating/electricity failed.

[Summer8906]

17 minutes ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Saturday was a great day, first day in so long that felt genuinely Spring lake. Yesterday was not bad either, but clouded over thick by afternoon and then showers in the evening.

Indeed, a real sense on Friday evening in fact that we had finally entered the summer half-year. This was helped by forecasts and models at the time suggesting warm and bright weather only interrupted by potentially heavy, but scattered, showers - including next weekend too with the low staying south over France.

With dull, gloomy and not especially warm (though less fussed about that) conditions since, it now seems we're still stuck in the winter half-year. Given that the diametrically-opposed point in the year is dark and often gloomy early November, that is worrying!

17 minutes ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Today, thick cloud blanket and potential showers and looks the same over the next couple of days.

When I checked yesterday, the forecast actually had a few consistent days of partial sun coming up, but its now changed overnight to now be cloud and rain. Hence why there's no point paying much attention to what's predicted for next weekend. It can all change in the space of a 12 hour period lol. More value in sticking your head out the window than looking at the British weather forecast. 

I certainly hope so!

Edited May 1, 2023 by Summer8906

[B87]

1 hour ago, Summer8906 said:

Absolutely. Most of these "warmer than average" cloudy summers in recent years have only been warm due to mild nights and short-lived heat spikes.

Summers 2019, 2020 and 2021 in particular were like that, and all were varying degrees of poor.

2016 and 2017 were half and half I guess, but even those were cloudy. A summer consisting of the first half of 2017 and second half of 2016 would be good for warmth and relative lack of rainfall, but still a little on the cloudy side. On the other hand the first half of 2016 and second of 2017.. well that sounds like a milder version of the "legendary" 1956.

2015 was another cloudy summer, as were, IIRC, all of 2007-12 overall. So it really has been a poor 15 years post-2006.

Unless something changes in the next few years, I suspect the average sunshine totals for summer months for the 2001-30 period will be significantly down on other 30-year periods.

 

Is this using the raw uncorrected sunshine values that are displayed on the Met Office website? The 'true' sunshine hours vary from 106% of the raw average in winter, to 114% in July. The sunshine recording equipment changed there 2006, and under-records sunshine.

The 1991-2020 sunshine averages are actually about 40 hours higher than the 81-10 period.

Edited May 1, 2023 by B87

[SunSean]

22 minutes ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Really dire, just a continuation of the pattern that has dominated this whole Spring tbh, especially in the South. 

My "hope for the best" mindset towards this is that the sheer, unwavering inaccuracy of the forecast in this country could mean that the weather over the next 10 days may end up being very different to what's predicted.

But admittedly, I've had it countless times where when the forecast looks to be pleasant, it'll end up being wrong and then gets downgraded at the last moment, and when the forecast is bad, it ends up being an accurate prediction.

100% noticed this myself. A run of fine and settled sunny weather forecast 6 days away? No chance. A run of unsettled gloomy and wet weather forecast 6 days away? Absolute banker.

[northriding]

Bah gawd, just caught sight of some morning blue sky!  Crying shame I gotta look out to sea to see a few breaks in the cloud..

[ANYWEATHER]

Well you know what they say "Every Cloud Has A Silver Lining"

[Summer8906]

36 minutes ago, B87 said:

Is this using the raw uncorrected sunshine values that are displayed on the Met Office website? The 'true' sunshine hours vary from 106% of the raw average in winter, to 114% in July. The sunshine recording equipment changed there 2006, and under-records sunshine.

The 1991-2020 sunshine averages are actually about 40 hours higher than the 81-10 period.

I am not sure, these are based on memory after looking at the stats after the event, so should have qualified with "IIRC" if I did not. But I'm pretty confident that the only summers to exceed long-term sunshine totals (however measured) in this part of southern England in the past 15 years have been 2013, 2014, 2018 and 2022.

But my perception of the past 15 years is that they have been much cloudier than the 1989-2006 period in the summer, so I suspect it's not just due to a change in measurement.

Edited May 1, 2023 by Summer8906

[TwisterGirl81]

It’s sunny in Exeter and actually feels warm! well I’ll be….

mind you I think it’s 16c so far which to me is just mild, just goes to show how acclimatised we’ve got to cool temps this spring of lots of 12c days 

Edited May 1, 2023 by TwisterGirl81