Storms and Convective discussion - July 2023

[Supacell]

I find the distribution of storms a strange thing. It seems like different places are favoured year by year. Last year i recall the south was favoured with places such as the Sussex coastlines getting numerous storms, and yet there was nothing around here until September. Infact the Midlands had very little. I know storm chasing was expensive last year as I had to travel a long way to get anything.

Here in Belper, storms have been slim pickings since i moved here in February 2017 with nothing at all until the 24th July 2019 and then just 17th June 2020, 28th July 2021 and 9th September 2022.

This year it's been the opposite way. The south has had very little but the Midlands and NW England has had lots. Here there's been more storms this year over Belper than the years 2017 to 2022 put together, although even now the stronger storms have stayed away. 

I dont recall a year with such a disparity in distribution though. Thankfully still plenty of time for more of the country to get storms as we are only half way through the storm season.

[LIGHTNING ACTION]

Enjoy!

[shar36]

11 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

Im going to say 3.45/4pm give or take.

Yes, I looked on my various radar apps etc.. it definitely looks a bit spicy around that time. I'm glad everyone is ok.  

[Rufus Butterfield]

I’m chilling at my mates house and a lightning strike literally hits a couple houses away. Thunder was deafening

[Snowshine]

Seems that my location has dodged every storm over the last three weeks... today being no exception.

Southern areas have also been missing out in general.

Edited July 15, 2023 by Snowshine

[Zak M]

Late again

[Aiden2012]

And it’s thundering again

[shar36]

4 minutes ago, Snowshine said:

Seems that my location has dodged every storm over the last three weeks... today being no exception.

Southern areas have also been missing out in general.

Is that just storm data for today?

What APP is it please? 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

46 minutes ago, northriding said:

Glad to see the cobwebs have finally been blown off and the tumbleweed kicked into touch. Been a very uneventful few years for the N.E. region as a whole.

I've had no measurable rain today, which is really surprising given the ample convection.

Not sure on this take - the NE has always been a storm alley from what I’ve seen.

Maybe from a direct-hit POV it’s been patchy, but from a chaser’s perspective lincs looks like it’s always been a bit of a dream. As Supercell very aptly put it chasing can be very expensive if you’re always travelling a long way to meet a storm, but this is particularly true of chasing from the south, as you are regularly heading toward a storm from the back and trying to somehow get ahead of it. This is even worse if you’re chasing from the south west, as the track of the majority of storms is NEward… so it’s double pootown if you’re a chaser in that situation  

I’ve given up on any chase further than the M4 (and even that’s a push) as it’s just too much effort there and back, even if you get a decent result it does sometimes seem like the juice has barely been worth the squeeze.

Really putting my hopes into a shift to sourthern areas getting their fill as we move into August and beyond. We are deserved several big events now by rights - but just one proper storm that doesn’t bust would be enough.

Edited July 15, 2023 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[northriding]

22 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Not sure on this take - the NE has always been a storm alley from what I’ve seen.

Maybe from a direct-hit POV it’s been patchy, but from a chaser’s perspective lincs looks like it’s always been a bit of a dream. As Supercell very aptly put it chasing can be very expensive if you’re always travelling a long way to meet a storm, but this is particularly true of chasing from the south, as you are regularly heading toward a storm from the back and trying to somehow get ahead of it. This is even worse if you’re chasing from the south west, as the track of the majority of storms is NEward… so it’s double pootown if you’re a chaser in that situation  

I’ve given up on any chase further than the M4 (and even that’s a push) as it’s just too much effort there and back, even if you get a decent result it does sometimes seem like the juice has barely been worth the squeeze.

Really putting my hopes into a shift to sourthern areas getting their fill as we move into August and beyond. We are deserved several big events now by rights - but just one proper storm that doesn’t bust would be enough.

I would class Lincolnshire as eastern England, between the SE and NE, but I take your point on the general track of storms.

I haven't had a direct hit from a convective downpour this year, nevermind an actual storm, though I appreciate that's an unfortunate exception for my region rather than the norm.

Being much further south, you will only have to bide your time for the next humdinger

[BenFreeman_91]

1 hour ago, sparky1972 said:

Im going to say 3.45/4pm give or take.

I had the same storm pass through here!! Very intense! I heard what sounded like a tree coming down very close by but I couldn't locate it!!

[BenFreeman_91]

This is what I assume was a tree or large branch coming down even before the storm passed through (noise at roughly 6 seconds). 

[Paul]

1 hour ago, shar36 said:

Is that just storm data for today?

What APP is it please? 

This is today, so far

[shar36]

6 minutes ago, Paul said:

This is today, so far

Thank you.  Wow ! That's a lot of strikes. I need to look for some better storm apps. 

[minus10]

2 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Edit : just to add could have done with a storm after what’s been a rollercoaster week.

Bought car, then three days later car failed at 40 mph causing huge accident - fortunately O/H was completely unharmed (other than bruising) but basically we’ve now lost the car. We’ve also potentially lost all the money we spent on the car. Plus recovery costs. Not good at all. But so lucky it wasn’t worse. But I dunno how to make sense of it. Shouldn’t have happened. But there you go…

So I’m in a total weird place: very thankful she’s okay, but also we absolutely loved the car and we were planning to use it for camping and it was just all coming together so nicely but the finger of fate pokes itself at you when you least expect it. Now we have to take a guy to court potentially - but have to wait 12 weeks for a police report into the accident as evidence… not great.

Oh yeah, and before all this happened she got a promotion at work! So in summary:

GREAT

HORRIBLE

AMAZINGLY LUCKY

SHOCKING

FRUSTRATING

THANKFUL

APPAULED

FRUSTRANKFUL

ATHPRUATHNKFAUPSKHXB (new word)

 

like I said - storm would have been nice.

back to square one… we’ll work through it and hopefully get back there again.

storm would be nice though.

