The Heat Haters Club 2023

[Don]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The good run we've had this July is showing signs of ending now

This is the first mean ridge I've seen on an anomaly chart for yonks

It would be good if this current run of weather returns for September, if you know what I mean!

That's still a predominant flow off the Atlantic, so not particularly hot.

Edited July 22, 2023 by Don

[Cheshire Freeze]

6 minutes ago, Don said:

It would be good if this current run of weather returns for September, if you know what I mean!

That's still a predominant flow off the Atlantic, so not particularly hot.

No it's not hot but the point is that it doesn't take much these days for it to turn that way should the HP anomaly slip E and a weak low get trapped to our SW

I have zero appetite to experience even mid-high 30s this year.

Edited July 22, 2023 by CreweCold

[legion_quest]

Yeah, think we're going to have to brace ourselves for at least one hot week incoming, at least in the South. The change is afoot in the long range charts

[stodge]

Well, GFS 12Z OP doesn't suggest a hot week as much as a hot 36 hours - it's a T+360 so for now, nothing too much to worry about.

Should add no support from Control at this time.

[SollyOlly]

Looks encouraging, then. Psychologically, at least, I am trying to prepare myself for one more really hot blast, and then uncomfortable warmth can even linger on into September...but having a normal, temperate July this year has been a real boost, especially after the hell of July 2022. Let's hope that we can keep seeing 'sensible' weather for a while yet...until winter, anyway, when I would welcome extremes (of cold!) - !

[The PIT]

Worrying hints of extremely unpleasant heatwave in the FS. Lala land but after last year I don't laugh at those charts any more. So could see 38C quite widely helped by the warm seas.

[SollyOlly]

1 hour ago, The PIT said:

Worrying hints of extremely unpleasant heatwave in the FS. Lala land but after last year I don't laugh at those charts any more. So could see 38C quite widely helped by the warm seas.

Hmm, yes, I saw that...like you, I don't any longer dismiss these, they end up happening all too often. Let's hope that this one stays well out in FI...!!

[Guest]

Aye, cannot completely ignore but still feeling pretty relaxed about things as we head into August and following the 12z ECMWF op.

[SollyOlly]

Nice run. Let's hope it stays like that! tbh, it's been pretty good for July...if we can get through another 20-25 days or so, then we should be through the worst risk of bonkers heat. Sure, it can still get hot, but hopefully the movement of the globe starts to shift in our favour again...

[Pewkzii]

I haven’t been around for a while hopefully there isn’t any chance of a heatwave in August! 
 

I personally have been enjoying the lack of extreme heat, it was quite warm and sunny here the other day, I don’t mind to much if there’s warm days but cooler as well it’s the constant prolonged excessive heat that wears me down after a while! 
 

but I’m currently excited for Autumn and Winter! My fav seasons of the year

[The PIT]

Disappeared on tonight's run but need to keep an eye on it it case it re-appears again but closer in.

[stodge]

Evening all

Have to say the GFS 12Z OP in FI is dominated by a hurricane which moves up the east coast and then towards the southern tip of Greenland which encourages the pressure rise to the north and west of the British Isles and we end up not with hot s'lies but unstable e'lies which could mean plenty of storms.

It's a hurricane and anyone who thinks these are accurately forecasted this far out needs to have a sit down - it may not even form.  Control doesn't even show it and keeps LP pretty much in charge up to mid August.

To be fair, ex-tropical features can and do disrupt the pattern often by bringing energy further north but the effects aren't uniform.

At this stage, nothing to be worried about and some of the signals for heat shown a few days back have eased off - we may well get more settled and warmer spells but warmer is relative - mid 20s not late 30s.

[SollyOlly]

Thanks Stodge. Yes, mid-20s I can live with...and as you say, instability and unpredictability rule the roost. We've already 'dodged a bullet' this July, so hopefully we'll get through to autumn without any major heat.  My health was beginning to deteriorate towards the end of that June heat-blitz, so the relief came just in time. Probably get a 'very warm' autumn, but there we go...I seem to remember October 2011, maybe? I was working in London during the weekdays, and it was so warm...!! (apologies if I've got the year or month wrong!)

[lassie23]

When is it going to snow for flop sake

[S Bragg]

4 hours ago, lassie23 said:

When is it going to snow for flop sake

April probably.  

[Guest]

More stunning ensemble output this morning and this taking us towards mid-August now. Absolutely fantastic!

 

[markyo]

7 minutes ago, Tidal Wave said:

More stunning ensemble output this morning and this taking us towards mid-August now. Absolutely fantastic!

