Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts

[summer blizzard]

4 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

As far as historical analogues go, right now there are around an equal number of (I should note, non-seasonal forecast; I'm talking about personal 'gut feelings') things pointing in the directions of 2009 and 2015 so far. This of course would be expected from a hybrid of those two years: -QBO and Super Nino, respectively. Right now, it could go in either one of those directions, or maybe even both (one month is a January 2010, the other is a December 2015 in no particular order), or perhaps neither and we'll see something entirely different. As others have pointed out, there really isn't much of a historical analogue for the situation we find ourselves in. We're in uncharted territory, and the seasonals are going to reflect that at this stage, as are many of the gut feelings.

Yeah. I basically have (Jan-March) 73, 87, 10, 15 and 19 as my preferred set for QBO, PDO and ONI. It's a mixed outcome.

[daz_4]

3 hours ago, jules216 said:

Thing that its often overlooked is that 2015/16 was going rather nicely, nearly whole of January until 26th was cold only that stupid minor SSW re-shuffled the very promising acumulated cold. Again undone by badly timed SSW, like 1987,2002,2009,2021 etc. All of these occasions SSW did more harm then good for us in central Europe as it shifts the cold away to North and West Europe. We need no SSW and just below average zonal winds just like 2016/17 and -EA pattern not -NAO which does often more bad then good, the closer you go to central Europe from west.

Don't really agree with regards to 15/16. I guess it was better in your neck of the woods as I know your location can hold onto the cold much longer. December 15 was extremely warm, almost 5C above normal, January had two wintry weeks but very little snow and overall not really cold at all. February was 4C above normal. 

Edited August 22, 2023 by daz_4

[cheeky_monkey]

tis amusing that on Aug 22nd this thread is now longer than the Autumn one 

[SqueakheartLW]

3 hours ago, jules216 said:

Thing that its often overlooked is that 2015/16 was going rather nicely, nearly whole of January until 26th was cold only that stupid minor SSW re-shuffled the very promising acumulated cold. Again undone by badly timed SSW, like 1987,2002,2009,2021 etc. All of these occasions SSW did more harm then good for us in central Europe as it shifts the cold away to North and West Europe. We need no SSW and just below average zonal winds just like 2016/17 and -EA pattern not -NAO which does often more bad then good, the closer you go to central Europe from west.

Not very often we can get a good pattern for cold for basically the whole of Europe but I would say a Scandi high linking up with a Greeny high and troughing through the Med all the way from Iberia to Greece is the jackpot pattern but is quite uncommon.

Usual thing is either:

1. Default +NAO pattern that makes most of Europe mild but maybe further east can still be cold depending on the location of the dreaded Euro high.
2. -NAO pattern which tends to favour western Europe and can often set up Euro trough that makes eastern Europe mild.
3. Sceuro high that is good for eastern Europe cold but is bad for us in western Europe with mild southerlies.

 

Edited August 22, 2023 by SqueakheartLW

[jules216]

1 hour ago, daz_4 said:

Don't really agree with regards to 15/16. I guess it was better in your neck of the woods as I know your location can hold onto the cold much longer. December 15 was extremely warm, almost 5C above normal, January had two wintry weeks but very little snow and overall not really cold at all. February was 4C above normal. 

I know but the opposite happened in 2020/21 where you got a great winter and here we took the scraps in February. Used to be much better here in Eastern Slovakia in past, we were more often under cold from the East. Since these frequent Minor SSW appear the cold just escapes from All directions yet we have increased rainfall episodes under +4°C. 

[Metwatch]

My preliminary winter 2023-24 forecast:

There will be a lot of rain. There will be some frosts. There will be some snow, but northern and elevated areas favoured. A few wind storms in the mix, most likely earlier in the winter.

Next update will be some point in October.

[SqueakheartLW]

00z CFS 9 monthly run

Some nice charts here from an extended cold spell from late January 2024 to mid February 2024 on CFS 00z 9 monthly run today

06z CFS 9 monthly run

Merry Christmas 2023 everyone

12z CFS 9 monthly run

 

A nice March wintry surprise

18z CFS 9 monthly run

[Dancerwithwings]

3 hours ago, Metwatch said:

My preliminary winter 2023-24 forecast:

There will be a lot of rain. There will be some frosts. There will be some snow, but northern and elevated areas favoured. A few wind storms in the mix, most likely earlier in the winter.

Next update will be some point in October.

A defo sit on the fence MO forecast, be careful they maybe knocking your door, in asking you, do you fancy a job

[CryoraptorA303]

1 hour ago, SqueakheartLW said:

00z CFS 9 monthly run

Some nice charts here from an extended cold spell from late January 2024 to mid February 2024 on CFS 00z 9 monthly run today

06z CFS 9 monthly run

Merry Christmas 2023 everyone

12z CFS 9 monthly run

 

A nice March wintry surprise

18z CFS 9 monthly run

So how much do I have to pay the weather gods to make this happen?

[Don]

55 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

So how much do I have to pay the weather gods to make this happen?

You don't 'pay' them anything, you pray to them!! 

[Dancerwithwings]

15 minutes ago, Don said:

You don't 'pay' them anything, you pray to them!! 

So that’s the reason why my knees are knackered

[Don]

48 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

So that’s the reason why my knees are knackered

Yip!   

[Cheshire Freeze]

This would be decent for Christmas...very seasonal

Followed by an absolute snow machine for New Years

It remains cold well into the new year

This is what I'm seeing with the CFS at the moment. It's flitting between a Dec 09-Jan10 scenario and an 87/88. I believe the stakes to be really high this year as we're facing two scenarios...winter proper or a horror show. A proper dichotomy.

[HafrenLMP1]

I actually preferred Dec 09/Jan 10 to the following year......so I'd gladly take that now. 87/88 I certainly wouldn't....and Christmas Day was nigh on warm.....

