Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts

[Sunny76]

2 hours ago, Bobd29 said:

Can’t let this go as a confirmed Christmas lover. 15C would be awful I’m going for a 4C max Xmas day which will already have 6inches of level snow on the ground…with more to come.

Mate, it’s going to be a mild Christmas period. Last Christmas was slightly milder, but it still felt seasonal off the back of a few very cold weeks. 
 

This year it’s going to be a 97 or 2015 situation. 
 

 

[MP-R]

Good to see some interesting synoptics on the 'just for fun' model:

    

  

A winter of interest and an early spring to make up for this year would be great.

[stainesbloke]

2 hours ago, Bobd29 said:

Can’t let this go as a confirmed Christmas lover. 15C would be awful I’m going for a 4C max Xmas day which will already have 6inches of level snow on the ground…with more to come.

Love Christmas too but if there’s snow already on the ground then below freezing temperatures would be best, otherwise it’d be a vile slush-fest. 

[Dancerwithwings]

6 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Mate, it’s going to be a mild Christmas period. Last Christmas was slightly milder, but it still felt seasonal off the back of a few very cold weeks. 
 

This year it’s going to be a 97 or 2015 situation. 
 

 

Come on, give the CFS a chance… he he

[MATTWOLVES 3]

17 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Mate, it’s going to be a mild Christmas period. Last Christmas was slightly milder, but it still felt seasonal off the back of a few very cold weeks. 
 

This year it’s going to be a 97 or 2015 situation. 
 

 

Mate there is know forecasting tools available out there that can make you call out how the weather will be in 4 months time! Your just 2nd guessing how things will play out and the fact that the law of averages means it more likely to be milder than colder! So there is no point in any of us coming back to congratulate you in February if you got it correct. 

Also to complile a forecast based on setting the bar really low to avoid disappointment is ridiculous. If the long range models point to colder than average right now...they may be wrong....if the models point to warmer than average,they may also be wrong!

Ask any pro forecaster what the weather is gonna be like in 2 or so weeks and they will tell you its a little to far out to be sure! So to say temps are not gonna drop below 10c 4 months from now,with this pattern continuing for the next 3 months is pure jackanory!

Edited August 7, 2023 by MATTWOLVES 3

[Nick L]

21 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Mate there is know forecasting tools available out there that can make you call out how the weather will be in 4 months time! Your just 2nd guessing how things will play out and the fact that the law of averages means it more likely to be milder than colder! So there is no point in any of us coming back to congratulate you in February if you got it correct. 

Also to complile a forecast based on setting the bar really low to avoid disappointment is ridiculous. If the long range models point to colder than average right now...they may be wrong....if the models point to warmer than average,they may also be wrong!

Ask any pro forecaster what the weather is gonna be like in 2 or so weeks and they will tell you its a little to far out to be sure! So to say temps are not gonna drop below 10c 4 months from now,with this pattern continuing for the next 3 months is pure jackanory!

Well said. Ridiculous and unfounded predictions.

[Blessed Weather]

A teleconnection that's worth having on-side if your preference is a colder winter is the QBO. This is forecast to be in the negative phase (easterly zonal winds over the equator at 30hPa) for the coming winter 2023/24. Here's the latest QBO analysis from NASA showing the easterlies descending through the atmosphere with weak easterlies now at 30hPa and these will strengthen as we move into winter:

Source: https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/qbo.html#intro

And zooming in, here's the monthly data for 2023 to July (in table format) showing the trend to negative:

Source: https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/QBO_Singapore_Uvals_GSFC.txt

Here's what the Met Office say about the importance of which phase:

Why is the QBO important?

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation can affect the Atlantic jet stream. The speed of the winds in the jet stream weaken and strengthen with the direction of the QBO. The jet stream is an important atmospheric feature that brings us our weather here in the UK, and the risk of winter conditions in Northern Europe can differ depending on the phase of the QBO:

• When the QBO is easterly, the chance of a weak jet stream, sudden stratospheric warming events and colder winters in Northern Europe is increased.
• When the QBO is westerly, the chance of a strong jet, a mild winter, winter storms and heavy rainfall increases.

