Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

What's your latest thoughts on early to mid winter currently, taking this into account?

Fairly mobile right into January. Though i think January will feature some fairly potent polar maritime outbreaks…cold zonality if you like with snowfall for the N, hills and, at times, lower ground in the S.

Take a look at this, this the MEAN of all of the long rangers for March. We’re very very likely to see a major Feb warming of the strat IMO. For a mean it’s as strong of a signal as you can get-

[summer blizzard]

15 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

Seems the signs are pointing towards a Feb SSW to me…however i hope to be wrong and that it happens early Jan instead!

My primary analogues go Jan 9th to Feb 13th. 

Not a bad sign to be honest, mid rather than late winter.

Coldest in Jan and March too.

Edited November 15, 2023 by summer blizzard

[Don]

39 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

2013 was pretty unprecedented in all fairness. A repeat can’t really be expected.

Though i think a strong strat will succumb in spectacular fashion late winter. 

Absolutely, March 2013 was almost up there with the likes of December 2010!  Perhaps something more like 1995 when March was colder than February.  However, I hope we don’t get a winter like that!

[MattStoke]

13 hours ago, username home said:

I see that James Madden from Exacta weather is busy giving the Mirror and Express his usual October/November made up stories.... "600 mile WALL OF SNOW" heading for these shores...

Yay! 

[Don]

9 hours ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

Fairly mobile right into January. Though i think January will feature some fairly potent polar maritime outbreaks…cold zonality if you like with snowfall for the N, hills and, at times, lower ground in the S.

Take a look at this, this the MEAN of all of the long rangers for March. We’re very very likely to see a major Feb warming of the strat IMO. For a mean it’s as strong of a signal as you can get-

Do you feel February might be a transitional month i.e. mobile to start, becoming colder and more blocked mid month onwards?

[MP-R]

11 hours ago, Don said:

I'm sure you would take a repeat if it meant getting a similar summer to follow though?!  

However, like you say, unlikely to get a proper cold March following a mild winter.  I think the closest I remember to this occurring was March 1995?

Can just about forgive the March but April was a drag. August was also disappointing after the first week.

Anyway, back to winter, and hopefully Jan and Feb will be good, a good December being a bonus.

[sebastiaan1973]

An intresting read

Abstract

In Europe, the increase in temperatures caused by climate change has been particularly fast in the cold season. Although the magnitude of this change is relatively well known, less research has been done on how the increase of temperatures is manifested in different large-scale weather types, called weather regimes. For example, one could expect that the weather patterns in which air is flowing from the rapidly-warming Arctic would have warmed faster than other weather patterns in recent decades. Here we show that such an asymmetric warming actually occurs in the four Euro-Atlantic weather regimes. In northern Europe, the weather regime which is typically associated with cold airmasses from the Arctic (NAO–) has warmed about 25% faster than the cold-season days on average, and about 60% faster than the regime where the air flows from the North Atlantic (NAO+). Consequently, the weather regime that on average brings the coldest weather is warming the fastest in a large part of northern Europe. In contrast, the weather regime that typically brings the warmest weather has warmed the slowest, especially in the continental Europe. Our results provide a new perspective on the reported decrease of sub-seasonal temperature variability.  https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asl.1178

[johncam]

59 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

An intresting read

Abstract

In Europe, the increase in temperatures caused by climate change has been particularly fast in the cold season. Although the magnitude of this change is relatively well known, less research has been done on how the increase of temperatures is manifested in different large-scale weather types, called weather regimes. For example, one could expect that the weather patterns in which air is flowing from the rapidly-warming Arctic would have warmed faster than other weather patterns in recent decades. Here we show that such an asymmetric warming actually occurs in the four Euro-Atlantic weather regimes. In northern Europe, the weather regime which is typically associated with cold airmasses from the Arctic (NAO–) has warmed about 25% faster than the cold-season days on average, and about 60% faster than the regime where the air flows from the North Atlantic (NAO+). Consequently, the weather regime that on average brings the coldest weather is warming the fastest in a large part of northern Europe. In contrast, the weather regime that typically brings the warmest weather has warmed the slowest, especially in the continental Europe. Our results provide a new perspective on the reported decrease of sub-seasonal temperature variability.  https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asl.1178

Thanks , very sobering though 

[SqueakheartLW]

I'll take this to open up December

BANK !!!

