Model discussion highlights

[Mike Poole]

Things are continuing to gather momentum this morning on the ECM clusters.  T192-T240:

The Euro trough now in place by day 9 across the clusters,  The build of heights towards Greenland is most evident on cluster 3, all clusters have a strong northerly component to the flow by day 10.

T264+:

Cluster 1 here has the strong Greenland block from yesterday and has 22 members.  Cluster 2 hugs this closer to Iceland extending to Scandi and draws in an easterly, has 15 members.

Cluster 3 ends up with a UK high and cluster 4 westerly then builds another Atlantic ridge.

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5027310

[Cambrian]

Ah, if only we could get the EPS on board within the 10 day timeframe with this idea of a trough set up to the east of us, digging south into Europe and completely flushing out the heights from Iberia, a surface low pressure over Denmark, with cold air spilling south on a northerly flow into the UK and Ireland…

  

…and the cold, cyclonic pattern solidly indicated for several days now in these ensemble means beginning to feed through to the ops from day 9… 0z ECM, GEM

 

…and some helpful EC46 outputs for the next two weeks showing the establishment of a trough working south out of Scandinavia into Europe with heights rising to the northwest, not over Iberia…

 

…and those pesky ECM temperature anomaly charts to actually show clear cold through the middle to end of February…

 

…and a growing NAO- signal on the regimes forecast alternating with blocking and Atlantic ridge signals from around 1 weeks time through to the middle of March…

…then it might be worth getting just a little bit interested. 

But until there’s a core trend like that, I’ll be more swayed by single run outputs like the 6z GFS op…

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5027347

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

From my recent post in the Scottish thread

''With the influence of more of a -PNA paired to MJO phase 6 I'd not be shocked seeing potential for a storm as the associated troughing crosses the UK between February 8th > 12th"

Exciting scenarios appearing within this timeframe, dependant on orientation of the low(s) but definitely potential here for a snowstorm - blizzard within the UK / possibly Ireland.

Also increased threat of flash flooding into Portugal and extending across southern Europe in association with an increasingly strengthening Jet Stream in this region also within that timeframe.

With continuing phase 6 starting to transition into phase 7 and pairing to a re emerging and strengthening +PNA as we get toward and past Mid February there will be lots of tantalising charts

 

Absolutely Textbook El Ninò, simply stunning 500hpa evolutions

 

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5027650

[bluearmy]

Way too complex a scenario for the nwp to suss out atm 

two bites at the cherry next week 

Thereafter still looking like Atlantic ridge and sceuro trough although the atlantic ridge is further east on the eps than ideal

geps the best by day 15/16

events in the strat may have Aaron back soon - signs of a displacement followed by split and the momentum from gfs is for that split to be pretty much all on the Asian side.  With a strongly coupled strat/trop profile - seen today on the gfs back end .

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5027872

[MJB]

 

Well worth a watch 

 

 

 

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5028008

[johnholmes]

Sorry I don't usually repeat my posts but I missed a part off, quite significant so here it is

Not a full post but just showing the latest NOAA 6-14 day charts. Both have a gneral rather cold westerly 500 MB pattern. Not yet showing any signal for deep cold from a northerly point.

The contour over southern England on the 6-10 day is 534 DM which is quite cold so even lower further north. Any ppn in the north would likely be snow and over most hills further south possibly lower at times depending on the actual synoptic pattern.

Add there is a -ve height anomaly over the UK. In spite of the broad westerly at 500 mb this may be a signal for a surface feature to be over/east of the UK. Perhaps picking up on my highlighted original post. Maybe the ECMWF output may show this, I'll go have a look.

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5027994

[WYorksWeather]

ECM seems to want to blow up more of a mild sector on the mean further north between 8th and 10th, whereas GFS didn't really show this. Ridiculous variation in the extended as well.

The meteogram for Reading is also showing only a modest drop below average in terms of temperature.

As others have said, no signal for prolonged or deep cold. Details of next week's chances are still to be ironed out I think.

