Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts

[The Enforcer]

On 15/11/2023 at 16:22, sebastiaan1973 said:

An intresting read

Abstract

In Europe, the increase in temperatures caused by climate change has been particularly fast in the cold season. Although the magnitude of this change is relatively well known, less research has been done on how the increase of temperatures is manifested in different large-scale weather types, called weather regimes. For example, one could expect that the weather patterns in which air is flowing from the rapidly-warming Arctic would have warmed faster than other weather patterns in recent decades. Here we show that such an asymmetric warming actually occurs in the four Euro-Atlantic weather regimes. In northern Europe, the weather regime which is typically associated with cold airmasses from the Arctic (NAO–) has warmed about 25% faster than the cold-season days on average, and about 60% faster than the regime where the air flows from the North Atlantic (NAO+). Consequently, the weather regime that on average brings the coldest weather is warming the fastest in a large part of northern Europe. In contrast, the weather regime that typically brings the warmest weather has warmed the slowest, especially in the continental Europe. Our results provide a new perspective on the reported decrease of sub-seasonal temperature variability.  https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asl.1178

And here lies the crux of the problem. One can wait all winter (and early spring) for the charts to deliver on their many promises to bring some polar air. And when that opportunity finally arrives it's rain.

[Catacol]

4 hours ago, The Enforcer said:

And here lies the crux of the problem. One can wait all winter (and early spring) for the charts to deliver on their many promises to bring some polar air. And when that opportunity finally arrives it's rain.

Yes. Can't argue with that logic. But it is worth considering that CC has increased severe rainfall events and that means that when - and it will be when not if - we get a scenario where atlantic moisture undercuts continental cold sufficient to bring the white stuff down we could end up with more snowfall than in similar past events. This is what maintains the value of The Chase - we know we are seeing and will continue to see fewer snowfall events away from high ground....but the chances of an extreme snowfall event within a smaller numerical envelope is increasing. See 2018 in some parts. That was 5 years ago. About time the dice rolled kindly again.

Edited November 17, 2023 by Catacol

[SollyOlly]

9 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Yes. Can't argue with that logic. But it is worth considering that CC has increased severe rainfall events and that means that when - and it will be when not if - we get a scenario where atlantic moisture undercuts continental cold sufficient to bring the white stuff down we could end up with more snowfall than in similar past events. This is what maintains the value of The Chase - we know we are seeing and will continue to see fewer snowfall events away from high ground....but the chances of an extreme snowfall event within a smaller numerical envelope is increasing. See 2018 in some parts. That was 5 years ago. About time the dice rolled kindly again.

Yes, I think that I agree/ understand - fewer chances overall, but when it happens, it can be a stonker. Better that than nothing at all...

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

1 hour ago, Catacol said:

Yes. Can't argue with that logic. But it is worth considering that CC has increased severe rainfall events and that means that when - and it will be when not if - we get a scenario where atlantic moisture undercuts continental cold sufficient to bring the white stuff down we could end up with more snowfall than in similar past events. This is what maintains the value of The Chase - we know we are seeing and will continue to see fewer snowfall events away from high ground....but the chances of an extreme snowfall event within a smaller numerical envelope is increasing. See 2018 in some parts. That was 5 years ago. About time the dice rolled kindly again.

Climate change has been happening forever time, global warming however is a load of nonsense, and severe weather has also been happening for centuries, i think its more the narrative we get pushed down our throats that's got people thinking such things as above.

1947(feb)

1963 

1977

1979

1983

1990/91

1995

2009

2010

2013

2018

These are just winters.

Also from memory so may off the odd year or so but certainly since 83 (dob) iv saw many bad winters. 

Dry patch from 90's to 2008/9 but then we had a concession of bad winters. 

 

[mountain shadow]

42 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Climate change has been happening forever time, global warming however is a load of nonsense, and severe weather has also been happening for centuries, i think its more the narrative we get pushed down our throats that's got people thinking such things as above.

1947(feb)

1963 

1977

1979

1983

1990/91

1995

2009

2010

2013

2018

These are just winters.

Also from memory so may off the odd year or so but certainly since 83 (dob) iv saw many bad winters. 

Dry patch from 90's to 2008/9 but then we had a concession of bad winters. 

 

You're confusing climate change with man-made climate change.  The former has been happening forever, the latter since the industrial revolution. 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

27 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

You're confusing climate change with man-made climate change.  The former has been happening forever, the latter since the industrial revolution. 

Human input into man made pollution into the atmosphere is 11% of 0.4% (all damaging current pollution/damage) that's the real figures. 

Will try and find the video which was quite brief so doable 

[Catacol]

6 hours ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Human input into man made pollution into the atmosphere is 11% of 0.4% (all damaging current pollution/damage) that's the real figures. 