[damianslaw]

13 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

I'll take this to open up December

BANK !!!

Any snow cold lover would love to open the first advent calandar window with this behind it.

Can only think of 1 Dec 2010 similiar. With exception of 2010, many recent relatively cold starts to Dec, 2008, 2012, 2017 and 2022 imploded around or just after mid month. Im always nervous of early cold in first half of Dec, rarely stays its course in time for christmas, mind cold came christmas 08. On the opposite scale we have the likes of 95, 00 and 09 which started on a mild note, and were cold over christmas, 95 turned cold on the 5th.

2000 and 2009 remain my comparators for December 2023..

[SqueakheartLW]

27 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Any snow cold lover would love to open the first advent calandar window with this behind it.

Can only think of 1 Dec 2010 similiar. With exception of 2010, many recent relatively cold starts to Dec, 2008, 2012, 2017 and 2022 imploded around or just after mid month. Im always nervous of early cold in first half of Dec, rarely stays its course in time for christmas, mind cold came christmas 08. On the opposite scale we have the likes of 95, 00 and 09 which started on a mild note, and were cold over christmas, 95 turned cold on the 5th.

2000 and 2009 remain my comparators for December 2023..

2000 is a good match for position in the solar cycle as well as an odd cycle too and an EQBO winter too. The major difference is ENSO which was La Nina in 2000 compared with El Nino now.

2009 is a better match for ENSO as well as QBO but a poor match for solar cycle position and is in an even cycle as well.

[Dark Horse]

18 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

2000 is a good match for position in the solar cycle as well as an odd cycle too and an EQBO winter too. The major difference is ENSO which was La Nina in 2000 compared with El Nino now.

2009 is a better match for ENSO as well as QBO but a poor match for solar cycle position and is in an even cycle as well.

I wonder if we'll get a similar Winter to 2000-2001 then? that was a half decent one in this area and this Autumn is kinda reminding me of that year but probably not as wet this time round. Been wet enough though!

[cheeky_monkey]

1 hour ago, SqueakheartLW said:

2000 is a good match for position in the solar cycle as well as an odd cycle too and an EQBO winter too. The major difference is ENSO which was La Nina in 2000 compared with El Nino now.

2009 is a better match for ENSO as well as QBO but a poor match for solar cycle position and is in an even cycle as well.

was bored so i picked out some years that IMO were a good match for the ENSO..1957, 1965. 1972, 1991 & 2009..from this none were particularly mild or cold with the exception of 2009 ..if anything all those years winters were on average rather cold overall.

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

was bored so i picked out some years that IMO were a good match for the ENSO..1957, 1965. 1972, 1991 & 2009..from this none were particularly mild or cold with the exception of 2009 ..if anything all those years winters were on average rather cold overall.

2009 last closest match I feel, though I think 1965 possibly overall most closest.

 

[Don]

6 hours ago, johncam said:

Thanks , very sobering though 

Not a particularly nice reading!

[Don]

3 hours ago, Dark Horse said:

I wonder if we'll get a similar Winter to 2000-2001 then? that was a half decent one in this area and this Autumn is kinda reminding me of that year but probably not as wet this time round. Been wet enough though!

I've been thinking that also and Matt Hugo's latest thoughts seem to suggest a December similar to 2000, with a possible Christmas to New Year cold spell.  However, very tentative at this stage.

[baddie]

On 14/11/2023 at 22:38, Don said:

What about spring 2018....

March and April were utter awful outside of the snow in March, and the heatwave in April, though the May was lovely

On 14/11/2023 at 22:37, MP-R said:

Nope, it would do everything to bring down a potentially good spring.

Complete waste. 

The only time I can think of snow in March which didnt ruin a good spring was in late March 2022, as it came at the end of a lovely March, and before a decent April, though May 2022 wasnt very good because it was dull

Edited November 16, 2023 by baddie

[John88B]

The winter fun and games begins on the mod thread. Lots of positive comments for lovers of cold weather yet Matt Hugo disagreeing with them and he knows his stuff.

So confusing for a complete novice like me but great reading nonetheless. 

