Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts

[Blessed Weather]

A little earlier than usual, but as there seems to be a fair bit of interest on the forum already to discuss the upcoming prospects for Winter 2023/24, here's a new thread to capture everyones thinking and forecasts for the approaching winter season. It would be good to make this thread the 'go-to' for all the seasonal model output and discussions about the 23/24 winter.

For anyone new to looking at seasonal prospects, here's a few links that you may find useful:

Copernicus Seasonal Models

Met Office Contingency Planner 3 Month Outlook (not yet relevant, but the link provided for future reference)

Severe Weather Europe - their thoughts on how the emerging El Nino could impact prospects.

If you’d like to know more from the Met Office about seasonal forecasts and the teleconnection drivers, have a look at this link:

Seasonal forecasts and climate drivers resources

As always, please keep discussions friendly and respectful.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Thank you for the thread, better having it in here than in the model thread

[Seasonal Trim]

Cheers @Blessed Weather. Would never have dreamed of creating a Winter thread during the Summer normally. 

Always look forward to the Winter season. Would love a rerun of 2010. 

[Sunny76]

A very mild winter I think. No daytime highs below 10c for the whole season.

[Frigid]

58 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

A very mild winter I think. No daytime highs below 10c for the whole season.

A very pessimistic outlook, don't think that's even possible. Dec 15 had some days below 10C. 

We're due a proper belter of a winter, it's been way too long since we've had one. 20/21 came close, December 2022 was another great winter's month but it's been more than a decade since we've seen a classic. That said, I don't think we'll get such winter.. the odds are always against us. I expect January to be the coldest month with December and February milder. There's been a clear trend of February's being the milder month but I doubt it'll be anything like 2023. 

[SollyOlly]

1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

A very mild winter I think. No daytime highs below 10c for the whole season.

I really hope not! But do suspect that it might be a milder one. And hope I'm wrong!

4 minutes ago, Frigid said:

A very pessimistic outlook, don't think that's even possible. Dec 15 had some days below 10C. 

We're due a proper belter of a winter, it's been way too long since we've had one. 20/21 came close, December 2022 was another great winter's month but it's been more than a decade since we've seen a classic. That said, I don't think we'll get such winter.. the odds are always against us. I expect January to be the coldest month with December and February milder. There's been a clear trend of February's being the milder month but I doubt it'll be anything like 2023. 

Yes, Feb almost seems like an early Spring month these days, doesn't it...and to think, when I was younger it was often the coldest of the cold months. 

The first half of December last year was magnificent to a coldie like me. Obviously, not sustainable in the current climate, but some of those hard frosts and sparkling sunny, cold days were a sight to behold. Maybe we can at least get some of those this winter...?

[raz.org.rain]

I would suspect the excess moisture in the atmosphere this year would give us both abnormally cold and snowy days and warm and humid days.

The longer range forecasts keep hinting at a cold season with snow potential but I can't see that happening. Only weather I'm expecting with any degree of confidence is warmer than average and likely wetter than average. A repeat of December 2015 seems the likely scenario.

[Dark Horse]

20 minutes ago, SollyOlly said:

I really hope not! But do suspect that it might be a milder one. And hope I'm wrong!

Yes, Feb almost seems like an early Spring month these days, doesn't it...and to think, when I was younger it was often the coldest of the cold months. 

The first half of December last year was magnificent to a coldie like me. Obviously, not sustainable in the current climate, but some of those hard frosts and sparkling sunny, cold days were a sight to behold. Maybe we can at least get some of those this winter...?

Last December was very enjoyable just a shame it lacked snow, well for most of the country. But the frost that lingered in the shade for getting on for a fortnight was great.

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, Frigid said:

A very pessimistic outlook, don't think that's even possible. Dec 15 had some days below 10C. 

We're due a proper belter of a winter, it's been way too long since we've had one. 20/21 came close, December 2022 was another great winter's month but it's been more than a decade since we've seen a classic. That said, I don't think we'll get such winter.. the odds are always against us. I expect January to be the coldest month with December and February milder. There's been a clear trend of February's being the milder month but I doubt it'll be anything like 2023. 

It’s not pessimistic, when we all know it’s going to be mild. 
 

Im not looking forward to winter, because it will be one boring dull and mild slog.

[Don]

3 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

A very mild winter I think. No daytime highs below 10c for the whole season.

It had better not be!! 

[Sunny76]

6 minutes ago, Don said:

It had better not be!! 

Come back to this at the end of next February.

Mark my words, it’s going to stay mild.

[MP-R]

8 minutes ago, Don said:

It had better not be!! 

I don’t think that’s even possible at our latitude.

[Don]

2 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Come back to this at the end of next February.

Mark my words, it’s going to stay mild.

Maybe, but no maximums below 10C?  Not sure that's ever happened before?!  Even the mild fests of 1988/89 and 2006/7 didn't manage that.

I will indeed come back to this at the end of February and will either give you a pat on the back or tell you to wipe the egg off your face! 

Edited August 6, 2023 by Don

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Think a near average winter at this stage is probably my conservative estimate with mild and cold bits cancelling each other out.  I think it'll be a warmer winter overall than 2022-23 but not as warm as 2021-22.   

Edited August 6, 2023 by Addicks Fan 1981

[Weather Enthusiast91]

Hoping for more of the same of what we had during the first half of last December along with some snow. I also think we are long overdue a cold February now. I am not interested in false springs as February is a winter month, not a spring month. And more often than not, springlike Februaries don't bode well for the following spring.