Looking at the mean chart to try to get a sense of the synoptics.

At day 5, we see the Iberian high start to retreat, and colder air is coming in behind it. 850s don't map on exactly to snow chances, but you would say that anywhere above the -4C line has a chance through northern England.

 

at day 7 the Iberian high has retreated away, but mild air is still hanging on in the south. Near average across England, and a little colder in Scotland. Shows how the subtle differences in the ECM compared to the GFS affect our chances - a couple of degrees higher with the 850s may well render any snow a very marginal event. Details matter.

 

At day 9, the high clears away to our east. We have quite an odd situation, with no real blocking, but the cold air solidifies. With most of the UK under -4C at 850hPa there's a chance that any lying snow at this point could hang around through this period.

 

By day 11 though, all change. Our old friend, the Iberian high, starts to make a comeback. Not mild, but less cold air begins to move in from the west.

 

At day 13 though, it's still not quite as annoyingly positioned. An Iberian high centred over the Mediterranean keeps the very mild air further away. However, we're back to standard winter fare - a bit of brightness maybe under a UK high?

 

And the day 15 chart is much the same.

 

In summary, the ECM is going for the best of any cold and snow chances to be next week, and after the low clears, possibly a cooler zonal flow, but not overly cold for the time of year.

Hard to know exactly what to make of this, as there is a lot of averaging going on of course in the mean charts, but it strikes me as reasonably plausible. It would also fit with the fact that EC46 has tonight erased the cold signal over the UK after week 2. Of course, EC46 is not the only game in town, and for a bit of optimism, the CFSv2 actually maintains the cold signal through late February (admittedly, it's not a very strong signal, only up to 1C below average, but it is still there).

Lots more still to figure out over the coming days. Things I'll be following over the next few days:

• Whether any date records will go over the next three or four days of exceptionally mild conditions
• Snow chances for the middle of next week
• Whether the cold will continue beyond mid-month

I probably have about another two weeks of cold chasing in me (with a short extension for a week or two in the unlikely event that we have a BFTE incoming).

At that point, I'll switch to hunting for the first widespread 20C of the year, and possibly the first 15C 850hPa isotherm.

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5028386

[Cambrian]

The plainer direction of travel is more clearly shown around day 8. Now that’s a great winter setup. 

0z EPS for 11th February at day 8 - low heights through the UK and Ireland, 531 dam the highest through the far southwest of Ireland. An elongated low pressure running north-south from Scandinavia to northern Italy, cyclonic northerly flow for the UK and Ireland. Thicknesses would be obligingly low. Hints of scope for the development of features around Iceland to run down in the flow.

 

T850’s of -4 to -7 throughout the UK and Ireland on the ensemble mean, an exceptional mean. Atlantic jet stream fragmented and tracking well to the south, on mean, control and op (the mean shown here). 

 

The setup looks to have around 3 days in it in its purest form before the Atlantic looks like it might want to have a go, which again could get very interesting. 

Cyclonic, unstable northerly flow, and cold. It might have its detractors for this and for that (uppers too marginal, only back-edge in the south etc.) but if we get anything close to what is being represented here in the mean, that’s one of the best setups we’re going to see for general snow chances any time between now and next December, so we should feel entitled to thoroughly enjoy its manifestation (or not!) over the next week. Have a great day. 

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5028580

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters are back after going AWOL last night.  Only 1 cluster out to T168, so no light to be shed on the potential for snow in the next week, and to be honest the op runs will be a better guide to that anyway.  T192-T240:

Cluster 2 looks cold for the UK, with the trough extending way south and a wedge of heights to the NW providing a northerly flow.  Cluster 1 has stronger heights to the NW but more distant, and the trough is less pronounced, but still a cold evolution.

T264+:

There is a lot going on here.  One thing that strikes me is the amount of red borders (Scandi block).  This highlights the possibility of drawing in an easterly or northeasterly.  Cluster 3 shows this well - evolves a very well placed block.  Cluster 2 could be good too with some tweaks.  Cluster 1 heads the block up to Greenland, again slight tweak needed to align with the UK.  Cluster 4 has a much weaker attempt at blocking that largely fails to take hold.

