Storms and Convective discussion - July 2023

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Very intense and monsoonal for around 5 minutes. Some of the quietest thunder I think I’ve ever heard though. Sounded like a roll of carpet or something being dragged along a path. This may be it for the day as the showers are losing their depth as we go through the afternoon. 

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

25 minutes ago, Rufus Butterfield said:

I’m doing it by my iphone, when I press ‘add files’, it gives me the option to add from my photo library or choose files. From photo library it just attaches it directly, from ‘choose files’ it uploads it as a file to download.

Not sure if your device isn’t allowing from a photo library, or you’re using desktop in which case it’s a bit different 

Android

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Torrential shower with gin blue skies in the backdrop! Made for what looked like falling marbles. 

[alexisj9]

Apparently Dover had lots of torrential rain but no thunder, glad I was in Canterbury then, didn't see much as was having my infusion, and they had the curtains closed, I did however here a few rumbles. Was dry when I left Dover, dry when a got to Canterbury, dry when I left Canterbury and dry now in Dover, so I missed all showers during my outdoor travels, not bad at all 

[Jamie M]

1.7 mm from my home weather station whilst the official EA rain gauge 2 1/2 miles away in Broomfield recorded 15.6 mm, about a 0.3 mm difference per 100 m.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

1 hour ago, matt111 said:

Usual story here. No showers at all with blue skies overhead but an almost constant train of showers passing to the north. 

What's blue skies? ... I'm moving your way after all

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

Managed to do a work around screenshotting my pictures , here is my scenic photos and rare clouds :))

 

 

[Tobsterstorm 7469]

What a great day it has been, had a very short storm but had some nice lightning and loud cracks!! I also heard constant loud rumbling from a cell to the north of me which was pretty awesome  

 

I also had some loud thunder from an approaching cell to the west. 

 

Managed to catch (screen capture) a fork and some cloudscapes as well!

 

Edited July 17, 2023 by Tobsterstorm 7469

[Jon Somerset]

So far this summer mid-Somerset has had about one thunderclap that I’m aware of. Really disappointed considering all the forecasts we’ve had.

[Andy Bown]

1 hour ago, Jon Somerset said:

So far this summer mid-Somerset has had about one thunderclap that I’m aware of. Really disappointed considering all the forecasts we’ve had.

Somebody posted the lightning strikes from June. There was one strike separate from any others very close to my location. It will have been the one lone flash at 05.30 on the extremely wet morning of 20th June!

[nicknacknoo]

2 hours ago, Jon Somerset said:

So far this summer mid-Somerset has had about one thunderclap that I’m aware of. Really disappointed considering all the forecasts we’ve had.

You're doing better than Drayton nr Portsmouth then!!

[Eagle Eye]

Convective Outlook

600+ J/KG of SBCAPE will allow for some post-frontal storms to form. In an area of moderate DLS, the back edge of an occluded front and behind it, a few storms could form.

 

Rather weak lift should limit storm strength and hail strength as well. So generally storms and hail shod be rather weak. However, some hefty showers given the strong Theta-E tongue, appears possible.

 

Most likely, this will occur along a PV lobe and so clustering up appears likely. This given the PV and SBCAPE maxima.

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, Eagle Eye said:

Convective Outlook

600+ J/KG of SBCAPE will allow for some post-frontal storms to form. In an area of moderate DLS, the back edge of an occluded front and behind it, a few storms could form.

 

Rather weak lift should limit storm strength and hail strength as well. So generally storms and hail shod be rather weak. However, some hefty showers given the strong Theta-E tongue, appears possible.

 

Most likely, this will occur along a PV lobe and so clustering up appears likely. This given the PV and SBCAPE maxima.

I'm looking forward to your Wednesday forcast, if you do one, showers on a NW wind usually produce down here, normally due the convergence at the coast. Not always though.

[Weather-history]

 

 

11 hours ago, The Tall Weatherman said:

Thanks @Coops241180 for pointing it out. A seemingly active thunderstorm has exploded to the East of Manchester moving E/SE into a seemingly zero-cape environment. Very surprising

 

That was interesting that little feature that gave that storm this morning . Can be seen on my timelapse from 1.55 onwards as it developed

 

[matty40s]

We are coming back in the morning from a 11pm 34c heat, and quite looking  forward to the refreshment.  You can live with the heat, but it involves regular water intake and limiting the excellent Italian coffee and alcohol intake.

The food however remains sublime.

[Windblade]

Still waiting for any rainfall whatsoever since friday night...let alone anything remotely stormy and so the forecast continues to be dry for these parts. 

[Metwatch]

Interesting in Norfolk yesterday maybe a supercell, the timelapse showed possibly some rotation. 

[The Tall Weatherman]

@Metwatch the sped up video version is showing rotation within the wall cloud with a clear RFB. We seem to be doing quite well at the moment with lower Cape days !

 

[Lt. Dan]

High shear, low cape environments. There are quite a few interesting papers out there (via Google) on this. 

[Eagle Eye]

Convective Outlook

Widespread 75+ J/KG of 3CAPE with locally 150+ J/KG of 3CAPE with a mainly surface trapped energy source should allow for sharp showers to form along a mainly surface-PBL PV lobe. Localised QG forcing should allow for increased ECAPE in areas and sharper showers modified by terrain. However, the flat lands of the risk area generally means this will be very minimal around hilly areas. The occluded front may act to help localised QG forcing areas from East Anglia up to areas just north of Sunderland area, given current occluded front track forecasts.

A fairly big depth of the warmth of the environmental temperature means that most energy stops fairly low down in the atmosphere, weakening total CAPE and lightning potential. Though QG forcing and the shearing may aid storm height development, it has to make up quite a lot of room to be above 20,000 feet which at this time of year, is a benchmark I tend to set for any good lightning events.

Buoyancy loses strength rather quickly with weak lift especially post PBL, again weakening vigorousness of convection. So lightning potential is weakened further despite the initial mentioned 3CAPE. Buoyancy is typically a good measure of hail risk when combined with LLLR's. I'd say some small localised hail is plausible but not much beyond about 1cm.

Fairly large PBL moisture is typically a good sign I find of the strength of rainfall and given the strength of 3CAPE, some heavy rainfall appears likely but lightning is likely to be sporadic at best. This, along the back edge of a moisture tongue which is moving south throughout the day but showers are not necessarily transferring south with it. Shower development will generally be sporadic along the moisture tongue, more associated with localised features and typical sea breezes than the moisture itself, so the theoretical strongest storm potential for tomorrow is unlikely to be maximised.

[Arnie Pie]

More Noctilucent Cloud hunt CG`s

edit

 

Edited July 18, 2023 by Arnie Pie

[Iceman2606]

The structures on these form July 2014

[Harry]

Friend of mine snapped this funnel cloud in Medway about half hour ago

Feel compelled to say rights on the photos reserved as they’re not mine 

[Thundery wintry showers]

Just heard a rumble of thunder to the south of Lincoln.  I initially wasn't sure if it was thunder or not, but the Met Office ATD system confirms that there was a strike nearby.

[fromthecab]