Sorry to hear that mate...life is like that...has a habit of kicking you down when things are looking better..at least you both wernt hurt too much ...i often find these sort of things hard to deal with mentally after and the weather, particularly storms can help..so i understand your frustration re storms missing the south...here in Hertfordshire we are just north enough often to catch the edge of action. ..particularly if it is moving/developing ne or nw...saw a brief but pretty intense downpour plus few cracks in Stevenage today...hope things improve for you and that we can all get in on the storm action that some of us clearly experienced today...

[viking_smb]

3 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Edit : just to add could have done with a storm after what’s been a rollercoaster week.

Bought car, then three days later car failed at 40 mph causing huge accident - fortunately O/H was completely unharmed (other than bruising) but basically we’ve now lost the car. We’ve also potentially lost all the money we spent on the car. Plus recovery costs. Not good at all. But so lucky it wasn’t worse. But I dunno how to make sense of it. Shouldn’t have happened. But there you go…

So I’m in a total weird place: very thankful she’s okay, but also we absolutely loved the car and we were planning to use it for camping and it was just all coming together so nicely but the finger of fate pokes itself at you when you least expect it. Now we have to take a guy to court potentially - but have to wait 12 weeks for a police report into the accident as evidence… not great.

Oh yeah, and before all this happened she got a promotion at work! So in summary:

GREAT

HORRIBLE

AMAZINGLY LUCKY

SHOCKING

FRUSTRATING

THANKFUL

APPAULED

FRUSTRANKFUL

ATHPRUATHNKFAUPSKHXB (new word)

 

like I said - storm would have been nice.

back to square one… we’ll work through it and hopefully get back there again.

storm would be nice though.

sorry to hear that mate, what was wrong with car? 

[Iceman2606]

Thundery Showers - 12 July 2023 Time-Lapse

 

[offerman]

1 hour ago, Paul said:

This is today, so far

Unbelievable Paul, in that it’s not just today concentration over in north and north-east. It does seem to have been like that most of the summer this year. Quite strange really. 

[Andy Bown]

13 minutes ago, offerman said:

Unbelievable Paul, in that it’s not just today concentration over in north and north-east. It does seem to have been like that most of the summer this year. Quite strange really. 

 

3 hours ago, Supacell said:

I find the distribution of storms a strange thing. It seems like different places are favoured year by year. Last year i recall the south was favoured with places such as the Sussex coastlines getting numerous storms, and yet there was nothing around here until September. Infact the Midlands had very little. I know storm chasing was expensive last year as I had to travel a long way to get anything.

Here in Belper, storms have been slim pickings since i moved here in February 2017 with nothing at all until the 24th July 2019 and then just 17th June 2020, 28th July 2021 and 9th September 2022.

This year it's been the opposite way. The south has had very little but the Midlands and NW England has had lots. Here there's been more storms this year over Belper than the years 2017 to 2022 put together, although even now the stronger storms have stayed away. 

I dont recall a year with such a disparity in distribution though. Thankfully still plenty of time for more of the country to get storms as we are only half way through the storm season.

I think it must be purely down to Synoptics.

Plume type set ups will favour Southern regions, it’s then a lottery of where from East-West the plume arrives.

This year we are having a lot of LOW pressure set ups, eg. like today and last week, where the SW’ly flow generates showers and storms inland and running towards the NE which are benefitting from the strong summer sun/low pressure combination.

[Frosty hollows]

1 hour ago, Paul said:

This is today, so far

Glad to see it all missed me completely seeing as I'm not at home

[Turquoise]

Just got back from a very wet Alsager Music Festival...on and off heavy showers most of the day, no thunder heard (at least over the loud music). Could of been a lot worse, but we did get a soaking.

[Eagle Eye]

Convective Outlook  

Locally, 3CAPE in excess of 100 J/KG could allow for a few moderately active storms to form, especially in areas of strong forcing. This is combined with fairly weak buoyancy in most areas but locally enough ascent for some locally strong storms to form.

The pre-event moisture transportation is still mostly there in a way and so over saturation shouldn't be an issue in most areas (quick note just for Netweather, this is given that the moisture at different levels is pretty well distributed). Some areas in the south west could be over saturated but mostly, it doesn't seem to be much of an issue for risk areas.

Not a major event by any means but could be some small hail in places. This is given very strong LLLR's (low-level lapse-rates) really. Which suggests a fairly low 0°C line mainly but not much CAPE to use it up.

A mid-level warm nose may also disrupt the storm progression. Hence its quite a low end event in general.

[Supacell]

Video of the very fast moving hailstorm from early afternoon just outside Ashbourne/Hulland Ward. Overhead for not much more than 5 minutes.

 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

4 hours ago, viking_smb said:

sorry to hear that mate, what was wrong with car? 

Looks like it was the wishbone, snapping or failing and causing the driveshaft (or some part of the wishbone) down into the road, then she only had control over one wheel, somehow managing to steer the car out the path of another vehicle (with a father and son in it - no less!) and ending up hitting a tree at about 35/40mph…

Incredibly fortunate that it happened like that, but obviously traumatic for her as the driver.

like I say would have been ultimately better if the situation hadn’t happened at all, so now we have to get the report from the police and use that to try and stop other dangerous cars making it onto the road from the place we bought it

Whats surprised me is how much money you have to pay to the police after an accident, regardless of how the accident happened. The report alone is £106!!  

(sorry to go off topic… not like there’s any weather here to talk about at the moment )

Edited July 15, 2023 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[Metwatch]

Morning all, a different perspective to some of the convection across central / southern England yesterday afternoon.