Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

I’ll take a dry, mild any time if we got a few weeks of bitter cold and snow in January 

Ok, you’re on.

Mild dry and cloudy Christmas period, followed by a colder period from New Year’s Eve, with temps around 5-7c. But, dropping to 0c or -2c during the daytime by the 5th January. Staying cold or very cold until the 25th, with mostly clear blue skies, biting north east winds at times making it feel like -7 to -9c at times. 2-3 days of falling snow. No mild blip until the 26th, with temps no higher than 7-9c until the close of the month. 

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

I’ll take a dry, mild any time if we got a few weeks of bitter cold and snow in January 

Ha I just can't let a cold December go,ever.

Optimum time mid Dec to mid Jan but if I was asked if I would take a snowy 🌨 Xmas week if it meant foregoing Jan I think I would..

For me you just can't beat a snowy Xmas, for many reasons..

[Beanz]

10 hours ago, Frigid said:

Maybe Don, this will be the year we can put the 'Warm September Mild Winter Enigma' to rest 

Let’s hope so, it’s a BS theory.  I’m pretty sure the theory was debated years ago and debunked way back then as being unsupported nonsense. 

Edited September 6, 2023 by Beanz

[Sunny76]

19 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Ha I just can't let a cold December go,ever.

Optimum time mid Dec to mid Jan but if I was asked if I would take a snowy 🌨 Xmas week if it meant foregoing Jan I think I would..

For me you just can't beat a snowy Xmas, for many reasons..

I’ll sacrifice a cold frosty chrimbo for a better chance of snow in January.

1987 and February 1991 just can’t be beaten.

[Beanz]

26 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Ha I just can't let a cold December go,ever.

Optimum time mid Dec to mid Jan but if I was asked if I would take a snowy 🌨 Xmas week if it meant foregoing Jan I think I would..

For me you just can't beat a snowy Xmas, for many reasons..

Perfect, snowy December would be ideal! 

 

[damianslaw]

I think El Nino winters tend to favour cold post christmas rather than early on, conversely La Nina promotes early cold. Last year and 2010 especially support the la nina theory.

I keep coming back to 2009... Sept 09 was a very dry month, often blocked,but not in a position to bring notable warmth.. mmm could Sept 23 follow suit but with the warmth. July- Aug 09 and July- Aug 23 very very similiar.. both el nino years. Not sure if east qbo in 2009.

 

[SqueakheartLW]

16 hours ago, Don said:

Indeed, await Glosea update now with bated breath and need this exceptional heat to do one asap, but the breakdown looks to be put back as I feared, followed a resurgence of high pressure again!

Not looking good if this warm September / mild winter theory holds true yet again but imagine the irony if this very warm start to the month results in our first ever 17C CET September or even the possible chance that September ends up warmer than June 2023 and ends up the warmest month of 2023.

[Frigid]

Just now, SqueakheartLW said:

Not looking good if this warm September / mild winter theory holds true yet again but imagine the irony if this very warm start to the month results in our first ever 17C CET September or even the possible chance that September ends up warmer than June 2023 and ends up the warmest month of 2023.

Guess it all depends on the second half, if it's anything like 2011 then 17C is likely but if it's like 2015/2020/2022 then probably not.  Still I feel like a 15C CET looks unlikely. 

[Don]

2 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Not looking good if this warm September / mild winter theory holds true yet again but imagine the irony if this very warm start to the month results in our first ever 17C CET September or even the possible chance that September ends up warmer than June 2023 and ends up the warmest month of 2023.

No, it’s not looking good for winter, unless me buck the trend this year!  A 17C plus CET would imo only mean worse news for an even milder winter!

2 hours ago, Frigid said:Still I feel like a 15C CET looks unlikely. 

Yes, I think we’ve blown that now!

[Don]

8 hours ago, Beanz said:

Let’s hope so, it’s a BS theory.  I’m pretty sure the theory was debated years ago and debunked way back then as being unsupported nonsense. 

It’s not a BS theory at all!   There are reputable forecasters out there who support this theory and I would advise to ignore it at your peril!!

Until we get a cold winter following  a warm/hot September, I will stand by this!

Edited September 6, 2023 by Don

[Sunny76]

12 minutes ago, Don said:

It’s not a BS theory at all!   There are reputable forecasters out there who support this theory and I would advise to ignore it at your peril!!

Until we get a cold winter following  a warm/hot September, I will stand by this!

I think we’ve had cold winters following warm Septembers before. 2009 and 10 were warmish, and those winters were cold, or chilly. 
 

September 80 was a warm month, winter followed was snowless in the south.

September 82 was warm, following winter had a cold February with some snow.

September 85 was warm and sunny, winter that followed was cold.

September 1991 was warm, mild winter followed that.

September 95 was warm, and a cold winter followed.

September 97 and 98 were both warm, and followed by mild winters.

Just using some examples from the 80s and 90s, and it looks to me that a warm September doesn’t nail down a mild winter for certain. 