For my part, living in one of the milder parts of the country, my interest really starts in early December when down here cold, wintry weather becomes a real possibility. 

Anyway best of luck this season for lovers of cold seasonal weather and let's hope for a few months bucking the trend of the endless milder than average months

[Matty88]

Despite what a number of the more senior posters will tell you in the model output thread, and yes I get that the background signals, El Nino etc etc all point towards a more mobile Westerly based pattern, however, in the bigger picture the weather tends to always find a way of balancing itself out - and after a prolonged period of a barrage of LP's I have had the feeling  for some time that HP will find a way in - somehow - and the models DO seem to gradually paint this picture, not many can deny this. 

You look at most of the ensemble members and charts and the theme is HP will be having an influence in some form or another, and whilst doing so ALSO potentially disrupting the direction of travel of the jet. The more potent PV may well play in favour in this scenerio ie sending a charge/charges of Polar air our way and into NW Europe. 

So some interesting ingredients on the table going into December currently... those are my thoughts anyway! 

 

Edited November 17, 2023 by Blessed Weather
Unnecessary comment aimed at other members removed.

[Cwmbran Eira]

3 hours ago, Matty88 said:

Despite what a number of the more senior posters will tell you in the model output thread, and yes I get that the background signals, El Nino etc etc all point towards a more mobile Westerly based pattern, however, in the bigger picture the weather tends to always find a way of balancing itself out - and after a prolonged period of a barrage of LP's I have had the feeling  for some time that HP will find a way in - somehow - and the models DO seem to gradually paint this picture, not many can deny this. 

You look at most of the ensemble members and charts and the theme is HP will be having an influence in some form or another, and whilst doing so ALSO potentially disrupting the direction of travel of the jet. The more potent PV may well play in favour in this scenerio ie sending a charge/charges of Polar air our way and into NW Europe. 

So some interesting ingredients on the table going into December currently... those are my thoughts anyway! 

 

This is exactly my thoughts. We've had an incredibly wet 5 months. It can't go on. Although a wet December is the form horse for El Nino years i've had the feeling for a while this year might be different due to this long period of above average rainfall. 

[johncam]

Hopefully we can get a  cold spell right in the sweet spot mid Dec to mid Jan though mostly hope casting as usual 

[Catacol]

5 hours ago, Matty88 said:

Despite what a number of the more senior posters will tell you in the model output thread, and yes I get that the background signals, El Nino etc etc all point towards a more mobile Westerly based pattern, however, in the bigger picture the weather tends to always find a way of balancing itself out - and after a prolonged period of a barrage of LP's I have had the feeling  for some time that HP will find a way in - somehow - and the models DO seem to gradually paint this picture, not many can deny this. 

You look at most of the ensemble members and charts and the theme is HP will be having an influence in some form or another, and whilst doing so ALSO potentially disrupting the direction of travel of the jet. The more potent PV may well play in favour in this scenerio ie sending a charge/charges of Polar air our way and into NW Europe. 

So some interesting ingredients on the table going into December currently... those are my thoughts anyway! 

 

The wax and wane picture you refer to here is a reflection of momentum budgets that are constantly trying to resolve to an exact match (ie - atmosphere and earth spinning at the exact same rate) but which are constantly out of alignment. The existence of mountain ranges means that storm systems hitting mountains impacts on this earth atmosphere relationship and so too do powerful features such as hurricanes/typhoons or even convection activity at the equator (represented by the MJO metric) that sends ripples through the momentum budgets. It's a complex picture and the relationship between momentum at the tropics and momentum in the sub tropics is part of that complexity. The winter polar vortex adds another element to things, a factor not present in the summer.

To cut things short - it is rare to see a flat westerly pattern last for too long because the very momentum drop (or sometimes surge) that creates the dominant westerly cannot sustain for ever as naturally the earth and atmosphere constantly tries to come back to synchronicity. There are exceptions - and anecdotally it appears to me that extreme patterns are showing a propensity for lasting longer in our CC world - but the picture is normally one of waxing and waning patterns based around an overall overlay that sees sub tropical high pressure belts dominate latitudes to our south.