Source: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/atmosphere/quasi-biennial-oscillation

[Azazel]

I would prefer a front-loaded winter with snow/cold in the lead up to Xmas, but I know that's super uncommon. I think in 2012 we had snow in December but milder air moved in just in time for Christmas - I could be misremembering though.

[Sunny76]

4 minutes ago, Azazel said:

I would prefer a front-loaded winter with snow/cold in the lead up to Xmas, but I know that's super uncommon. I think in 2012 we had snow in December but milder air moved in just in time for Christmas - I could be misremembering though.

Yes, it was cold early in December, but turned milder for Christmas. I remember waking up around 7am on Christmas morning and heard rumbles of thunder. The cold came back as we moved into the new year, and early 2013 was very cold at times.

1 hour ago, Nick L said:

Well said. Ridiculous and unfounded predictions.

Won’t as ridiculous if they come to pass though. 

[Nick L]

8 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

 

Won’t as ridiculous if they come to pass though. 

Predicting that we won't have temperatures below 10C is both ridiculous and not going to happen. No different to someone marching into the summer thread before the season starts and predicts we won't have any days above 20C.

Edited August 7, 2023 by Nick L

[northwestsnow]

Two potential flies in the ointment that stand out

IOD

STRONG nino

[stainesbloke]

I’m predicting a stormy December, continuing into early January but then a switch to very cold and snowy for mid-late January. A mainly settled, cold and sunny February 

[NEVES SCREAMER]

Hoping for a repeat of the iconic winter of 88/89. It was everything I could hope for in a winter. 

[Don]

1 hour ago, stainesbloke said:

I’m predicting a stormy December, continuing into early January but then a switch to very cold and snowy for mid-late January. A mainly settled, cold and sunny February 

No complaints from me if that comes off!

[Don]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Two potential flies in the ointment that stand out

IOD

STRONG nino

Yes, although apparently as long as the IOD is not super positive (as in 2019) it shouldn't be too much of a hindrance?

The potential strong El Nino is definitely a fly in the ointment though.

Edited August 7, 2023 by Don

[B87]

My prediction for here:

Av max/av min, rainfall, sun hours

Dec 2023: 10c/4c, 60mm, 55 hrs

Jan 2024: 9c/2c, 30mm, 80 hrs

Feb 2024: 12c/3c, 10mm, 140 hrs

[stainesbloke]

16 minutes ago, Don said:

No complaints from me if that comes off!

Does feel like it’ll be a more interesting winter with lots of different weather types. Hopefully not just an Atlantic barrage 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Yes, although apparently as long as the IOD is not super positive (as in 2019) it shouldn't be too much of a hindrance?

The potential strong El Nino is definitely a fly in the ointment though.

I agree with @northwestsnowon this one to be honest, it could put a right dent in our chances of a cold winter.   

[Don]

23 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

I agree with @northwestsnowon this one to be honest, it could put a right dent in our chances of a cold winter.   

There is always something to put a 'big dent' in our chances of a cold winter these days!!  If it's not ENSO, PDO, QBO, solar activity, IOD and goodness knows what else, it's climate change!!

[lassie23]

I'm going to use a non-technical way of predicting the weather,  I'm going by my hazelnut tree. Whenever the hazelnuts are ready early, winter is mild with only one or two cold snaps, when they are ready to eat late, we get a cold winter with some decent snowfall. This year my nuts are late, so it is looking good. So the August Nut Index says yes to snow, all we need now is the October Fog Index to come on board this autumn.

[northwestsnow]

52 minutes ago, Don said:

There is always something to put a 'big dent' in our chances of a cold winter these days!!  If it's not ENSO, PDO, QBO, solar activity, IOD and goodness knows what else, it's climate change!!

This is true.

Perhaps it's easier to  just say winters are getting milder.

Lowland snow in England is getting rarer.

That said, given the right synoptics we can still pull off cold spells..

[January Snowstorm]

Considering all factors including GW, I think future cold Winters are going to be very rare indeed. We may never see the likes of 2010 again and worth noting that '10 was extreme going by the previous 40 years!!

Having said all of that the early trends are good!

[Mike Poole]

Thanks for starting this thread, @Blessed Weather , there does already seem to be plenty to discuss regarding the coming winter, so good to have it all in one place.

