Record Breaking / Abnormal Weather Events Globally

[Blessed Weather]

As requested by the thread author, can we stick to discussing record breaking and abnormal weather events in this thread please. If you wish to discuss climate change then head over to the Climate Change area. Thank you.

I have moved last night's climate discussions here:

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 06/10/2023 at 22:21, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Another area I continue to watch very eagerly the large anomalous increase for hail and large hail

 

On 06/10/2023 at 22:21, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Overall severe weather reports are well above avg too.

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Really losing count of how many cyclones have developed highest end RI - RAPID INTENSIFICATION within close approach to landfall during this season

 

 

[lottiekent]

Tropical Cyclone Tej has caused flooding in parts of Oman and Yemen, with up to a years worth of rain falling in several days:

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

THIS IS CRAZY CMON NOW 

 

 

 

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[The Tall Weatherman]

1 hour ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

Surprises happen in the world of weather but a surprise like this is simply insane. It’s amazing to thing some Americans near Mexico went to sleep without this being a hurricane to waking up to a Category 5 monster. Most people have not evacuated and sadly many sources suggest mass loss of life.

 

[matty40s]

https://x.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1716997443118674336?s=20

At last, someone is taking it seriously!

 

[matty40s]

 

[Kiwi]

Unexpected and everyone went to bed prepared for a bit of wind and rain.

Unprepared - It's now 1.20am and they're about to be hit by a cat 5 hurricane. 

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

I did mention I was expecting minimum temperature records to be going with this setup however it really has already over delivered and a huge historical event in many regions IMO

 

 

I discussed over on the snow thread but I believe first time I've ever known a deviation of 40 DEGREES from avg 

 

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Austin weather: Coldest October 30th ever

WWW.FOX7AUSTIN.COM

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You're going to need a jacket and an umbrella Monday. Zack Shields has a look at how long the rain and chilly temperatures will last.

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

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[matty40s]

...another from Acapulco..

 

 

Edited October 31, 2023 by matty40s

[Shaunado]

I think I heard on Deep Dive that a new rainfall record was set in NI, but can't remember the details or find a tweet about it...

Edited October 31, 2023 by Shaunado

[matty40s]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 26/10/2023 at 21:18, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

I posted the following September 19th 

What could unfold as we go into October?

These are the biggest development dynamical situations I'd be expectant to be occuring. Hazarding a date keep eyes around later of October Week 2 sometime around 10th - 13th

Elongation of European Heights start a gradual movement evolving to Scandinavia---Greenland 

New trough emerging close by most probably a smidge to the East then drifting to the UK 

I'm noticing that trend of low pressures through the United States trends show that eastern coastal Noreaster style as a possible setup

And the following 500hpa animation on 8th of October 

 

New 500hpa sequences following that period which go excellent to my thoughts back in September 

 

'Active West Pacific signals [super typhoon Bolaven]

Californian >> Mexican cyclonic pattern. Major Hurricane Lidia plus Tropical Storm Max. Also the potential next Rossby Wave via Bolaven into new California Cyclonic conditions 

Build of pressure through the UK and Scandinavia which transpires as the Rossby Wave within Atlantic continues its progression further East'

Nothing short of spectacular the manner in which this has really energized the setup pretty much globally 

Using the above JMA phase 7 expectant setups it even gave good indication on the -PNA east American high plus the dual zones over on the western end more on this in a minute 

Really stunning showcase of how a positive PNA swaps to that of a negative phase

"an upper trough trying to align on a negative tilt which might see a severe weather event into the Midwest and west central America as that has the energy from Norma which did indeed move into Baja'

Focusing more at the California Baja >> Mexican troughing this really kicked into life from phase 6 but in particular 7 and 8 we've seen Lidia Max Norma and Otis within like 2 weeks.

Crazy.

Next focus is with the separate trough swinging through the Northwest and Canada the recorded temp differences from AVG are truly incredible already with upto and over 30 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE

 

 

As the PNA rises this will coincide with these values moving east southeastwards with nearly all of America below average and decently at that, I expect a good number of further minimum temperatures will be at and setting new records particularly in traditional warmer states such as Texas and along the Gulf. Might be some high temp records doing the same within that -PNA high initially however the minimum values really are the main news.

A rare pattern by the very beginning of November in regards to a legit cut off Greenland High, a VERY rare beast bringing back the 09/10 vibes. Note the separation of energy has occurred as our block from Scandi has split with the formation further east connecting through Alaska and the Pacific Northwest with the rest over Greenland as discussed and something I mentioned on October 8th

'I'm eagerly awaiting the approach into Halloween  be looking particularly toward the patterns getting retrogressive in nature with scope for further blocking which looks to have the opportunities of origin towards Scandinavia'

Nice viewing as the composites are starting to show in alignment to the continuing phase 8-1 snailpace MJO movement 

We'll have to keep very alert for week 1 November of the forming CAG with very early signals this has possible connections for the PNA moving once again to positive territory, Florida maybe Gulf states need to be mindful with formation currently signalled by November 4th

This lead up to Guy Fawkes gives another date for cyclone development for us also around 2nd - 6th 

 

On 29/10/2023 at 16:22, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

'We'll have to keep very alert for week 1 November of the forming CAG with very early signals this has possible connections for the PNA moving once again to positive territory, Florida maybe Gulf states need to be mindful with formation currently signalled by November 4th

This lead up to Guy Fawkes gives another date for cyclone development for us also around 2nd - 6th'

'We have two dates to really focus in on which are 27th October and 29th October I expect Sunday 29th will have greater impacts for multiple reasons however Friday shouldn't be completely dismissed.'

Very pleased with development fitting really good with the above

I can say with a high degree of certainty there are 2 dates with deep cyclones which will have significant impact for the UK and France particularly Northern France 

1. November 2nd
2. November 4th

Looking in detail how each day develops downstream

The deep cyclonic conditions moving across on the 2nd lies with the snowstorm currently impacting Colorado

 

Even as it exits toward Long Island it already contains an energising Jet streak along its southern flank, same timing sees the wave break I discussed previously in regards to Tammy which splits some energy and generates a new low a few miles to its east, importance within a new low which sets up close to Florida plus the next surge of tropical energy into the far East Pacific 

Ive posted the patterns during phases 8 and 1 during November however this is superb as the trough location ties really great

Halloween ^^^

Note there is an active cyclonic activity through the Labrador Sea which inputs towards our cyclone on November 2nd however less of a contributor than the snowstorm.

More incredible stuff happens on Late Halloween eve and especially November 1st which will see the RARE cut off Greenland High as mentioned above, 

So come Halloween we've the Snowstorm moving into the Atlantic, a high energy upper trough swinging from Canada into the Great Lakes creating the first big Lake Effect event (Tug Hill doing nice from this one i expect) there plus the Labrador Sea cyclone feeds enough energy and forms a cyclone west of Ireland

We begin seeing the Florida low better by then also and these two events will be the key for the cyclogenisis for us into November 4th

November 2nd

Snowstorm undergoing rapid deep cyclogenisis and becomes the main cyclone as the energy merge occurs to the smaller cyclonic centre west of Ireland. Pretty rapid deepening involved with our far East Pacific system also. Floridian trough pairing to the Great Lake upper trough. Beginning development showing into our CAG zone

November 4th

• CAG action kicks into life
• New cyclone crossing a similar path and strong cyclogenisis once more

Entire sequence of activities