I would agree, therefore, that the westerliness will not last forever purely because of the momentum relationship described above, but it is rather simplistic to assume it will necessarily change within the next 2-3 weeks. This is where an understanding of the drivers that might help support a change - or conversely help sustain the current pattern a bit longer - are key. Right now we have equatorial pacific drivers that are working to sustain this westerliness. We are in a Nino year so we would anticipate seeing convective activity being reasonably robust (so far through the autumn this feature has been fairly subdued but in winter time it normally increases) and until we get later in December the position of any convection is not helpful for scrubbing out those westerlies. And the stratospheric polar vortex is also working towards its normal peak strength, so while tropospheric factors work to sustain westerlies a bit longer yet we have stratospheric influences that will do the same. There was a chance that the current MJO phase where things are sitting favourably might help imprint a more amplified pattern at our latitude as we go into December (something I intimated at in a post a while ago) but I dont think this activity has been strong enough. A waviness to the pattern that might bring a passing arctic influence is a decent punt in a fortnight's time approx, but not a block that will hold, sustain and drag in proper frigid air.

The senior posters (whoever they are....) have tended to be pretty consistent as we approach this season. Core factors continue to suggest a westerly bias through the rest of this month and with a weak MJO positioned in the IO I would suggest through most of December too. People will argue as to what the cause of any change will be after that - for me it will be brought about by the next pacific MJO wave/cycle passing through the maritimes interacting with a profile at higher latitudes which looks likely to support disruption to the vortex. Patterns elsewhere in the globe are leaning towards a north pacific low which will fire warmth off the Rockies into the stratosphere and also a signal for the ongoing atlantic westerlies to support a long wave pattern allowing a Ural High to emerge and embed. Put the Urals in alongside the Rockies and the stratosphere will come under attack. Nino statistically supports this further as the wind flow budgets will maintain atmospheric momentum bursts....and this in turn will support the formation of higher latitude blocking once the context is supportive.

Seasonal models have been screaming this evolution for a couple of months. So - I wouldnt hold your breath for a change to the westerlies soon....but if the next pacific wave arrives when we can assume it will (and being honest this is subject to some movement) I would see blocking appearing in the models during the second half of December to begin taking hold in real time as we move into 2024. The winter Holy Grail would be for a simultaneous warm attack on the strat vortex that causes a reversal in early January - and ideally a split reversal - allowing the dice to roll and a really frigid spell to hit parts of the northern hemisphere. We then have a raffle ticket...

Much that is simplified above. Much not discussed, not least the impact of the eQBO phase, relevance of solar, relevance of the more recently understood impact of the IOD and other longer term influences such as an emerging atlantic tripole. I think if you read the posts of the likes of Matt, Tamara, Crewe (now CFreeze), BlueA, DamiansL, Squeaky and others you will see a pretty consistent set of interpretations. No cold blocking on the horizon yet.

Edited November 17, 2023 by Catacol

[Met4Cast]

34 minutes ago, Catacol said:

The wax and wane picture you refer to here is a reflection of momentum budgets that are constantly trying to resolve to an exact match (ie - atmosphere and earth spinning at the exact same rate) but which are constantly out of alignment. The existence of mountain ranges means that storm systems hitting mountains impacts on this earth atmosphere relationship and so too do powerful features such as hurricanes/typhoons or even convection activity at the equator (represented by the MJO metric) that sends ripples through the momentum budgets. It's a complex picture and the relationship between momentum at the tropics and momentum in the sub tropics is part of that complexity. The winter polar vortex adds another element to things, a factor not present in the summer.

To cut things short - it is rare to see a flat westerly pattern last for too long because the very momentum drop (or sometimes surge) that creates the dominant westerly cannot sustain for ever as naturally the earth and atmosphere constantly tries to come back to synchronicity. There are exceptions - and anecdotally it appears to me that extreme patterns are showing a propensity for lasting longer in our CC world - but the picture is normally one of waxing and waning patterns based around an overall overlay that sees sub tropical high pressure belts dominate latitudes to our south.