[Weather-history]

Analogues, teleconnections, SSTs etc, forecasts and analysis this far out is interesting but that’s about it for me.

For instance, how many summer forecasts saw that July coming? 

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

Analogues, teleconnections, SSTs etc, forecasts and analysis this far out is interesting but that’s about it for me.

For instance, how many summer forecasts saw that July coming? 

Zero is the answer.

It wasn't until we were already into Summer that the models started picking up on the dross.

[Bristawl Si]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Zero is the answer.

It wasn't until we were already into Summer that the models started picking up on the dross.

Exactly.

We're due a wet, mild, stormy Winter, just as much as a cold, snowy one. 

Place yer bets.

5 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Analogues, teleconnections, SSTs etc, forecasts and analysis this far out is interesting but that’s about it for me.

For instance, how many summer forecasts saw that July coming? 

Agreed

[Beanz]

23 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

tis amusing that on Aug 22nd this thread is now longer than the Autumn one 

I’d love to know how the volume of traffic changes with the seasons on Netweather

[SqueakheartLW]

5 hours ago, HafrenLMP1 said:

I actually preferred Dec 09/Jan 10 to the following year......so I'd gladly take that now. 87/88 I certainly wouldn't....and Christmas Day was nigh on warm.....

The ideal cold winter based on years from 2008 onwards for me would be as follows:

Nov 24th to 30th 2010 - Obvious reasons here

Dec 1st to 6th 2010 - As above

Dec 7th to 10th 2017 - A nice short cold snap with a little snow

Dec 11th to 15th 2022 - Really liked the most severe part of this cold spell

Dec 16th to 25th 2010 - The extreme cold of this period wins it for me

Dec 26th to 31st 2009 - Not a lot to choose from here to end December but it was between 2009 and 2020

Jan 1st to 12th 2010 - An obvious choice here due to the cold and snow 

Jan 13th to 21st 2013 - Probably the best cold and snowy period between 2008 and 2023 for this middle part of January

Jan 22nd to 31st 2015 - No decent cold snap or spell that I can recall for late January between 2008 and 2023. Either 2015 or 2019 here and as I got more snow in 2015 than 2019 I picked that one

Feb 1st to 14th 2009 - The easy pick for me. The best first half of February cold spell of them all. Several snow events too.

Feb 15th to 25th 2013 - Nothing decent that I can recall between these dates for cold and snow but 2013 for me was probably the coldest for this period between 2008 and 2023

Feb 26th to 28th 2018 - Couldn't miss out the famous beast from the east 2018 here. An easy number 1 choice to end February.

For March for me we have 1st to 3rd 2018 as well as 17th to 19th 2018. Also 20th to 23rd 2008 or 22nd to 31st 2013 as picks too.

[SqueakheartLW]

17 hours ago, CreweCold said:

This would be decent for Christmas...very seasonal

Followed by an absolute snow machine for New Years

It remains cold well into the new year

This is what I'm seeing with the CFS at the moment. It's flitting between a Dec 09-Jan10 scenario and an 87/88. I believe the stakes to be really high this year as we're facing two scenarios...winter proper or a horror show. A proper dichotomy.

Both are El Nino winters and both in the ascending part of their respective solar cycles but very different in how they turned out.

Guess what the major difference is between those 2 winters

• Winter 1987/88 was a WQBO winter
• Winter 2009/10 was an EQBO winter

Personally based on this and the fact winter 2023/24 looks like it will be EQBO then as a coldie I'd hope this will favour the more 2009/10 solutions the CFS keeps throwing into its output over the 1987/88 but then knowing our luck the 1987/88 lot will verify in the end.

[Metwatch]

5 hours ago, Beanz said:

I’d love to know how the volume of traffic changes with the seasons on Netweather

I think winter / late autumn is more active unless in summer there is the odd day where widespread strong thunderstorms are expected, but that is quite rare in recent years.

Apparantly the most that were online was on some day in April 2021, but I don't remember there being anything special weather wise back then unless someone can point out.

[damianslaw]

Monitoring activity levels, the busiest days tend to be just before a snow event. Late November and much of December often feels the busiest time, but I'd suspect January is the busiest month - depths of winter, when people have more spare time indoors. 

Edited August 23, 2023 by damianslaw

[Cheshire Freeze]

If only last December had been a harbinger of a better winter overall.

I remember my brother picking me up from work, -8 showing on the car thermometer at 11pm.

There’s nothing like pre Christmas December cold IMO. If I could pick one month to feature severe cold weather it’d be December every time with its absolute minimal solar input.

Edited August 23, 2023 by CreweCold

[Frigid]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

If only last December had been a harbinger of a better winter overall.

I remember my brother picking me up from work, -8 showing on the car thermometer at 11pm.

There’s nothing like pre Christmas December cold IMO. If I could pick one month to feature severe cold weather it’d be December every time with its absolute minimal solar input.

-11C was showing for me on the morning of the 15th, took a good half an hr for the car to defrost and warm up. 

A truly spectacular winter's day, akin to those mornings in Dec 2010. Blue skies and a deep, thick frost. I know it's unlikely but I hope to see more this upcoming winter. 

[SqueakheartLW]

9 minutes ago, Frigid said:

-11C was showing for me on the morning of the 15th, took a good half an hr for the car to defrost and warm up. 

A truly spectacular winter's day, akin to those mornings in Dec 2010. Blue skies and a deep, thick frost. I know it's unlikely but I hope to see more this upcoming winter. 

If only that cold could have hung on till at least Christmas Day. That would have made December 2022 more memorable and would have put it in the sub 1C CET club and if it had clung on to the end of the year 2010 and 1890 could have been under threat. Also we wouldn't have got the 11C CET year either.