[summer blizzard]

19 minutes ago, Don said:

It’s not a BS theory at all!   There are reputable forecasters out there who support this theory and I would advise to ignore it at your peril!!

Until we get a cold winter following  a warm/hot September, I will stand by this!

Statistically speaking it's a recent thing. Across the whole record there's no link but it is more common in recent decades. I tend to believe that this is anomolous though. 

[Don]

8 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

I think we’ve had cold winters following warm Septembers before. 2009 and 10 were warmish, and those winters were cold, or chilly. 
 

September 80 was a warm month, winter followed was snowless in the south.

September 82 was warm, following winter had a cold February with some snow.

September 85 was warm and sunny, winter that followed was cold.

September 1991 was warm, mild winter followed that.

September 95 was warm, and a cold winter followed.

September 97 and 98 were both warm, and followed by mild winters.

Just using some examples from the 80s and 90s, and it looks to me that a warm September doesn’t nail down a mild winter for certain. 

September 1995 was not warm with a CET of 13.7C, it was very close to the 61-90 average and September 2010 only had a CET of 13.8C.  Also, those Septembers listed followed by a cold winter were only moderately warmer than average, which is less of an issue.

Edited September 6, 2023 by Don

[sundog]

2006,11, 16, 21. All recent  very warm Septembers followed by crap winters. 

Edited September 6, 2023 by sundog

[Frigid]

1 minute ago, sundog said:

2006,11, 16, 21. All  very warm Septembers followed by crap winters. 

You can even go as far back as 1795. Had a CET of 16.0 and the following winter was one of the mildest on record. 

[Weather Enthusiast91]

Can't believe people are giving up on winter already when we are only just out of summer. This must be a record for the earliest "winter is over" posts yet. 

[Sunny76]

6 minutes ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

Can't believe people are giving up on winter already when we are only just out of summer. This must be a record for the earliest "winter is over" posts yet. 

If I had a Time Machine, I would transport myself to next April. Winter is a season I can do without, while I remain in the U.K. 

[sundog]

7 minutes ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

Can't believe people are giving up on winter already when we are only just out of summer. This must be a record for the earliest "winter is over" posts yet. 

Not necessarily giving up on this winter. Just an extra fear it could be poor. For now the seasonal models at least  do give hope. 

[Sunny76]

1 minute ago, sundog said:

Not necessarily giving up on this winter. Just an extra fear it could be poor. For now the seasonal models at least  do give hope. 

U.K. winters are usually poor for snow lovers, but that still doesn’t mean it won’t be cold at times. 

[Beanz]

42 minutes ago, Don said:

It’s not a BS theory at all!   There are reputable forecasters out there who support this theory and I would advise to ignore it at your peril!!

Until we get a cold winter following  a warm/hot September, I will stand by this!

Oh come on, I cannot for the life of me think of one reputable forecaster that would support this theory.  You could equally argue that a cold September would be followed by a cold winter, because there is support for that too. 

What's more, as our climate changes, statistical pattern matching becomes even more tenuous than it already was.  

 

 

[cheeky_monkey]

49 minutes ago, Don said:

It’s not a BS theory at all!   There are reputable forecasters out there who support this theory and I would advise to ignore it at your peril!!

Until we get a cold winter following  a warm/hot September, I will stand by this!

anyone who thinks that an above average temp for a month in an area 1/3 the size of England has an impact on global weather patterns for the following winter months is crazy bonkers.

[summer blizzard]

10 minutes ago, Frigid said:

You can even go as far back as 1795. Had a CET of 16.0 and the following winter was one of the mildest on record. 

The winter of 1730 followed a September CET of 16.6C and was average to cool from Dec-March. 

The winter of 1781 follwed a September CET of 15.6C and had a cold December-Jan, cool Feb-March. 

March 1796 follwed a September CET of 16.0C and had a very warm Dec-Jan, yes.. but a stonker of a March. 

That is just top 10, if we went further into the 15C+ years i'm sure the signal would be varied as well.  

[Beanz]

20 minutes ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

Can't believe people are giving up on winter already when we are only just out of summer. This must be a record for the earliest "winter is over" posts yet. 

We're discussing the fact winter is over, based on a warm September, IN SEPTEMBER!  

Anyway, I think I called winter is over in August, so I'm claiming first spot 

Edited September 6, 2023 by Beanz

[SqueakheartLW]

24 minutes ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

Can't believe people are giving up on winter already when we are only just out of summer. This must be a record for the earliest "winter is over" posts yet. 

The first one was I think on the 1st or 2nd. I replied to it and it should be in my comment history

LOL. It's so funny when they do it on the first day of September.

Wonder when we'll have "winter is over" posts in August?

[Don]

11 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

anyone who thinks that an above average temp for a month in an area 1/3 the size of England has an impact on global weather patterns for the following winter months is crazy bonkers.

Thank you very much!!  A bit like some people are crazy rude!  Anyway, I won’t say anymore on the matter as I’ve said enough now!  See ya in March!