I would agree, therefore, that the westerliness will not last forever purely because of the momentum relationship described above, but it is rather simplistic to assume it will necessarily change within the next 2-3 weeks. This is where an understanding of the drivers that might help support a change - or conversely help sustain the current pattern a bit longer - are key. Right now we have equatorial pacific drivers that are working to sustain this westerliness. We are in a Nino year so we would anticipate seeing convective activity being reasonably robust (so far through the autumn this feature has been fairly subdued but in winter time it normally increases) and until we get later in December the position of any convection is not helpful for scrubbing out those westerlies. And the stratospheric polar vortex is also working towards its normal peak strength, so while tropospheric factors work to sustain westerlies a bit longer yet we have stratospheric influences that will do the same. There was a chance that the current MJO phase where things are sitting favourably might help imprint a more amplified pattern at our latitude as we go into December (something I intimated at in a post a while ago) but I dont think this activity has been strong enough. A waviness to the pattern that might bring a passing arctic influence is a decent punt in a fortnight's time approx, but not a block that will hold, sustain and drag in proper frigid air.

The senior posters (whoever they are....) have tended to be pretty consistent as we approach this season. Core factors continue to suggest a westerly bias through the rest of this month and with a weak MJO positioned in the IO I would suggest through most of December too. People will argue as to what the cause of any change will be after that - for me it will be brought about by the next pacific MJO wave/cycle passing through the maritimes interacting with a profile at higher latitudes which looks likely to support disruption to the vortex. Patterns elsewhere in the globe are leaning towards a north pacific low which will fire warmth off the Rockies into the stratosphere and also a signal for the ongoing atlantic westerlies to support a long wave pattern allowing a Ural High to emerge and embed. Put the Urals in alongside the Rockies and the stratosphere will come under attack. Nino statistically supports this further as the wind flow budgets will maintain atmospheric momentum bursts....and this in turn will support the formation of higher latitude blocking once the context is supportive.

Seasonal models have been screaming this evolution for a couple of months. So - I wouldnt hold your breath for a change to the westerlies soon....but if the next pacific wave arrives when we can assume it will (and being honest this is subject to some movement) I would see blocking appearing in the models during the second half of December to begin taking hold in real time as we move into 2024. The winter Holy Grail would be for a simultaneous warm attack on the strat vortex that causes a reversal in early January - and ideally a split reversal - allowing the dice to roll and a really frigid spell to hit parts of the northern hemisphere. We then have a raffle ticket...

Much that is simplified above. Much not discussed, not least the impact of the eQBO phase, relevance of solar, relevance of the more recently understood impact of the IOD and other longer term influences such as an emerging atlantic tripole. I think if you read the posts of the likes of Matt, Tamara, Crewe (now CFreeze), BlueA, DamiansL, Squeaky and others you will see a pretty consistent set of interpretations. No cold blocking on the horizon yet.

Fantastic post & very well explained! Should be pinned to the top of the model output thread

Just to add, I believe the recent WWB event & subsequent rise in AAM combined with the weakly amplified MJO has helped to prop up the forthcoming (brief) Atlantic ridge. It’s a shame the early forecasts for a more robust MJO wave didn’t come to pass as we probably would have seen this high transition into a higher latitude block, but alas it wasn’t to be & everything you explained above took the lead instead! 

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, Catacol said:

The wax and wane picture you refer to here is a reflection of momentum budgets that are constantly trying to resolve to an exact match (ie - atmosphere and earth spinning at the exact same rate) but which are constantly out of alignment. The existence of mountain ranges means that storm systems hitting mountains impacts on this earth atmosphere relationship and so too do powerful features such as hurricanes/typhoons or even convection activity at the equator (represented by the MJO metric) that sends ripples through the momentum budgets. It's a complex picture and the relationship between momentum at the tropics and momentum in the sub tropics is part of that complexity. The winter polar vortex adds another element to things, a factor not present in the summer.

To cut things short - it is rare to see a flat westerly pattern last for too long because the very momentum drop (or sometimes surge) that creates the dominant westerly cannot sustain for ever as naturally the earth and atmosphere constantly tries to come back to synchronicity. There are exceptions - and anecdotally it appears to me that extreme patterns are showing a propensity for lasting longer in our CC world - but the picture is normally one of waxing and waning patterns based around an overall overlay that sees sub tropical high pressure belts dominate latitudes to our south.

