Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts

[Cheshire Freeze]

9 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

What a good early start to the winter discussion with those blocked looking charts.

One crucial thing I have noticed on all of them which is absent this time on long range model output which has been a default certain addition before now is .....

 

 

NO NE PACIFIC RIDGE

 

 

Maybe puts us more in the game this time with the NE Pacific trough this time around.

I was thinking the same thing. That ridge really has been a thorn in our side over recent years.

[sundog]

9 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

I think a mild winter would be welcome this year.

Lots of days around 13-15c and sunshine. Would make up for the poor summer.

So you want to have a yr without  much of a summer or winter? 

[virtualsphere]

Some interesting charts already showing on this thread.  Worth bearing in mind where we are in the solar cycle if we do get some northern blocking as the seasonals suggest.  Solar max doesn't necessarily inhibit a cold winter spell but looking through the archives it does seem to sometimes be associated with more 'active' cold weather - think 1940, 1947, 1968/69, 1979, Feb 1991, Jan 2013 - rather than the persistently cold and dry blocking of say 2009/10, 1995/96, Feb 1986, 1963 or even early Jan 2021.   A lot of those years were closer to ENSO neutral though.  As mentioned in another thread, a 1968/69 setup might be worth a punt although I'm a bit wary of those Nino forecasts getting too strong.  

[Cheshire Freeze]

26 minutes ago, virtualsphere said:

Some interesting charts already showing on this thread.  Worth bearing in mind where we are in the solar cycle if we do get some northern blocking as the seasonals suggest.  Solar max doesn't necessarily inhibit a cold winter spell but looking through the archives it does seem to sometimes be associated with more 'active' cold weather - think 1940, 1947, 1968/69, 1979, Feb 1991, Jan 2013 - rather than the persistently cold and dry blocking of say 2009/10, 1995/96, Feb 1986, 1963 or even early Jan 2021.   A lot of those years were closer to ENSO neutral though.  As mentioned in another thread, a 1968/69 setup might be worth a punt although I'm a bit wary of those Nino forecasts getting too strong.  

I have a feeling that the modelling may be sniffing a stratospheric vortex that may play ball this year. The issue we have is that we have no analogue years featuring a super Nino and an early warming of the strat. The results of this combo could really be spectacular in terms of winter for the UK.

There's something going on in the seasonals that goes beyond merely displaying a typical El Nino set up via historic analogues.

It's a bit of a wild card. We're potentially going into this coming winter flying blind with a very rare set up that we just don't have much historic data on analogue wise. Expect almost anything.

Edited August 10, 2023 by CreweCold

[Don]

2 hours ago, sundog said:

So you want to have a yr without  much of a summer or winter? 

Exactly, what a crap year of weather that would be!

[Don]

4 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

NO NE PACIFIC RIDGE

With the current very warm SST's in that region, I wonder if the models are predicting a cooling through autumn as it's normally the warm SST's that promotes high pressure?

[Chesil View]

It's certainly an interesting start to the winter watching season with  plenty of the seasonals and monthly outlook suggesting interesting synoptic set ups. A long way to go yet though, with no real  conclusions being able to be drawn until mid November at the earliest.  Having said that if the models are in the same ball park or have firmed up even more on their present predictions between now and mid November then we could be looking at game on for something genuinely interesting.     Keep your fingers crossed winter lovers.  It would be typical of the capricious nature of weather that after endless weeks of the media describing how the world is burning that come winter they are reporting on the thick white blanket of snow and exceptionally cold temperatures that have settled in across Europe.

[Cheshire Freeze]

CFS has gone all super nino analogue on us

[Chesil View]

3 hours ago, CreweCold said:

CFS has gone all super nino analogue on us

Pretty much out on its own with this though Crewe.

[Hotspur62]

4 hours ago, CreweCold said:

CFS has gone all super nino analogue on us

Let’s hope that is way off the mark as from a cold perspective for the U.K. it looks dreadful.Interesting how it keeps low pressure in NE Pacific though

[RJBingham]

5 hours ago, CreweCold said:

CFS has gone all super nino analogue on us

sniffing the nino coffee.

[Weather-history]

On 10/08/2023 at 11:01, Sunny76 said:

I think a mild winter would be welcome this year.

Lots of days around 13-15c and sunshine. Would make up for the poor summer.

Is it a poor summer?  July was poor but June wasn't, depends on what August delivers but it is definitely not in the 2012 category of poorness.

 

[Mike Poole]

8 hours ago, CreweCold said:

CFS has gone all super nino analogue on us

Yes, just to keep us honest!

