Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts

[Windysun1]

i would'nt give up hope for January;) phases 8-1 in early January too...all speculation but certainly positive.

1 hour ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

Not that I'd be complaining if we get a very cold February-March period, but it will have been the eleventh January without anything major. Surely January can't be missed out again this time. Maybe more towards the second half of the month but I can't shake the gut feeling of a significant January cold snap coming.

Having said that, a bunch of WAIs coming up lately were February-centric cold winters with archetypal late winter Scandi highs. So maybe there's some credence to be had.

 

Edited December 2, 2023 by Windysun1

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Windysun1 said:

i would'nt give up hope for January;)

 

That’s Decembers chart ?  And we’d like the low anoms to be a few hundred miles south to give us some insurance. I agree it looks like a more than interesting monthly average though. yetserdays output certainly raised the ante on the frigid air to out ne 

[Mike Poole]

45 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Can you check out the mslp anoms on that site Mike ?

weatherbell has a less strong anom take on its charts and certainly doesn't see a surface high anom over Greenland for feb and instead has one over scandi. I’m wondering if weatherbell charts are wrong 

Here you are, looks as you say:

Edited December 2, 2023 by Mike Poole

[sebastiaan1973]

And while a technical SSW is difficult to forecast with precision at extended leads, the expectation based on the composite analogs remains that one will indeed take place between approximately Christmas and January 8, along with a major winter storm in the vicinity of the holiday week. This impending disruption of the polar vortex is not only significant due to the sensible implications for later December and into January, but also the balance of the winter season given the unexpected prevalence of the negative NAO through the early portion of December. Having the NAO average negative prior to the vortex even weakening makes it extremely likely that December will end up featuring a negative NAO in the monthly mean. This represents a significant deviation from warm ENSO climatology and offers invaluable as to how the rest of the season may evolve. Research conducted by meteorologist Eric Webber confirmed that El Niño events that feature a greater incidence of negative NAO in December are more likely to exhibit additional episodes of high latitude blocking, leading to a colder and snowier outcome for January through March over the Eastern US.

 A nice read -> https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/11/december-preseason-impressions-appear.html

 

And the Tweet where he writes about:

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1728115422648562170?s=20

[Kasim Awan]

For me confidence is growing for a colder incursion 11th-14th December. It's on the GFS, GEM and JMA.

[CryoraptorA303]

16 hours ago, Kasim Awan said:

For me confidence is growing for a colder incursion 11th-14th December. It's on the GFS, GEM and JMA.

Just as I suspected, westerlies trying to establish but repeated cold telling them where to go. By mid-January we'll have a memorable cold spell, I can feel it.

[Daniel*]

On 29/11/2023 at 17:34, johncam said:

Thanks Daniel,  very interesting. Do think though that Scottish Ski resorts won't get going until cold returns hopefully as little or no snow at the moment. 

Thanks John forgot to reply. Seems likes it’s been a good start with a good base already?

Cairngorm (4 hours ago) 

[johncam]

1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

Thanks John forgot to reply. Seems likes it’s been a good start with a good base already?

Cairngorm (4 hours ago) 

Nice,  hopefully,  can get a base going through the milder spell 

[bluearmy]

Ec seasonal update due out today 

 

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Ec seasonal update due out today 

 

It’s out 

Heights and slp

Jan: sceuro low anom (enveloping U.K.) and mid Atlantic high anom 

feb: general high anomoly north of U.K. (scandi across to Greenland and beyond) also including Western Europe though.  Slp is high anom north of U.K. and across scandi to n Canada (strongest griceland). Low anom in Atlantic southerly jet through Azores and into Iberia - low slp anom gradually weakens as it enters Europe but still there 

The three months together (JFMj are available on ec website 

ECMWF | Charts

CHARTS.ECMWF.INT

 

[alexisj9]

On 10/11/2023 at 16:50, Chesil View said:

This is so true Cheshire Freeze.

It is easy to think that if Glosea doesn't show extreme high pressure anomalies to our north and east for the three months or suggest a monumental 63 type winter that all is lost. 

Yet I am always reminded that the outstanding winter event of my life time. The great southwest blizzard of February 1978 that produced drifts as deep as telegraph poles on the south coast of Dorset, occurred with a wedge extention from high pressure over Greenland  with uppers of just minus 2 to minus 5 but perhaps most important of all in a winter ranked 205th for cold out of 360 odd cet winters.

We don't need to have 63 or47 redux to have cold/snow events that pretty much every contributor to this thread would pull your arm off for.

For me the broad picture is shaping rather nicely as we head into the winter season particularly Jan Feb March.

Exactly. 

[alexisj9]

On 10/11/2023 at 17:48, northwestsnow said:

Absolutely want a ssw but absolutely don't want it in mid Feb !

No never again after last year please, was freezing here, but wrong side of for snow, rather like not in fact, till June. Can do with out that.

[Andy8472]

Still going for a big -NAO feb, jan not bad either 

[alexisj9]

On 10/11/2023 at 18:11, LRD said:

Unless I'm reading it wrong, it isn't showing that is it? It's looking like chances of a toasty strat are declining in Feb aren't they?

Apols if I'm reading that wrong. March looks a higher probability of a SSW so that's not great

There alway a final warming, when the pv naturally dies, hopefully that's whats showing for march

[Bullseye]

Glosea updated covering JFM - not sure if already posted. 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/58841-el-nino-2023-2024/page/232/

Cheers

Edited December 11, 2023 by Bullseye

[Don]

2 hours ago, Bullseye said:

Glosea updated covering JFM - not sure if already posted. 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/58841-el-nino-2023-2024/page/232/

Cheers

No too bad and plenty of cold snap potential, although would rather the Atlantic high pressure was centered further north more over Greenland.

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, Bullseye said:

Glosea updated covering JFM - not sure if already posted. 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/58841-el-nino-2023-2024/page/232/

Cheers

Deep scandi trough there, this appears to be the dominant theme for winter proper. There are signs now the PV wants to move east.. but it will be Jan before it does so.

The seasonals seem to have picked up Dec pattern well, low pressure dominated.

[MP-R]

On 01/12/2023 at 22:04, damianslaw said:

2020 brought a cold end to the year lasting into the New Year.

The last notably cold end to the year and start to a New Year was way back in 2009-10. 10-11 was quite cold but nothing signficant. 2008-09 also cold.

We've had far too many mild ends to years and starts of new ones recently. The last 2 years especially so.

The week before christmas has been mild last 12 years!. 

Yes NY 08/09 was very cold. Ice days and mid minus single figures round these parts. 
 

I miss the days when a cold spell was common between Christmas and NY. This was a regular theme in the 2000s but vanished in the 2010s. 2020 was a welcome change even though it was useless in the snow department.

[Met4Cast]

Delete.

Edited December 26, 2023 by Met4Cast

[damianslaw]

On 12/12/2023 at 00:28, MP-R said:

Yes NY 08/09 was very cold. Ice days and mid minus single figures round these parts. 
 

I miss the days when a cold spell was common between Christmas and NY. This was a regular theme in the 2000s but vanished in the 2010s. 2020 was a welcome change even though it was useless in the snow department.

Yes it seemed a common occurance in the 2000s to have at least a spell of colder conditions between christmas and new year, though not in 2002, 2006 or 2007.

Since 2010, with exception on 2014, 2017and 2020 we've endured mild rain and wind. 2023 offers similiar fayre.