Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts

[Weather Enthusiast91]

Hoping for a 2020/21 redux. That winter was quite mixed and had something for everybody.

[Don]

10 hours ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

Hoping for a 2020/21 redux. That winter was quite mixed and had something for everybody.

Yes, I would be ok with that!

[RJBingham]

Another 19/20 winter would be nice, except a bit milder 

[SqueakheartLW]

34 minutes ago, RJBingham said:

Another 19/20 winter would be nice, except a bit milder 

No thank you. Any repeat of a 2013/14, 2015/16, 2019/20 or 2021/22 would be a horror show too many.

[raz.org.rain]

36 minutes ago, RJBingham said:

Another 19/20 winter would be nice, except a bit milder 

I hope so. Already had too much cooler than average weather this year, a cold winter would be a kick in the teeth.

[Weather-history]

44 minutes ago, RJBingham said:

Another 19/20 winter would be nice, except a bit milder 

No thanks. February was off the scale in terms of wetness here. Absolutely ridiculous.

Edited August 19, 2023 by Weather-history
,

[SqueakheartLW]

1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

No thanks. February was off the scale in term so wetness here. Absolutely ridiculous.

If I chose a milder winter if we couldn't have a colder one I'd pick the previous one 2018/19.

At least it wasn't a washout winter and had a little cold and snow 2nd half of Jan and early Feb and at least had that memorable warm spell later in Feb.

2019/20 was just a horror show that generally got worse as the autumn .... errm I mean winter went on.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

I personally think we have had more than enough rain and cloud over the last 5 months, so a cold dry and sunny winter will be a very welcome change. The problem with mild winters is that more often than not they are accompanied by dull and wet conditions. I actually feel colder when it is 10 Celsius and wet than when it is 2 Celsius and sunny and dry. 

In fact, during that cold spell last December I had my heating on for no longer than I did during the milder periods of that winter.

Edited August 19, 2023 by Weather Enthusiast91

[SqueakheartLW]

Some nice pre Christmas cold showing up here on CFS 18z 9 month run

Unfortunately this is about as good as it got on this run for the winter itself although we see a late March 2024 wintry surprise too.

[Premiere Neige]

13 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Some nice pre Christmas cold showing up here on CFS 18z 9 month run

Unfortunately this is about as good as it got on this run for the winter itself although we see a late March 2024 wintry surprise too.

Just got to get this down to T0 and hope for an extension to the cold spell and/or further cold spells to pop up!

[Premiere Neige]

Anyone know where the "Snow and Ice in the northern hemisphere" thread is hiding. I've looked for it and done a search but can't seem to locate it...

[Midlands Ice Age]

7 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:

Anyone know where the "Snow and Ice in the northern hemisphere" thread is hiding. I've looked for it and done a search but can't seem to locate it...

WE have to create a new one for the winter 2024 season...... normally when we see the first signs of snow in the northern hemisphere.

Probably 2 weeks away yet. 

MIA

[Beanz]

17 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

WE have to create a new one for the winter 2024 season...... normally when we see the first signs of snow in the northern hemisphere.

Probably 2 weeks away yet. 

MIA

I always look forward it

[Premiere Neige]

48 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

WE have to create a new one for the winter 2024 season...... normally when we see the first signs of snow in the northern hemisphere.

Probably 2 weeks away yet. 

MIA

Thanks. Wasn't sure if there was a new one every year or just continued from previous years but I know we're coming up to the end of the melt season (if memory serves).

[Midlands Ice Age]

23 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:

Thanks. Wasn't sure if there was a new one every year or just continued from previous years but I know we're coming up to the end of the melt season (if memory serves).

It boils down to a  pixel search in Northern Siberia 

[Premiere Neige]

7 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

It boils down to a  pixel search in Northern Siberia 

Are the charts available to the public for free? And if so do you have a link please?

[SqueakheartLW]

This is interesting how CFS is already going for a weaker vortex right out to November.

Maybe why a lot of long range models are showing blocking signals.

[Midlands Ice Age]

1 hour ago, Premier Neige said:

Are the charts available to the public for free? And if so do you have a link please?

I normaly start off by using this site -

https://usicecenter.gov/Products/ImsCharts

When the first signs are visible... (Actually one or two can be seen on the mountains there, but we do not really count those.)

The maps are the ones commonly displayed on here at the start of the snowfall season.

MIA

[RJBingham]

Mild and dry

 

Winter forecast 2023/2024: First in-depth Winter weather outlook and how the pressure patterns will develop under the strong El Nino event » Severe Weather Europe

WWW.SEVERE-WEATHER.EU

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A first look at the Winter 2023/2024 forecast for the United States, Canada, and Europe shows a strong influence of the growing El Nino event

 

Edited August 21, 2023 by RJBingham

[Beanz]

27 minutes ago, RJBingham said:

Mild and dry

 

Winter forecast 2023/2024: First in-depth Winter weather outlook and how the pressure patterns will develop under the strong El Nino event » Severe Weather Europe

WWW.SEVERE-WEATHER.EU

---

A first look at the Winter 2023/2024 forecast for the United States, Canada, and Europe shows a strong influence of the growing El Nino event

 

I don’t understand how if, as the article suggests, the main circulation is expected to be from the north to the south, this would produce mild and dry for the U.K. surely it would be more likely to be cold and dry? 

[Kgas79]

Hi new to this forum. Hiw are we looking this winter. I feel its going to be a really cold one this year. In terms of temperature how cold will we get to. -1 -2?

[Premiere Neige]

11 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

I normaly start off by using this site -

https://usicecenter.gov/Products/ImsCharts

When the first signs are visible... (Actually one or two can be seen on the mountains there, but we do not really count those.)

The maps are the ones commonly displayed on here at the start of the snowfall season.

MIA

Thanks MIA

[Premiere Neige]

1 hour ago, Beanz said:

I don’t understand how if, as the article suggests, the main circulation is expected to be from the north to the south, this would produce mild and dry for the U.K. surely it would be more likely to be cold and dry? 

I wouldn't take this forecast as gospel. It does say that the seasonal models are not 100% in agreement. Also depends how strong el niño actually gets and the forecast doesn't take the QBO into account which should be in it's easterly phase. Also, if we get an SSW then we don't know what the fall out from that would be.

[RJBingham]

1 hour ago, Beanz said:

I don’t understand how if, as the article suggests, the main circulation is expected to be from the north to the south, this would produce mild and dry for the U.K. surely it would be more likely to be cold and dry? 

Goodness knows, I think any predictions/ models this far out need to be taken with a massive dose of salt, still the article is out there so worth a read anyway. 

[RJBingham]

If you are after building a snowman this winter, don't look.

 

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