I am looking forward to the coming winter with the usual trepidation, but this year with a tinge of anticipation as well.  I will try to explain why.

First, the state of play re some key drivers going into winter:

• ENSO - El Niño, but uncertain as to how strong, uncertain as to whether East Pacific (EP) or Central Pacific (CP) aka Modoki.  Perceived wisdom would suggest we don’t want it too strong, otherwise we can work with it.  CP preferred.
• QBO - easterly.  Nailed on.  This is a big one, and we’ve been short changed by it in recent years with a seeming tendency for easterly QBO’s to go awry.  This one hasn’t.  Big plus.
• Solar activity, close to maximum - probably slight minus.
• Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) - likely positive, possible spoiler if gets so far positive it overrides everything else like 2019 - I’ll come back to this.
• Wild cards - more than you can shake a stick at. 

I’ll start with the wild cards.  The weather, globally, is currently all over the place.  For example, there’s the Tonga volcano having ejecting copious amounts of water vapour into the stratosphere.  There’s climate change, obviously, but this year is just off on one.  Take SSTs, I didn’t mention them in the list above because I don’t know what to make of them.  Look at this graph:

Not just record warm, but the whole evolution this year is a massive outlier compared to all previous years.  So we currently have this SST anomaly:

Cooler now SW of the UK after the June spike, much warmer near Canada, as far as the Atlantic is concerned.  I am not sure what kind of winter this pattern might equate to.  Where I’m going with this is that I don’t think the perceived wisdom about what translates to what applies this year, and pattern matching to previous years won’t help either.  All bets are off.  

Which is why I think watching the models as we approach winter this year will be paramount.  As I sometimes comment in the MOD, the seasonal models are not programmed with any knowledge of past patterns, they simply start with a best estimate of the current T0 conditions of the atmosphere and oceans, and simulate the laws of physics on from there, right out to 9 months in the case of the CFS.  (Caveat, some AI models are trained on the past, I believe).  So if we are working blind this near, the models may not be.  

Given the UK default is mild, mild and more mild (especially in recent years), the massive unknowns this year have to shift the probability dial in favour of UK cold chances.  Has to!  Because it just couldn’t really shift it in the other direction.  There is already evidence over summer of northern blocking, and stuck patterns.  No reason per se why this should carry on into winter, but at the moment the models are starting to suggest that it will.  

Worth noting that if we get zonal, UK=mild.  If we get blocked, UK=cold or mild, dependent on where blocking is placed.  So no guarantees if we get a blocked set up, there are guarantees if we don’t - it is mild.  

What’s appearing on the seasonal models is very promising, e.g. ECM seasonal pressure anomaly for January:

Similar to the CANSIPS model, and the previous July runs of most of the models looked blocked.  The August update of the rest is due in a week or so.  

We have tickets to the raffle this year, at the moment.

The main threat as I see it, that could take all those tickets away, is the IOD.  Current model estimates for the peak in October:

As I understand it, this would have to be 2019 standards to be the overriding factor (it was over +2.0 then).  You can see that the ECM is edging that way (not sure if this is the same run as the blocked January chart, it’s an obvious question to ask).  The other models are more moderate.  I will be watching this carefully, we don’t want another 2019.  El Niño also needs watching.

But, my overall take, is watch the models.  Something is off this year, will the positive signal for blocking on the models continue, or will it vanish into thin air, as we approach December?  I am prepared to expect the unexpected this year, and actually wonder if an early season SSW might be on the cards (to explain the current model output).

We will see…

All the best, Mike

 

Edited August 7, 2023 by Mike Poole

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

I'm going to use a non-technical way of predicting the weather,  I'm going by my hazelnut tree. Whenever the hazelnuts are ready early, winter is mild with only one or two cold snaps, when they are ready to eat late, we get a cold winter with some decent snowfall. This year my nuts are late, so it is looking good. So the August Nut Index says yes to snow, all we need now is the October Fog Index to come on board this autumn.

The nut theory? 
 

Hmm, if there’s no snow by February, I will personally blame you

[lassie23]

2 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

The nut theory? 
 

Hmm, if there’s no snow by February, I will personally blame you

lol i'll see how the October Fog Index goes