One cannot really expect total cross model agreement for winter in August!  CFS seems to be the odd one out though, with a blocked pattern the early favourite.

A long way to go yet.  I’m sure there will be twists and turns in the modelling, but if a pattern like the GloSea6 one prevails and is being shown by the models in their November update, then winter 2023/24 could be a memorable one.  

[Liam Burge]

Looks like we could experience a Super El Nino this winter, wonder what that will mean for our cold chances!

BOM has it peaking at 2.9c, and ECMWF is just off the charts with some of it's ensembles getting close to +3.5c above average.

[Bristawl Si]

I'd love a mild, dry Winter. I used to love the cold and snow, but not really bothered anymore. 

[Uncertainty]

@Tamara regarding Aaron’s September theory - There is a really strong correlation between the warm Septembers and +nao in the following winterTamara. Whether it is anything other than a statistical oddity is another matter, though I suspect you are right and it is a red herring. Nevertheless, I still find myself oddly hoping for chilly winds and rain during that month! 

 

I’m more concerned about the potential for a super east based Nino aligning with high solar - despite the intense -nao musings of the Copernicus seasonals. Though it has to be said, those anomalies have been generated in line with their Nino projections so it’s not like the don’t ‘know’ about it. If the Nino ends up at least moderate (I can’t see it becoming modoki) then we can’t ignore the possibility that the seasonals are sniffing something sincere.

You are also right about the SSTs throwing everything into disarray- it makes predicting anything at the moment even harder.

[SqueakheartLW]

If models are correct with both a Super Nino and the northern blocking it will be of interest to see how this interacts with the EQBO.

As we have no historical events with both Super Nino and EQBO together (1982, 1997 and 2015 all WQBO leading up to the winters) then we don't know how this will play out.

As for the polar vortex in Super Nino winters we have a whole mixture. 1997/98 was a weaker vortex with no SSW but 2015/16 was a monster polar vortex of doom until the biggest and earliest final warming on record for March 2016.

Could the EQBO result in a much earlier SSW and a much better chance of a colder more blocked winter which is showing up in the models for the most part.

As for the CFS I'd say this is

 

C omplete

F abricated

S ***

 

Therefore one for the bin.

[Don]

4 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

As for the CFS I'd say this is

 

C omplete

F abricated

S ***

 

Therefore one for the bin.

That's an absolute shocker of a chart and a real mild winter lovers dream!! 

Edited August 12, 2023 by Don

[Bullseye]

Following on from the recent ECMWF DJF forecast, the follow up shows the strat during December - February running slightly weaker than average. 

 

[Bullseye]

On 10/08/2023 at 21:27, CreweCold said:

I have a feeling that the modelling may be sniffing a stratospheric vortex that may play ball this year. The issue we have is that we have no analogue years featuring a super Nino and an early warming of the strat. The results of this combo could really be spectacular in terms of winter for the UK.

There's something going on in the seasonals that goes beyond merely displaying a typical El Nino set up via historic analogues.

It's a bit of a wild card. We're potentially going into this coming winter flying blind with a very rare set up that we just don't have much historic data on analogue wise. Expect almost anything.

I think this is a very good point to make, as studies also show that the EQBO combined with a either Solar min or Solar max tends to show greatest risk of early strat warming. We know for sure that we have EQBO for this winter and that leaves the question if this year would fall into the solar "max" category - solar max provides us with greatest chance of negative NAO

[Dancerwithwings]

Big snow of 82 , is on 5 select tv channel right now

Edited August 12, 2023 by Dancerwithwings

[Dancerwithwings]

This was the year that started my interest in weather and me turning into a coldie 

I wasn’t even in my teens then

[MP-R]

11 hours ago, Bristle Si said:

I'd love a mild, dry Winter. I used to love the cold and snow, but not really bothered anymore. 

Me too to a degree, but with emphasis on the dry bit. Mild and dry is easier than cold and dry, but so often mild = wet, and I hate wet! So if not mild and dry, then I'm still in the coldie camp and like long frosty, sunny spells as much as the excitement of snow.

[Don]

11 hours ago, Bristle Si said:

I'd love a mild, dry Winter. I used to love the cold and snow, but not really bothered anymore. 

I wish I could say the same for me as it would save so much disappointment.  However, no chance and if anything I'm worse for it now than when I was a kid!!

[RJBingham]

On 12/08/2023 at 03:19, CreweCold said:

CFS has gone all super nino analogue on us

Well that's calmed the thread down a bit