I would agree, therefore, that the westerliness will not last forever purely because of the momentum relationship described above, but it is rather simplistic to assume it will necessarily change within the next 2-3 weeks. This is where an understanding of the drivers that might help support a change - or conversely help sustain the current pattern a bit longer - are key. Right now we have equatorial pacific drivers that are working to sustain this westerliness. We are in a Nino year so we would anticipate seeing convective activity being reasonably robust (so far through the autumn this feature has been fairly subdued but in winter time it normally increases) and until we get later in December the position of any convection is not helpful for scrubbing out those westerlies. And the stratospheric polar vortex is also working towards its normal peak strength, so while tropospheric factors work to sustain westerlies a bit longer yet we have stratospheric influences that will do the same. There was a chance that the current MJO phase where things are sitting favourably might help imprint a more amplified pattern at our latitude as we go into December (something I intimated at in a post a while ago) but I dont think this activity has been strong enough. A waviness to the pattern that might bring a passing arctic influence is a decent punt in a fortnight's time approx, but not a block that will hold, sustain and drag in proper frigid air.

The senior posters (whoever they are....) have tended to be pretty consistent as we approach this season. Core factors continue to suggest a westerly bias through the rest of this month and with a weak MJO positioned in the IO I would suggest through most of December too. People will argue as to what the cause of any change will be after that - for me it will be brought about by the next pacific MJO wave/cycle passing through the maritimes interacting with a profile at higher latitudes which looks likely to support disruption to the vortex. Patterns elsewhere in the globe are leaning towards a north pacific low which will fire warmth off the Rockies into the stratosphere and also a signal for the ongoing atlantic westerlies to support a long wave pattern allowing a Ural High to emerge and embed. Put the Urals in alongside the Rockies and the stratosphere will come under attack. Nino statistically supports this further as the wind flow budgets will maintain atmospheric momentum bursts....and this in turn will support the formation of higher latitude blocking once the context is supportive.

Seasonal models have been screaming this evolution for a couple of months. So - I wouldnt hold your breath for a change to the westerlies soon....but if the next pacific wave arrives when we can assume it will (and being honest this is subject to some movement) I would see blocking appearing in the models during the second half of December to begin taking hold in real time as we move into 2024. The winter Holy Grail would be for a simultaneous warm attack on the strat vortex that causes a reversal in early January - and ideally a split reversal - allowing the dice to roll and a really frigid spell to hit parts of the northern hemisphere. We then have a raffle ticket...

Much that is simplified above. Much not discussed, not least the impact of the eQBO phase, relevance of solar, relevance of the more recently understood impact of the IOD and other longer term influences such as an emerging atlantic tripole. I think if you read the posts of the likes of Matt, Tamara, Crewe (now CFreeze), BlueA, DamiansL, Squeaky and others you will see a pretty consistent set of interpretations. No cold blocking on the horizon yet.

Excellent post, good reasoning explained for likely developments for the winter ahead, albeit caveated, with lots of unknown impacts.

Appears we will see something quite different to last winter, which brought coldest conditions very early on. This winter the chances for notable cold likely to increase as it wears on.

It is looking increasingly likely the winter will start off on a changeable note with the atlantic westerlies largely ruling the roost, but perhaps not having its own way throughout whole of December. Incursions of polar air may well be a strong feature as we move through second half of the month. All a long way off, and I'll be giving my thoughts on the winter as a whole later in November, lets just say it could be one with quite significant interest for cold and snow lovers, even if it gets off to a no show on those fronts.. the coldest snowiest winters usually do! and include March in this respect.

Edited November 17, 2023 by damianslaw

[SqueakheartLW]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Excellent post, good reasoning explained for likely developments for the winter ahead, albeit caveated, with lots of unknown impacts.

Appears we will see something quite different to last winter, which brought coldest conditions very early on. This winter the chances for notable cold likely to increase as it wears on.

It is looking increasingly likely the winter will start off on a changeable note with the atlantic westerlies largely ruling the roost, but perhaps not having its own way throughout whole of December. Incursions of polar air may well be a strong feature as we move through second half of the month. All a long way off, and I'll be giving my thoughts on the winter as a whole later in November, lets just say it could be one with quite significant interest for cold and snow lovers, even if it gets off to a no show on those fronts.. the coldest snowiest winters usually do! and include March in this respect.

I'm dreaming of a White Christmas.

If this proves true we look to be in with our best chance for years