Plenty of cold options in the mix in the extended timeframe.

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5028583

[bluearmy]

If gfs op dropped the fascination with snowfall from attempt one then we’d be a lot less excited in here. We should learn from experience that gfs op is not the model you want in your back pocket when it’s fairly isolated. 
 

we can wait till Mondays 00z runs to draw the curtains on attempt one south of the M62 

the cold flow to follow is uncertain re depth of cold and instability 

then we look to hemispheric pattern changes and if we don’t get a sig cold spell with snowfall by the end of feb then we are truly unlucky 

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5028606

[TEITS]

I don't often say this but my word I have read some rubbish over the last few pages.

Firstly the low at the end of next week still has time to alter its shape and track. However at the moment Scotland looks more favourable to see snowfall. Remember though at the moment it looks as though everyone will turn colder with a N/NE,ly into the weekend.

Moving into the following week and virtually all output suggests a continuation of cold weather whether that's from a N or E,ly. 

A message to those who say this is normal UK winter weather in Feb. Sorry but if you look at this N Hemisphere chart from the 12Z GFS then this is more typical for April, May than Feb.

I even read the dreaded Iberian High being mentioned. My reply to that cannot be posted but instead I shall just say "Are you having a laugh"!

Much to look forward to for the rest of the month with plenty of further opportunities for snowfall. Just stop fretting about late next week. Are you expecting the world to end?

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5028933

[Uncertainty]

There’s been a real sea-change in the output tonight in the 7-10 day range, regardless of what happens with the will it won’t it north / south Thursday low.

The heights to the N of the U.K. seem more to just build spontaneously, rather than be reliant on WAA from a stalling Atlantic low. 
 

It’s apparent across the 3 main models.

GEM 0z

GEM 12z

Notice the Azores low is now squashed. Heights are rising to the W and N of the U.K. - though the shortwave W of Iceland could be an (academic) nuisance.

ECM 0z at day 10

On the 0z ec, we are reliant on the Atlantic low to build the ridge through the U.K. and on to the NE if we’re lucky…

On the latest ec 

Completely different. The Atlantic is spilt  into two jets, the sub tropical jet is sending multiple squashed lows towards Iberia whilst the northern arm builds the Icelandic high. A much rarer scenario than the above and one I’m more familiar with from archive charts than from my own forecasting experience.

What does this mean? Are there models ‘seeing’ the road to northern blocking the ec46 has so consistently promised? I think they are. And there are other factors driving this transition to a colder paradigm:

- modelling is picking up on a much weaker strat than anticipated a few days ago, though an ssw looks 50/50 and the strat has been weird this year and you wouldn’t want to call it yet.

- the mjo is forecast to stick around somewhere in phase7 and(possibly) onto  8. A good sign for cold weather 

- the massive AAM surge and accompanying  +EAMT favours blocking patterns, especially  when the above factors are in play 

 

- The ec has been incredibly consistent. As consistent as I’ve ever seen it, even taking into account the daily runs 

It continues to advertise a marked cold and blocked spell. Indeed, the colder than average temps are back tonight too.

When looking for significant pattern changes in My personal forecasting area - the 10 to 15 day range - I look for a mean high in an unusual place to persuade me that a signal is genuine. The geps has had this for a few days but now the other two have cottoned on:

GEM: mean easterly with a Greenland block and S euro low

GEFS: a highly anomalous North Sea high with a flow from the east in the S

This retrogresses to a NEerly

The eps is still pouring out. But @Mike Poole assures us the clusters are bankworthy and he knows his clusters.

Unsurprisingly, he’s not wrong. They are sensational for cold with a eurolow of some description and varying degrees of blocks to the N.

So is it a done deal? Ha. Of course it isn’t. We’ve been here before and further and still had everything bust. BUT… you can’t deny the incredible synergy between the telecons and the models - and particularly the consistency of the sub seasonal modelling.

