Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts

[SollyOlly]

18 minutes ago, Beanz said:

Perfect time to take a holiday then, no kids, cheap hotels and nice weather - what’s not to like…??

Without wanting to veer too far off topic, that is a very good point...! Mrs S-O and I are lucky enough now to have our kids grown up, and jobs that are (just) about flexible enough to take leave at times more or less of our choosing, so we have been rediscovering the delights of holidays in May and/or September...not just the lower cost, but usually some very nice weather too. I'm talking central/ southern Europe, mind. 

[Nick2373]

57 minutes ago, SunnyG said:

Won't happen. This winter will be mild to very mild.  The bets are in

Depends which way you look at the current set up and conditions, if this pattern was to persists throughout the  winter period we would see temps below or close to average. The winds have been pretty much for the last two months more of a Westly or North Westly direction will this continue is this question, the Jet stream seems to be putting the UK on the cooler side of the jet again will this continue.

If these factors to persists into the winter months it may bring colder conditions, and then again the Jet could decided to go further North bring warmer conditions to the UK.  The UK is pretty hard to suggest or even forecast at times weather wise but percentage wise the UK tends to have milder conditions because of other global factors. So really the default weather UK winter is 80% likely to be mild with some winter events being once every 30 plus years, the really last one i remember was 1982/83 here in the south west was the drifts and being snowed in since then its been pretty much Mah here in the South west wales in terms of cold stopping weather.   

[blizzard81]

42 minutes ago, Beanz said:

Perfect time to take a holiday then, no kids, cheap hotels and nice weather - what’s not to like…??

Shame for those with young families though who don't have the choice. 

12 hours ago, Don said:

Yes, but the next run could flip back to a cool start to autumn, with the tropics potentially creating havoc for the models?  However, a return to summer would be typical of recent years! 

ECM sticking to it's guns unfortunately. 

[Don]

3 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

ECM sticking to it's guns unfortunately. 

Well, it's just gonna have to unstick to its guns innit and if it doesn't, then that's your fault! 

[SqueakheartLW]

Just now, Don said:

Well, it's just gonna have to unstick to its guns innit and if it doesn't, then that's your fault! 

Remember the important months are in the winter. We can have a mild autumn then a cold winter. Didn't 2005 have a mild autumn followed by a colder than average winter?

[Don]

Just now, SqueakheartLW said:

Remember the important months are in the winter. We can have a mild autumn then a cold winter. Didn't 2005 have a mild autumn followed by a colder than average winter?

Warm autumns are not necessarily an issue, but very warm/summery Septembers do not bode well.  2005 did indeed have a very warm autumn and I think it was the warmest on record at the time?  September 2005 had a CET of 15.2C and although winter 2005/06 was close to being very cold, it didn't quite come off.

[SqueakheartLW]

September 2015 was colder than average and we all know what happened when December arrived

MILDEST DECEMBER ON RECORD BY A BIG MARGIN

[Don]

7 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

September 2015 was colder than average and we all know what happened when December arrived

MILDEST DECEMBER ON RECORD BY A BIG MARGIN

Yes, I'm well aware of that!!

Colder Septembers by no means guarantee cold winters and remember winter 2015/16 occurred during a Super Nino combined with a WQBO, which was always likely to override any positive signals, so not a great example really.

Edited August 28, 2023 by Don

[summer blizzard]

Reading back, i think several of you are mistaking basin wide and Modiki. 

[SqueakheartLW]

On 26/08/2023 at 14:05, Don said:

I'm happy to donate my fan lol! 

Apparently the IOD is very positive at the moment, which also needs to be taken into account, as very positive IOD's are not good for a cold winter in this part of the world.  We need to hope this moves back to less positive, neutral or negative for winter.

Hope it isn't as positive as 2019. Maybe we can get away with it if it isn't too positive.

2023

2019

Looks more positive at this stage in 2019 to me.

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Reading back, i think several of you are mistaking basin wide and Modiki. 

I just personally think we’ll end up Modoki.

The odds are against at the moment obviously, I just have a suspicion it’ll be weaker and more central based than the modelling suggested.