 

Certainly no complaints with that!

[Frigid]

4 hours ago, Tidal Wave said:

More stunning ensemble output this morning and this taking us towards mid-August now. Absolutely fantastic!

 

If only that was the chart for mid January, remarkable to see that in the height of summer.

June really was a mean prank to those who love warmth, couldn't be any different this month. 

[Pewkzii]

Well that’s me happy! I literally get filled with fear when I think about summer coming round i certainly was dreading this one after last year! 
 

but it’s been perfect! I just read Markyo’s post in the summer thread about the light! I’m exactly the same - it’s to bright to early and lasts for seemingly forever! 
 

I can not wait for the dark mornings and dark evenings proper!

[Tom Montalbano]

17 hours ago, lassie23 said:

When is it going to snow for flop sake

51 minutes ago, Pewkzii said:

Well that’s me happy! I literally get filled with fear when I think about summer coming round i certainly was dreading this one after last year! 
 

but it’s been perfect! I just read Markyo’s post in the summer thread about the light! I’m exactly the same - it’s to bright to early and lasts for seemingly forever! 
 

I can not wait for the dark mornings and dark evenings proper!

Afternoon all,

Hope I find yourselves and your Families, ell.

As a fully paid up member of President Dami's Heat Hater's Club, absolutely loving this July, .

But there is still August to get through, so not counting my chickens just yet!!

Feel sorry for my relatives in my Mum's Country of Italy but as far as I'm concerned the heat can stay over the South of Europe, for the rest of the Summer.

But myself and other close  Family members are worried about our extended Family.

The Sister-in-Law of my Sister lives in Corfu and has a Tourist business there with her Husband, who is a Native of Corfu.

Meanwhile, my Italian Cousin and her Family live in Catania in Sicily, close to Mount Etna.

After a few Days of mid 40's Centigrade, it's don to a more comfortable 30C, Today.

Meanwhile back in S.E. London, it still feels very "gloopy", this Afternoon.

Below, are the recent readings from nearby London City Airport, about 6 miles North of my location, as the Crow flies.

Even though the relative humidity is dropping, I'm still sitting in our Lounge with a fan on quite a high setting. 

 /  / 

 Plus myself and my Wife have still needed to have our Bedroom fan on every Night so far, this Summer.

Our Housing Association property is very poorly designed in terms of comfort, during Summer.

Our Rooms are small with low ceilings and our Bedroom sits directly above our Kitchen.

We try and use our Cooker as little as possible during the Summer months. If we use it for any length of time, the heat soon rises up to the top floor of the House, making for a very uncomfortable Night's sleep.

My Wife and myself are totally with you PEWKZIL. We hate it when Summer comes around and can't wait for Autumn to get here!!

And our N.W. London diagonally opposite neighbour LASSIE23, never mind about Snow Lass, can't wait for the reappearance of the O.F.I. [October Fog Index].

Regards,

Tom Q. 

[Pewkzii]

20 minutes ago, Tom Quintavalle said:

Afternoon all,

Hope I find yourselves and your Families, ell.

As a fully paid up member of President Dami's Heat Hater's Club, absolutely loving this July, .

But there is still August to get through, so not counting my chickens just yet!!

Feel sorry for my relatives in my Mum's Country of Italy but as far as I'm concerned the heat can stay over the South of Europe, for the rest of the Summer.

But myself and other close  Family members are worried about our extended Family.

The Sister-in-Law of my Sister lives in Corfu and has a Tourist business there with her Husband, who is a Native of Corfu.

Meanwhile, my Italian Cousin and her Family live in Catania in Sicily, close to Mount Etna.

After a few Days of mid 40's Centigrade, it's don to a more comfortable 30C, Today.

Meanwhile back in S.E. London, it still feels very "gloopy", this Afternoon.

Below, are the recent readings from nearby London City Airport, about 6 miles North of my location, as the Crow flies.

Even though the relative humidity is dropping, I'm still sitting in our Lounge with a fan on quite a high setting. 

 /  / 

 Plus myself and my Wife have still needed to have our Bedroom fan on every Night so far, this Summer.

Our Housing Association property is very poorly designed in terms of comfort, during Summer.

Our Rooms are small with low ceilings and our Bedroom sits directly above our Kitchen.

We try and use our Cooker as little as possible during the Summer months. If we use it for any length of time, the heat soon rises up to the top floor of the House, making for a very uncomfortable Night's sleep.

My Wife and myself are totally with you PEWKZIL. We hate it when Summer comes around and can't wait for Autumn to get here!!