In conclusion. It might, just might, be time to…

 

buy more grit! 

 

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5029050

[Cambrian]

What a great Sunday morning to be up early looking at the charts! Especially when there’s such interesting ones on show, even now for the end of the same week.

0z EPS day 6 is a cracker of a surprise with the low pressure tracking to the south of Ireland through Wales and southern England, many of us kept on the cold side, or quickly brought back into it in the wrap. Just a point about how low the heights are - this is a mean, probably the best mean we have, showing 525 dam heights    to the southwest and through southeast England at day 6. There could well be a lot of surprises in store with this one.

 

Thereafter, by day 8, we have the centre of the low heading into Europe but with a meaty bit of troughing hanging back through the southern UK, with some properly cold air entrained in the northeasterly flow of the departing low. 

 

The icing on the breakfast cake for me this morning though is how quickly and solidly the high pressure builds in from the west by day 10, a surface high extending from the UK and Ireland northeast to Scandinavia. 

 

This puts one of the best types of prospect on the table - some snow on the ground, with a high pressure quickly established to trap in the surface cold over the snow. Potential for a good winter spell.

At this stage, we’re still very much defining and re-measuring the envelope. But it’s actually now surprisingly a bigger envelope than yesterday, with many more of our addresses being considered for being written on the front. Mornings like this are what makes this hobby so enjoyable. 

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5029260

[Blessed Weather]

 blizzard81
Here's the latest 5-day 500hPa forecast verification chart from the ECMWF website for the period 5th Jan to 25th Jan. It shows a very respectable and steady performance from GEM (CMC). The worst performing model appears to be the NCEP/GFS with the forecast accuracy graph line lurching from a good performance one day to a poor performance the next. JMA performance similar. Interesting that over the 20 day period even the UKMO comes bottom on occasions. Also interesting that all models had a bad day at the office on the 24th Jan - I wonder what caused that?
But the main take is that ECM is top model.

Source: https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/plwww_w_other_ts_upperair?area=NHem Extratropics&day=5&score=Anomaly correlation

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5029588

[WYorksWeather]

Been fairly busy this weekend, so not been posting as much. Time to make up for it I think this evening.

Anyway, first port of call is snow chances for next week. I see a lot of people talking about whether we're going to get snow or cold rain out of the low on Thursday, and whether if it does snow, it has chances of accumulating. Main focus here is going to be conditions from T+72 to T+120 on UKV.

First, temperatures. Here are the overnight temperatures for 6am on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday mornings. Pretty clear that through Friday, snow chances at low levels will be limited to Midlands and further north, if we can't even get temperatures below 0C by night.

Here are afternoon temperatures for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday (3pm).

Overall, except for Scotland and far north of England, this does look like the m-word, marginal.

Next, 850hPa temperatures. These are not of course an exact correspondence with snow chances, but I think it's fair to say that especially as we go deeper into February, anything above -5C is probably unlikely to deliver to low levels. Anything -8C or lower is probably close to near certain snow accumulations, and -5C to -8C is the grey area.

So, here are the 850hPa temperatures that UKV is predicting from T+60 to T+120, in 12 hour steps.

Through to Friday, it looks like we can summarise it something like this. Conditions are definitely suitable for snow in Scotland and the far north of England on Wednesday and Thursday, with marginal snow possible through Yorkshire and parts of the Midlands. By Friday, the conditions are definitely right through all of NW and NE England, and parts of Yorkshire, with marginal snow chances everywhere except the far south, and possibly west Wales.

Same again, but for dew points. We're looking for values below 0C here.

This looks less good for the south - never really any good chances south of a line from the Wash to the Bristol Channel - persistently positive dew points.

So, with that in mind, here are some of the snow events UKV is showing. On Wednesday morning, we have showers into parts of northern and central Scotland.

Then a band of mostly rain on Thursday morning.

An attempt on Friday just results in more rain for the south, and snow showers into the north.

