Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts

[Don]

1 minute ago, RJBingham said:

Well that's calmed the thread down a bit 

Yeah, a kick in the winter wotsits!! 

[mulzy]

17 hours ago, Don said:

I wish I could say the same for me as it would save so much disappointment.  However, no chance and if anything I'm worse for it now than when I was a kid!!

If it is not cold and snowy, mild and dry will do.  I despise the wetness and storminess and the fake cold.

[SqueakheartLW]

For those of us who want a better chance of colder weather this winter this SST anomaly change chart will fill you with coldies glee

Look at the ENSO region and all those blues in the eastern Pacific and the oranges in the western Pacific. Are we finally seeing a change taking place and the Nino shifting from an EP event to a CP one?

You can also clearly see this trend on the NOAA chart too.

The latest tropical tidbits anomaly values also show that in general the NINO 4 and 3.4 regions have warmed slightly since the end of July whilst there has been general cooling in NINO 3 and 1+2

Hope this trend continues on and gives us a CP El Nino by the time late autumn and winter arrive.

Edited August 13, 2023 by SqueakheartLW

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

For those of us who want a better chance of colder weather this winter this SST anomaly change chart will fill you with coldies glee

Look at the ENSO region and all those blues in the eastern Pacific and the oranges in the western Pacific. Are we finally seeing a change taking place and the Nino shifting from an EP event to a CP one?

You can also clearly see this trend on the NOAA chart too.

The latest tropical tidbits anomaly values also show that in general the NINO 4 and 3.4 regions have warmed slightly since the end of July whilst there has been general cooling in NINO 3 and 1+2

Hope this trend continues on and gives us a CP El Nino by the time late autumn and winter arrive.

I had a sneaking suspicion it might turn into a CP event, posted in the ENSO thread a couple of weeks back.

[SqueakheartLW]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I had a sneaking suspicion it might turn into a CP event, posted in the ENSO thread a couple of weeks back.

Maybe the developing EQBO is playing a part here. The same thing happened in 2009,

[Cheshire Freeze]

31 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Maybe the developing EQBO is playing a part here. The same thing happened in 2009,

Quite possibly, that’s why I believed there to be a chance it could happen.

[viking_smb]

i want it to be cold and wet, loads of rain and snow, lovely. 

[Chesil View]

On 12/08/2023 at 08:29, RJBingham said:

sniffing the nino coffee.

This is from the " ultra reliable" CFS. 

I doubt its coffee it been sniffing.  

[cheeky_monkey]

for my location I'm predicting a front loaded winter with December prior to Xmas being the coldest part of the season...i expect it to warm through January on into February with Spring an early arrival come Mid March 

 

for the UK it will be wet. 

[Eagle Eye]

I think over forced and we end up with a pretty typical winter of people throwing toys out the pram before a short spell with lots of snow dumped in the one place no one in the model thread seems to live in the UK. El Nino is typically pretty good but not the it's as strings it will likely be.

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, cheeky_monkey said:

for my location I'm predicting a front loaded winter with December prior to Xmas being the coldest part of the season...i expect it to warm through January on into February with Spring an early arrival come Mid March 

 

for the UK it will be wet. 

Anything but wet  

 

[NEVES SCREAMER]

Winter 88/89 please. Very satisfactory. 

To be honest. High pressure has been absent during summer 2023. It can do one during the winter as well. And then nicely emerge about April 2024.

[lassie23]

I'm going to stick my turkey neck out and predict Snow in November. 

[chilly milly]

27 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

I'm going to stick my turkey neck out and predict Snow in November. 

Is that what your nuts are telling you?

[lassie23]

3 minutes ago, chilly milly said:

Is that what your nuts are telling you?

lol at the moment yes.

[chilly milly]

2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

lol at the moment yes.

I hope they don't shrivel and put paid to your LRF.