And our N.W. London diagonally opposite neighbour LASSIE23, never mind about Snow Lass, can't wait for the reappearance of the O.F.I. [October Fog Index].

Regards,

Tom Q. 

Hey there Tom! Hope you and your family are well

So far with August it seems that if we were to get some heat it would be a little easier to tolerate with the shortening days! 
 

myself and my Partner sleep with our fan on constantly lol have done since 2018 we can’t sleep if it’s not cool plus we love the background noise, if it’s off now it’s eerily quiet and feels just wrong!

 

I hope your families abroad are safe and coping ok with the heat they are having!

 

The stickiness in the air is still present even if it’s cooler the house is very humid at the moment - I’m just waiting for the darker nights and the chill in the air that you need to be wrapped up in a duvet to sleep  

 

and as you said the fog!! We had amazing fog in 2020 it lasted for about 6 days i think very spooky  

[Dami]

I have to admit i am been loving this cooler weather.

The only thing i am missing is the chance of storms, the only thing i can tolerate a bit of heat from. 

Although like @Tom Quintavallesaid above, we still have August to go and even September these days can throw in a few surprises. 

Still time for that heatwave. 

[S Bragg]

I don't mind warm weather in September, the days aren't as long and the sun isn't as strong.  As long as temps don't get to the 80s fahrenheit it can be pleasant in the autumn.

[Tom Montalbano]

1 hour ago, Pewkzii said:

Hey there Tom! Hope you and your family are well

So far with August it seems that if we were to get some heat it would be a little easier to tolerate with the shortening days! 
 

myself and my Partner sleep with our fan on constantly lol have done since 2018 we can’t sleep if it’s not cool plus we love the background noise, if it’s off now it’s eerily quiet and feels just wrong!

 

I hope your families abroad are safe and coping ok with the heat they are having!

 

The stickiness in the air is still present even if it’s cooler the house is very humid at the moment - I’m just waiting for the darker nights and the chill in the air that you need to be wrapped up in a duvet to sleep  

 

and as you said the fog!! We had amazing fog in 2020 it lasted for about 6 days i think very spooky  

Thanks Pewkzii, you sound very much like my wife Colette and myself, although we've only used one of our three Bedroom fans this Summer, we have another two on standby, should the heat get intolerable.

We've had to use all three in our tiny Bedroom at times, during the last 5 Summers!!

Very ironically, it was Colette's former Sister-in-Law that was responsible for the design of these  very poorly designed properties of the Housing Association, we rent from!!  

1 hour ago, Dami said:

I have to admit i am been loving this cooler weather.

The only thing i am missing is the chance of storms, the only thing i can tolerate a bit of heat from. 

Although like @Tom Quintavallesaid above, we still have August to go and even September these days can throw in a few surprises. 

Still time for that heatwave. 

Yes President Dami, it's been a very strange Summer down in our Region, hasn't it President?

June this Year had those record breaking temps, whereas last June was pretty cool to begin with and only started getting warm towards the end, and then those  horrendous heatwaves struck in July and August.

I've been pleasantly surprised by this July but as you state,  we've still got August and even September to get through, yet. 

Still being Brontophobic by nature I've also been pleased with yet another Summer lacking in Thunder Days so far.

That's where you and I differ Dami but I must admit it must be very frustrating to be a Lightning/Thunder lover, certainly for about the last 5 Summers but from my perspective, I still have August and September to get through.

I commented a while ago, I think on our S.,E. Thread, we seem to be developing a Mediterranean style climate, here the majority of Thunder Days come, from the transition from Spring to Summer and at the other end, from Summer to Autumn.

That certainly was the case with those hot and dry mid Summer Months during the last 5 Years or so, until this July has bucked the trend.

Anyway, roll on Autumn and Lassie's October Fog Index!!

Regards,

Tom Q.  

Edited July 27, 2023 by Tom Quintavalle

[stodge]

Evening all

Once again, the evening's models offer little change in the current pattern up to T+240. Slack troughs roll in - we might see a quite vigorous feature at the end of next weekend but that's a long way off.

I note heights building to the east - now, that can cause problems but on this occasion it works to our advantage as the LP moves through, tries to move east, is held around Denmark by the Russian bloc and then heads back WNW for a second run ove rus and keeps us in a WNW flow which keeps things pleasant.

For almost all the GFS 12Z OP, the jet stream remains over or just to the south of the British Isles so nothing to worry about in terms of heat.

Yes, GFS does indicate an incoming ridge but at T+372 I won't worry too much just now.