Will try and find the video which was quite brief so doable 

OK. Back in the world of data driven analysis note the general path of the current MJO plot

As noted in a previous post amplitude looks likely to increase and it is heading back into the IO. This is a forcing that will promote further atlantic troughing and a westerly pattern. Note the rising GWO orbit into Nino related territory

which again supports westerliness at this time of the winter and especially while the vortex is shaping up like this

and through the layers little to no sense of hemispheric blocking changing the pattern

 

Westerly all the way for a few weeks to come with a brief HP interlude towards month's end, courtesy of the 6/7/8 passage of the current wave. But as said before keep an eye on the MJO passage, reemergence of a it through 6/7/8 at decent amplitude later in December and keep praying for trop patterns that will pressure the vortex. If the GWO orbit continues to rise into Nino phases - and I think it will - it supports more blocked patterns later in winter statistically....though super Nino territory would not be good. Worth keeping an eye on the ENSO plots there.

 

 

Edited November 18, 2023 by Catacol

[Chesil View]

Good post Catacol.

Apart from the odd possible frost I'm not expecting anything widespread in the wintry department until after mid December at the very earliest.

[Premiere Neige]

8 hours ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Climate change has been happening forever time, global warming however is a load of nonsense, and severe weather has also been happening for centuries, i think its more the narrative we get pushed down our throats that's got people thinking such things as above.

1947(feb)

1963 

1977

1979

1983

1990/91

1995

2009

2010

2013

2018

These are just winters.

Also from memory so may off the odd year or so but certainly since 83 (dob) iv saw many bad winters. 

Dry patch from 90's to 2008/9 but then we had a concession of bad winters. 

 

Are you saying that because you've had 11 "bad" winters in 76 years in your back yard that global warming doesn't exist? If so, then that's kind of missing the point of global...

7 hours ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Human input into man made pollution into the atmosphere is 11% of 0.4% (all damaging current pollution/damage) that's the real figures. 

Will try and find the video which was quite brief so doable 

Surely human input into man made pollution is 100%?

[sebastiaan1973]

For those who missed these charts. February (above) shows the most promise. 

Edited November 18, 2023 by sebastiaan1973

[Premiere Neige]

2 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

For those who missed these charts. February (above) shows the most promise. 

Are these charts an average of all the models mentioned? 

[Met4Cast]

Not sure if this is allowed but I've written an article on Snow Watch discussing the various drivers I think will be relevant going into this winter & what the impact on the UK winter could be.

Winter 2023/24 Thoughts • Snow Watch

SNOWWATCH.ORG

---

We're deep into what has been a particularly wet autumn and naturally thoughts are beginning to turn to winter. Will winter bring more of this unpleasa ...

Spoiler: There are some conflicting variables!

[sebastiaan1973]

50 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:

Are these charts an average of all the models mentioned? 

Yep. 

[johncam]

4 hours ago, Chesil View said:

Good post Catacol.

Apart from the odd possible frost I'm not expecting anything widespread in the wintry department until after mid December at the very earliest.

Thats depressing as Scottish Ski resorts need a good season or can see a few of them shutting up shop.

[The Enforcer]

4 hours ago, Premier Neige said:

Are you saying that because you've had 11 "bad" winters in 76 years in your back yard that global warming doesn't exist? If so, then that's kind of missing the point of global...

Surely human input into man made pollution is 100%?

Maybe there is a small % from livestock farting?

[Chesil View]

53 minutes ago, johncam said:

Thats depressing as Scottish Ski resorts need a good season or can see a few of them shutting up shop.

Talking from a personal perspective for mysouth coast location John. 

[Premiere Neige]

1 hour ago, The Enforcer said:

Maybe there is a small % from livestock farting?

Maybe. But that's still the fault of humans really...

[recklessabandon]

13 hours ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Human input into man made pollution into the atmosphere is 11% of 0.4% (all damaging current pollution/damage) that's the real figures. 

Will try and find the video which was quite brief so doable 

Except that's misrepresenting the problem. Global CO2 is more than 30pc higher than has ever been the known case on earth (and still rising), and certainly in the last million years, and it all started when we industrialised. 

 

[Blessed Weather]

This isn't the thread for discussing CC please folks. Head over to the Climate Change area of the forum for that. Thank you.

 

 

[Matty88]

An excellent response to my earlier post by Catacol highlighting the many potential influences, so often not considered by merely looking at the key drivers and main models. 

I know not all will agree with my view which goes against the grain to what many have posted but I sincerely believe we are well overdue a HP phase and this ‘’could’’ cause an upset in the coming weeks and going on into December.

Currently though it is still all to play for. Interesting times - that’s why we all love it I suppose! all eyes on how the ECM and GFS come out of this!!!! 

[Sceptical]

On 18/11/2023 at 12:55, johncam said:

Thats depressing as Scottish Ski resorts need a good season or can see a few of them shutting up shop.

If it wasn't for artificial snow making, I suspect a couple would have stopped offering snow sports.

[Premiere Neige]

Just watched the BBC weekly forecast. They mentioned it turning colder at the end of the week and he said in a kind of Rob McElwwe style that there's a possibility of things turning much colder after that

[The Enforcer]

29 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:

Just watched the BBC weekly forecast. They mentioned it turning colder at the end of the week and he said in a kind of Rob McElwwe style that there's a possibility of things turning much colder after that

 

[Premiere Neige]

7 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

 

That's the one. Obviously he didn't do it as well as Rob used to!

[bluearmy]

December on the latest cfsv2 run 
This is not a consistent output btw