[blizzard81]

4 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

for my location I'm predicting a front loaded winter with December prior to Xmas being the coldest part of the season...i expect it to warm through January on into February with Spring an early arrival come Mid March 

 

for the UK it will be wet. 

Although the snow in your area is of the powder variety, except maybe in Spring, ours tends to be more 'wet' in nature so I will take a 'wet' winter. As long as it's the white type of wet.

[cheeky_monkey]

12 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Although the snow in your area is of the powder variety, except maybe in Spring, ours tends to be more 'wet' in nature so I will take a 'wet' winter. As long as it's the white type of wet.

i would be ecstatic if i had zero snow..but there is zero chance of that happening...lots of sunshine is my best bet for a good winter 

[Sunny76]

7 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

i would be ecstatic if i had zero snow..but there is zero chance of that happening...lots of sunshine is my best bet for a good winter 

Lol, I love snow and was excited to see it during the first winter I spent in Toronto. But, after 5-10 days of it, it soon wears thin.

I got sick and tired of seeing it during winter 2000/01, as that was one of their coldest and snowiest at the time.

[Premiere Neige]

I watched Gav's weather video on Sunday and he was doing some long range stuff. He looks at the Peitao Peng model which seems to be going for lots of northern blocking this winter. I don't know much about it other than it is an analogue based forecast using SST's. Does anyone have any idea what it's verification stats are like. If memory serves, it did quite well for winter 21/22. Can't remember what it was predicting last winter...

[Weatherman_93]

On 06/08/2023 at 20:26, Frigid said:

We're due a proper belter of a winter

This is said every year 

[Mike Poole]

4 hours ago, Premier Neige said:

I watched Gav's weather video on Sunday and he was doing some long range stuff. He looks at the Peitao Peng model which seems to be going for lots of northern blocking this winter. I don't know much about it other than it is an analogue based forecast using SST's. Does anyone have any idea what its verification stats are like. If memory serves, it did quite well for winter 21/22. Can't remember what it was predicting last winter...

Sounds interesting, so I took a look.  It seems this is developed by a scientist at NOAA, and is indeed a model based on SST analogues.  Here’s the latest - it’s height at 200 hPa (so not our usual plot) for December, January and February:

Blocked!

The temperatures for February are special - the cold stretches towards the UK from Siberia:

Nice eye candy.  But we know that SSTs are completely out of kilter this year, so whatever the model is doing it is not going to be interpolating past evolutions, it must be wildly extrapolating, so probably best to take with a large pinch of salt this far out.  But interesting, nonetheless, to watch this alongside the numerical models as we count down to winter.  

Edited August 15, 2023 by Mike Poole

[Mike Poole]

IOD watch.  Latest update from the BOM, has the peak in October from the models as follows:

ECM has wound its neck in a bit from the +1.9 it was showing last update, which is good news, but we’re not out of the woods yet with Meteo (I presume France!) giving a it a run for its money.  UKMO not really interested. 

Edited August 15, 2023 by Mike Poole

[Premiere Neige]

48 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Sounds interesting, so I took a look.  It seems this is developed by a scientist at NOAA, and is indeed a model based on SST analogues.  Here’s the latest - it’s height at 200 hPa (so not our usual plot) for December, January and February:

Blocked!

The temperatures for February are special - the cold stretches towards the UK from Siberia:

Nice eye candy.  But we know that SSTs are completely out of kilter this year, so whatever the model is doing it is not going to be interpolating past evolutions, it must be wildly extrapolating, so probably best to take with a large pinch of salt this far out.  But interesting, nonetheless, to watch this alongside the numerical models as we count down to winter.  

Interesting that on the previous update in July the blocking was there on the Peitao Peng model but the August update the blocking signal has strengthened. I'm not holding my breath but if it's showing the same in September and again in October I might start to get a little bit excited. 

[summer blizzard]

Credit to a member called 40/70 elsewhere. 

 

 

So not totally stellar albeit nothing zonal.