Storms and Convective discussion - July 2023

[SilverWolf]

1 hour ago, Eagle Eye said:

Convective inhibition is sort of the anti-CAPE. Think of it as taking away from how much CAPE can be used. Its not a direct 1 to 1 though. Above 200 is considered high CIN. Above about 100 I'd say is moderate and Above 20 is when it tends to affect convection slightly. Before that it doesn't really seem to affect much.

Lifted index is how buoyant an air parcels is. E.g. How much an air parcel can go up or is resistant to going on. In fact its useful I find in determining updraft widths and hail size forecasting. You can try and forecast storm strength using it if you want to but its not a guarantee of anything I find.

A good surface lift is below 0

One for decent storms is around below -5 I find. Beyond -8 and storms tend to become more severe.

If taken from the 850's level then anything below 0 is stormy.

Its the difference between the parcel and the environmental temperature.

Brilliant thank you… I did ask in the last proper stormy spell, but posts were coming thick and fast, and it got buried! Great explanation. 

[mike57]

Just had a number of rumbles of thunder and two visible flashes of lightning with some heavy rain. Main activity was to the North, just out to sea. I was not expecting that. Looking at radar it's very much just our corner of the Yorkshire Coast that is getting the storms.

[CoventryWeather]

Few showers around here, looks like a bit of wind convergence right into East Anglia. Eerie skies.

 

[A Face like Thunder]

2 hours ago, mike57 said:

Just had a number of rumbles of thunder and two visible flashes of lightning with some heavy rain. Main activity was to the North, just out to sea. I was not expecting that. Looking at radar it's very much just our corner of the Yorkshire Coast that is getting the storms.

Hopefully a quieter day tomorrow allowing some cricket to be played at Scarborough.

[Metwatch]

Another one I nabbed off reddit from the clouds page, this time closer to our shores from Kildare, Ireland.

Spoke to a weather enthusiast in that area, and he also caught something similar on the 19th of June back when Ireland was smothered in thunderstorms, (second photo) so likely the photo in the reddit post was also taken on that date. 

A very cool shot of that towering cumulus between what looks to be the anvil clouds.

Edited July 27, 2023 by Metwatch
Added second photo from the weather enthusiast.

[Metwatch]

In The fens tonight.

[fromthecab]

[Thunders]

It hasn’t stopped raining here all day

[matty40s]

48 minutes ago, Thunders said:

It hasn’t stopped raining here all day

That explains why your beaches are now closed because of sewage pollution. 

 

How much longer can we accept this as a normal in our country........3 years ago, this was unacceptable, and we were lauding the blue flag awards. 

 

 

[mike57]

11 hours ago, A Face like Thunder said:

Hopefully a quieter day tomorrow allowing some cricket to be played at Scarborough.

As I posted in the Yorkshire & E England group, a storm and cloudburst over Scarborough last night with flash flooding. Seems to be very local and tracked down the coast while moving out to sea, we just caught the edge.

[matty40s]

Indeed...

 

[mike57]

@matty40s Metoffice reports Scarborough as being wettest place yesterday at 40.2mm, and I dont know where the weather station is so some parts may have had higher totals. Looking at the radar it was very local, but with some high rainfall rates at the contre.

[Thunders]

11 hours ago, matty40s said:

That explains why your beaches are now closed because of sewage pollution. 

 

How much longer can we accept this as a normal in our country........3 years ago, this was unacceptable, and we were lauding the blue flag awards. 

 

 

i was there 2 days ago

[A Face like Thunder]

5 hours ago, mike57 said:

@matty40s Metoffice reports Scarborough as being wettest place yesterday at 40.2mm, and I dont know where the weather station is so some parts may have had higher totals. Looking at the radar it was very local, but with some high rainfall rates at the contre.

BBC Yorkshire Climate Correspondent Paul Hudson said the deluges were caused by a convergence line - a band of cloud which could cause heavy showers in a localised area - between Fylindgales and Bridlington. 

[Eagle Eye]

Convective Outlook 

A double Theta-E tongue slides into the southwest/Wales and the south/southeast overnight. In the early morning hours (2-6am), development is likely in both areas though there's a big
difference in Theta-E strength.

The western moisture tongue, is rather weak and provides little CAPE. MLCAPE stays low,around 200 J/KG and with only the slight moisture increase in the air, generally most developments should be sparodic showers. These types of events may yield a few lightning strikes despite the weak CAPE.

In the SE, there's only 300 J/KG of MLCAPE but a strong moisture tongue and enough PBL lift for showers and storms to develop. However, potentially -50 and more MLCIN could hinder development. If showers and storms can form then events like this tend to provide a few surprises given how humid it is and a possible PV lobe. So development occurring is hard to tell but if it does then I wouldn't be surprised if we saw an active storm in the channel or along the south/southeast coasts and inland slightly.

Into the day and a few sparodic storms from the little CAPE in place could occur. This is also given the remnant moisture in place. Showers from all the moisture and humidity with not much CAPE for anything more than very occasional lightning appears to be the most likely way the day will play out.

These appear quite likely in northern Ireland and up to western Scotland with potentially 700+ J/KG SBCAPE and enough lift for more widespread sparodic storms with some active lightning possible in a few areas but generally lightning is likely to be very sparodic throughout the day.

[Freeze]

Where are all the plumes?! Only had 1 brief early morning storm back on 20th June!

[A Face like Thunder]

19 minutes ago, Freeze said:

Where are all the plumes?! Only had 1 brief early morning storm back on 20th June!

Scarborough on Thursday as cricket fans will no doubt confirm!

[Rufus Butterfield]

 I think my location has had like 9 days of thunder so far and we’re not even in august yet. Prob one of the best years for a while.

I understand other places especially the south coast haven’t much but perhaps mid-late august and into  autumn (like last year) might give some surprises

[Freeze]

25 minutes ago, Rufus Butterfield said:

 I think my location has had like 9 days of thunder so far and we’re not even in august yet. Prob one of the best years for a while.

I understand other places especially the south coast haven’t much but perhaps mid-late august and into  autumn (like last year) might give some surprises

Autumn is normally good for here for storms especially under cyclonic southwestelies, sst at the warmest so hefty showers seem to 'hug' the coast.

[Eagle Eye]

Convective Outlook ️

 

A low pressure will run through Scot overnight bringing elev showers & t-storm. 

 

Further showers/storms can be expected throughout the day across E Scot

 

A warm front will head into E parts of Ire bringing the risk of the odd couple of lightning strikes.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

A change is a’comin

[Jamie M]

Low moving through on Wednesday, reckon we'll have a few thunderstorms

[Arnie Pie]

1 hour ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

A change is a’comin

It's been a long
A long time coming

[Thunders]

2 hours ago, Jamie M said:

Low moving through on Wednesday, reckon we'll have a few thunderstorms

Hopefully

 

[Eagle Eye]

Convective Outlook ️

An occluded front will run through Ireland, allowing showers to develop, bringing the risk of sporadic lightning.

Elevated showers will develop during the overnight period for Wales/parts of England. Sporadic lightning could be embedded with these showers.