 

If I were anywhere Midlands northwards with 200-300m of elevation, or down to low levels in Scotland, I'd be feeling quite good about this. But at the moment, with what UKV is showing tonight, it's just the wrong side of marginal for most of us. We need those temperatures forced down at least another couple of degrees.

Here's GFS 12z and the (incomplete) ECM 12z ensembles. We see again that there just isn't quite enough for near my location, going by the mean. 850hPa in the -5C to -6C range at this time of year is always going to have a certain amount of marginality. I have near 100m of elevation at my location and I'm still not that hopeful.

I think the key is timeframe. It's like looking for a heatwave in mid August - you need that bit more oomph in the 850s to get the temperature to 30C at the surface, nearer 15C rather than 10-12C given good surface conditions. Same here, an ordinary winter -5C is probably going to just come out the wrong side, whereas 2-3 weeks ago it might well have delivered.

Just anecdotally, it's becoming quite noticeable now that the seasons are getting ready to change again. I was out on Saturday and for the first time this year there was a very noticeable warmth to the sun. In just the last two weeks, we've also gained about 40 minutes of daylight, and by the period of interest on Thursday, we'll be close to an hour compared to mid-January. Yes, SSTs are still falling, but we need the initial airmass to be cold enough to tolerate a bit of warm air mixing as low pressure comes in.

So, for the moment, I'm expecting a ton of cold rain on Thursday if the low is over my location, possibly with a sleety element at times, but nothing more than that. I'd like to be wrong, of course.

It wouldn't take much, either way. 100 miles south with the cold boundary and we bring many more areas into play. 100 miles north and it would be pretty much a damp squib  - just snow over the Pennines and in parts of Scotland, which is standard fare in even slightly cooler than average conditions at this time of year.

Still time for this picture to change, and I will follow with interest over the coming days.

 

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5029871

[stodge]

11 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

Just anecdotally, it's becoming quite noticeable now that the seasons are getting ready to change again. I was out on Saturday and for the first time this year there was a very noticeable warmth to the sun. In just the last two weeks, we've also gained about 40 minutes of daylight, and by the period of interest on Thursday, we'll be close to an hour compared to mid-January. Yes, SSTs are still falling, but we need the initial airmass to be cold enough to tolerate a bit of warm air mixing as low pressure comes in.

Just thought I'd pick up on this old chestnut. The saying "as the days get longer, the cold gets stronger" isn't entirely false.

As winter goes on, the sources of cold air (north and east) get progressively colder and for the far north and north east, it's still dark most of the time so not much to warm the air. Thus, an early December easterly often has modest 850s while by late February we can still see -20 850s and as you rightly say, the sea can be at its coldest.

MY cold nirvana is a SE'ly from a frigid and snowbound continent with the minimum fetch across the Channel - tonight's 12Z JMA at T+264 is nearly there but note the initial cold is often mixed out before the real cold arrives so it's often a waiting game to get the synoptics right before the real cold arrives.

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5029878

[Daniel*]

Some of you folks confuse me the EPS strengthens the cold signal growing optimism of colder E’ly flows into next week.

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5030193

[Captain Shortwave]

Late next week looks very delicate and very small differences can determine whether the low deepens towards the UK or runs through the channel as a shallow feature. The UKMO keeps the low separated from the main troughing which allows a much more southerly track, the GFS on the 06z not only connects the low but the cold pooling from Scandinavia connects to the PV moving towards Greenland at the time which seems to slow the low even further and deepen in situ as there is a gap to pull WAA ahead of the low over the UK, hence the snow to rain event.

I wouldn’t place my money on either option yet to be honest.

GFS

Hard to spot but you can see the embedded troughing within that low extending out of Greenland.

UKMO

 

Much less pronounced and a more elongated and complex system. You could argue that the GFS is potentially over simplifying the set up into that one low when the reality could be a series of small systems that will gradually break eastwards.

 

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5030205

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters T192-T240:

The GFS solution at T192, in which the low clears away NE, is not really represented.  Cluster 3 seems the most northerly track of the low.  But the theme across all 5 clusters is blocking to our north. 