[RJBingham]

43 minutes ago, Don said:

Well, it's just gonna have to unstick to its guns innit and if it doesn't, then that's your fault! 

I've always liked the GFS  

[MP-R]

17 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

The weather is becoming tyranically predictable now unfortunately. I looked at the latest ecm 10 day run tonight and wished I hadn't. The runs previous to this had us down for a nice autumnal cool start to September - very 80's esq. The latest run however has summer return just as the schools return -  YET AGAIN. This is happening every year now and has been for many years. You don't even have to watch any forecasts. Early September is just a given. The weather is on a loop whether we like it or not. The real question is why? 

One only has to go back 1 year to see that this is simply not the case.

Anyway, I haven’t seen any trend for any particular type of weather for this coming September. Each day churns out something different. Even if we do get a burst of late summer, better earlier on than still getting the synoptics long into the autumn…

[Sunny76]

I don’t know why a mild winter is always a bad thing. A dry mild one would be ok, if we can’t have a cold crisp or snowy one.

For me it’s the rain that really makes things depressing for long periods of time.

[cheeky_monkey]

5 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

I don’t know why a mild winter is always a bad thing. A dry mild one would be ok, if we can’t have a cold crisp or snowy one.

 

1991-92 Springs to mind here 

[Sunny76]

4 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

1991-92 Springs to mind here 

Yeah and 79-80 was a dry mild one. 

[markyo]

18 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

I don’t know why a mild winter is always a bad thing. A dry mild one would be ok, if we can’t have a cold crisp or snowy one.

For me it’s the rain that really makes things depressing for long periods of time.

So a cold summer is not always a bad thing?

[Don]

2 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

I don’t know why a mild winter is always a bad thing. A dry mild one would be ok, if we can’t have a cold crisp or snowy one.

For me it’s the rain that really makes things depressing for long periods of time.

That's like me saying I don't know why a cool summer is always a bad thing!

2 hours ago, RJBingham said:

I've always liked the GFS  

You midies get your way 9 times out of 10, so no surprise! 

2 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

1991-92 Springs to mind here 

Borefest!!

[Don]

8 hours ago, SunnyG said:

Won't happen. This winter will be mild to very mild.  The bets are in

Yep, I think you'll be tucking into your Christmas dinner in the garden this year!! 

[Coldilocks]

3 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

I don’t know why a mild winter is always a bad thing.

Most of our winters have been mild and it always leads to the worst types of weather. It's either 13c and cloudy or very wet and windy.

[Sunny76]

2 hours ago, markyo said:

So a cold summer is not always a bad thing?

A cold summer is a bad thing after a chilly winter and spring. 

[Sunny76]

11 minutes ago, Coldilocks said:

Most of our winters have been mild and it always leads to the worst types of weather. It's either 13c and cloudy or very wet and windy.

Most of our winters have always been mild. It’s a default set up with the Atlantic to the west, and being surrounded by the North Sea and English Channel.

We probably will see some cold weather at some point.

57 minutes ago, Don said:

That's like me saying I don't know why a cool summer is always a bad thing!

You midies get your way 9 times out of 10, so no surprise! 

Borefest!!

A good chunk of you were saying how this summer has been acceptable and ‘a proper English summer’. 
 

I prefer a cold crisp season, but if it ends up mild, I would like it to be dry.

[Don]

38 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

A good chunk of you were saying how this summer has been acceptable and ‘a proper English summer’. 
 

I prefer a cold crisp season, but if it ends up mild, I would like it to be dry.

I didn't think summer was great, apart from June.  I would prefer mild and dry in winter to mild and wet, but wouldn't want either.

Coldies get plenty of stick during mild winters when they complain about the lack of cold and more so than people who moan about poor weather during the summer I would say!

[Cheshire Freeze]

6 minutes ago, Don said:

I didn't think summer was great, apart from June.  I would prefer mild and dry in winter to mild and wet, but wouldn't want either.

Coldies get plenty of stick during mild winters when they complain about the lack of cold and more so than people who moan about poor weather during the summer I would say!

Give me the winter equivalent of the June we had here and I'd be a happy man. Would basically be a December 2010. 

[lassie23]

I'm waiting to see how the October Fog Index goes, screw the weather models