 

Edited August 6, 2023 by Weather Enthusiast91

[Don]

Just now, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Think a near average winter at this stage is probably my conservative estimate with mild and cold bits cancelling each other out.  I think it'll be a warmer winter overall than 2022-23 but not as warm as 2021-22.   

Winter 2022/23 was milder than average though, so this coming winter won't be near average if that's the case?

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Reckon it'll be slightly milder than average though and if I'm predicting 5.3 or 5.4 as the CET for the whole winter.   

[Sunny76]

8 minutes ago, Don said:

Maybe, but no maximums below 10C?  Not sure that's ever happened before?!  Even the mild fests of 1988/89 and 2006/7 didn't manage that.

I will indeed come back to this at the end of February and will either give you a pat on the back or tell you to wipe the egg off your face! 

I seriously hope it’s me who has the egg on the face, but I’m really not looking forward to what could be a very mild and miserable winter season. 

4 minutes ago, Don said:

Winter 2022/23 was milder than average though, so this coming winter won't be near average if that's the case?

Winter 22 had some chilly periods. We won’t get anything close to December 22.

[Don]

26 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Winter 22 had some chilly periods. We won’t get anything close to December 22.

So did winter 2006/07 but was still very mild overall.  Anyway, how are you so confident this coming winter will be so mild?  I know the chances are it probably will be mild, but not sure about exceptionally so?

Edited August 6, 2023 by Don

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 hours ago, Dark Horse said:

Last December was very enjoyable just a shame it lacked snow, well for most of the country. But the frost that lingered in the shade for getting on for a fortnight was great.

That's the beauty of getting proper winter close to the solstice. The sun is as weak as can be and frost can linger for days on end if the set up is right.

1 hour ago, Don said:

So did winter 2006/07 but was still very mild overall.  Anyway, how are you so confident this coming winter will be so mild?  I know the chances are it probably will be mild, but not sure about exceptionally so?

At least I saw a belter of a snowfall in Feb 2007. Heaviest frontal snow I've ever seen, absolute bedlam on the roads with cars skidding all over the place.

[Frigid]

4 hours ago, razorgrain said:

I would suspect the excess moisture in the atmosphere this year would give us both abnormally cold and snowy days and warm and humid days.

The longer range forecasts keep hinting at a cold season with snow potential but I can't see that happening. Only weather I'm expecting with any degree of confidence is warmer than average and likely wetter than average. A repeat of December 2015 seems the likely scenario.

How so? December 2015 was a freak event.. 1.5C higher than any preceding December in the CET series. To get another month similar to it would be a great achievement.. and something I hope to never experience again. 

[Sunny76]

8 hours ago, Don said:

So did winter 2006/07 but was still very mild overall.  Anyway, how are you so confident this coming winter will be so mild?  I know the chances are it probably will be mild, but not sure about exceptionally so?

I’m basically setting the bar very low to avoid disappointment.

I would love a cold frosty winter, with the cold Christmas, but can’t see it happening this year. 
 

Like I said earlier, come back to this thread later in the year and see who’s right.

15-16c on Christmas Day this year as well. I’m calling it now.

[LetItSnow!]

10 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

It’s not pessimistic, when we all know it’s going to be mild. 
 

Im not looking forward to winter, because it will be one boring dull and mild slog.

Despite just being one month, no one in November 2022 could have thought December 2022 would be as cold and snowy (especially in the south) as it was. Same how the warm weather through 2020 preceded a colder winter, especially in Scotland where January 2021 was quite the cold month. Not winter but spring 2021 also took people off guard. They’re still the exception to the norm, yes, but posts like these don’t really add  much. Anything can happen really, even in a warm biased weather pattern. It’s always best to remain open. 

[Bobd29]

1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

I’m basically setting the bar very low to avoid disappointment.

I would love a cold frosty winter, with the cold Christmas, but can’t see it happening this year. 
 

Like I said earlier, come back to this thread later in the year and see who’s right.

15-16c on Christmas Day this year as well. I’m calling it now.

Can’t let this go as a confirmed Christmas lover. 15C would be awful I’m going for a 4C max Xmas day which will already have 6inches of level snow on the ground…with more to come.

[Blessed Weather]

As it's very relevant to this thread, I'd like to copy over a couple of posts regarding the latest ECMWF seasonal outlook for D/J/F made on X (twitter) and in the Model thread. First, the ECM forecasts as posted by Nick on X which includes a response from James Peacock:

And this post discussing the ECM forecast made by @CreweCold:

Having higher than average heights around Greenland would be very good news for winter lovers. Temperature anomaly charts will always show warmer than average at this lead time…there’s hardly any below average shown anywhere. It’s the height anomalies that need to be taken notice of.
It’s hinting at a stronger S arm of the jet, which may send LP into France rather than across the UK. One of our snowiest set ups E.g 78/79
There’s a signal for a cold Europe there.
It’s a very 09/10 signal with that European trough. I saw an overnight low of -15 that winter. The UKs coldest winter since 78/79.
If you follow the ENSO thread, you’ll know this scenario has been my thinking for a month or two now.

Fww, I agree with Crewe. This seasonal forecast, from the best model out there, contains some encouraging early pointers if some cold, seasonal weather is your thing.