T264+:

Both clusters end with a block to the NW, cluster 1 it is over Greenland but declines, cluster 2 it is to our N then retrogresses, with an initial easterly in this timeframe.  

Given the UK is very much on a gambler’s losing streak at the moment, one worry I have is that the high latitude block will prove to be a mirage - no evidence for that at the moment, but a concern might be ridge up to that does seem to pass through the UK on some runs, which would keep the cold at bay.  So more detail as this counts down is needed…

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5030267

[Catacol]

Been suffering from Covid the last week and it drove me away from screens and brain activity. Sheesh - talk about brain fog. Nightmare.

Feeling a bit better, and better again for what may lie ahead. No need to go over the crash from 22nd Jan, the disappointment of the final stages of January and the prognosis at one stage that suggested February could flatten out. But but but - we always knew a crescendo of drivers supporting a more blocked/cold pattern for our part of the world were on their way as we left January and that - with a degree of uncertainty on lag - there was a good chance February could deliver. 

A few core pointers.

AAM tendency has been positive for a good while now, and this leads to:

= a good high level of GLAAM, ready once again to support the right kind of blocking.

This leads to a positive picture of the current GWO orbit:

We are in the Nino 5-8 range  which represents wind flows conducive to the North Atlantic blocking snow hunters crave. 

All this is good. What about the issues around the strat, which about a week ago looked like it might spoil the party?

What a change that is in the space of a week. We have a significant slowdown imminent - maybe even a second bite at a significant SSW - and a context from top down that has swung back in dramatic style to provide a blocking opportunity once again. 

Where does the EPS see this heading? We are on track for substantial height rises to the north, and likely north west, as we head into school half term week.

Whether we can get some more late season joy out of this remains to be seen - if the strat continues to be modelled as under ongoing stress then who knows. I hesitate to mention 2018 because I dont think we got the precursors to cause that kind of SSW this time around, but I certainly wouldnt be surprised to see a cold and blocked March given how things sit right now. Given the declining nature of the vortex by then, a GH embedded in late February in a high GWO orbit background looks likely to me to stick around.

 

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5030427

[carinthian]

Good morning from a fast snow melting Alps. Yes, freezing level 2500m ! Oh , this mornings models , any the wiser ? Definitely a change taking place this week  but exact details not yet fully determined. GFS/and the French model blow up the low over Ireland Thurs/ Fri , so this would delay any cold. UKMO/ ICON sinking the low to form a European trough which would allow cold to dominate much quicker. ECM sort of in between but looks more in line with the German/ UK model at this instant. Looking at the fax input for Thursday, I would think at this stage, rain for the south with snow in the mix further north. If the low deepens further , possibly the  precipitation could advance further north. However, if the UKMO model proves to be correct , there will be a big up tick for snow potential be be further south.

Could be a big week coming up to see if the winter can get a proper grip across The British Isles. Meanwhile, Central European stays on the warm side for a bit longer.

C

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5030043

[Mike Poole]

I wish people would stop declaring victory for the GFS (or the like) when neither its solution or that promoted (until this afternoon) by the ECM and UKMO has yet verified.

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5030981

[Cheshire Freeze]

 WeatherArc looking ominous for summer when we’re seeing plumes of that strength modelled in February.

The acceleration in the warming trend over the past few years is alarming…just in my opinion of course.

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5031161

[Eagle Eye]

Secondary AAM rebound appears to be well underway, momentum being added to the atmosphere, significant jet shift surely likely for the NPJ, perhaps displacing the Pacific trough as has been expected for a while. This appears to be helpful in Greenland high forcing still. Interested to see how accurate the response forecasts tend to be in this scenario. 

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5031468

[bluearmy]

 BarnetBlizzard it’s ok - the further south the better. Scandi even better because it should help keep the Atlantic ridge further west and further south means the phasing from the Atlantic jet is far enough south to keep us fully cold 

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5031491