Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts

[Don]

5 minutes ago, RJBingham said:

If you are after building a snowman this winter, don't look.

 

ECMWF | Charts

CHARTS.ECMWF.INT

 

Looks pretty inconclusive to my eye, with a large spread in ensembles for the winter period as expected at this range, unless I'm mistaken?

[RJBingham]

7 minutes ago, Don said:

Looks pretty inconclusive to my eye, with a large spread in ensembles for the winter period as expected at this range, unless I'm mistaken?

Never

[markyo]

2 hours ago, RJBingham said:

Mild and dry

 

Winter forecast 2023/2024: First in-depth Winter weather outlook and how the pressure patterns will develop under the strong El Nino event » Severe Weather Europe

WWW.SEVERE-WEATHER.EU

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A first look at the Winter 2023/2024 forecast for the United States, Canada, and Europe shows a strong influence of the growing El Nino event

 

I suspect your reading into that what you want to see.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

It's difficut forecasting what the weather is going to do in 4 days time, let alone 4 months time. This is what makes it fun, yet at times frustrating.

 

[bryan629]

At least cansips is sticking to its guns ( June and July editions) 

 

[Liam Burge]

13 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

This is interesting how CFS is already going for a weaker vortex right out to November.

Maybe why a lot of long range models are showing blocking signals.

That looks like CFS is going for an SSW with reversal in the winds?

[Midlands Ice Age]

58 minutes ago, RJBingham said:

Goodness knows, I think any predictions/ models this far out need to be taken with a massive dose of salt, still the article is out there so worth a read anyway. 

The  article  mainly uses the American forecast models (where the downstream el nino conditions are more  easily understood),  as they hit the western coastline directly.

I do rate the centre  (severe weather in Europe), and the report is factually correct at the current time, but no one has yet produced an accurate long range forecasting tool.

They have little forecast material for the Atlantic and downstream available yet,

Thus they have used the analogues from previous years in order to produce their forecast for Europe.

As far as I can see they seem to talk mainly about the data from previous SSW events!!!!.

We all know how unpredictable these can be, although they suggest that Scandinavia could be colder and snowier than usual, and as we know cold over that part of the world might be good for us.

I didn't particularly get the impression that the UK would be mild and dry. To me it was very much normal with little variation from normal.

Remember the charts they supplied were anomalies not actual forecasts.

MIA

PS I have not looked at your latest ECMWF charts yet, but forecasting winter now????? 

Edited August 21, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age

[Mike Poole]

1 hour ago, RJBingham said:

If you are after building a snowman this winter, don't look.

 

ECMWF | Charts

CHARTS.ECMWF.INT

 

Perfectly happy with that at this point.  

You would expect there to be warm and cold runs at this stage, and for the mean to be above the 1993-2016 climatology given global warming.  But there are obviously some really cold runs in there, more skewing the distribution in the direction of cold than warm.  And there’s variability within a single run to factor in as well, any periods with SW winds are likely this year to be very mild, so any blocked periods might quite cold to give that average.  

2m temperature charts at this range are not very telling really, there’s hope for coldies and those who prefer mild in that chart.  I’m more interested at the moment in the kind of pressure patterns that the seasonal models are throwing out.  

 

[BruenSryan]

18 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

This is interesting how CFS is already going for a weaker vortex right out to November.

Maybe why a lot of long range models are showing blocking signals.

Fixed it for you.

[Don]

45 minutes ago, BruenSryan said:

Fixed it for you.

That's upside down!!  

[BruenSryan]

25 minutes ago, Don said:

That's upside down!!  

We wish mate.

[Dancerwithwings]

1 hour ago, Don said:

That's upside down!!  

Brilliant

[SqueakheartLW]

1 hour ago, Don said:

That's upside down!!  

LOL

A rerun of the weak 2020/21 vortex during the winter season would do me just fine if we don't get a split.

Otherwise a 2012/13 vortex season repeat would do nicely with a nice split and destruction of the vortex.

[legion_quest]

Too many oddities and combinations of things going on to accurately use historical history to forecast imo. Reckon winter may have some surprises to throw out this year. 

[Don]

2 hours ago, BruenSryan said:

We wish mate.

That's all!!

[stodge]

My only observation so far would be if we were to have above normal SSTs going into winter, we would expect storms to be more intense as they could draw warmer air and moisture from the sea.

In particular, I think we could be looking at a scenario of rapid if not explosive cyclogenesis of secondary LP features along slow-moving frontal systems bringing enhanced wind and rain. These phenomena tend to affect southern and central parts thought can also accentuate orographic rainfall in the Lakes and other areas.

It wouldn't surprise me to see a spell of such strong secondary LP features moving rapidly ENE in a strong jet stream deepending rapidly across the warmer water and bringing a lot of wind and rain.

We may get a hint of this if ex-tropical features coming off North America or recurving from the central Atlantic reach our shores with more potent wind and rain than has been the case.

[Don]

1 hour ago, SqueakheartLW said:

LOL

A rerun of the weak 2020/21 vortex during the winter season would do me just fine if we don't get a split.

Otherwise a 2012/13 vortex season repeat would do nicely with a nice split and destruction of the vortex.

Yes, would happy with those years.

 

[summer blizzard]

Enjoyed seeing some dismiss the forecast from Severe Weather Europe despite it being well reasoned and arguably playing out as recently as winter 2015 and possibly 05.

They are basically saying the main trough will push into Scandinavia and promote a high over south east Europe with the Azores High probably influencing western Europe. But that might suggest a good month where the trough is better placed, especially since the forecast is for a -AO.

Edited August 21, 2023 by summer blizzard

[Beanz]

9 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Enjoyed seeing some dismiss the forecast from Severe Weather Europe despite it being well reasoned and arguably playing out as recently as winter 2015 and possibly 05.

They are basically saying the main trough will push into Scandinavia and promote a high over south east Europe with the Azores High probably influencing western Europe. But that might suggest a good month where the trough is better placed, especially since the forecast is for a -AO.

Oh I don’t know, I think most of the comments regarding that have been just as well reasoned.  Whilst I can’t remember them ever accurately forecasting a winter, they’re no different to any other LRF.  It’s just a bit of fun and they’re having a go too.  

[daz_4]

11 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Enjoyed seeing some dismiss the forecast from Severe Weather Europe despite it being well reasoned and arguably playing out as recently as winter 2015 and possibly 05.

Very different winters, at least in Central Europe.

[jules216]

1 hour ago, daz_4 said:

Very different winters, at least in Central Europe.

Thing that its often overlooked is that 2015/16 was going rather nicely, nearly whole of January until 26th was cold only that stupid minor SSW re-shuffled the very promising acumulated cold. Again undone by badly timed SSW, like 1987,2002,2009,2021 etc. All of these occasions SSW did more harm then good for us in central Europe as it shifts the cold away to North and West Europe. We need no SSW and just below average zonal winds just like 2016/17 and -EA pattern not -NAO which does often more bad then good, the closer you go to central Europe from west.

Edited August 22, 2023 by jules216

[CryoraptorA303]

Well, I must say, the seasonals are optimistic at this stage. I'm hoping for a really cold January this time; the last time we had any real snow down south in January was 2010. 2013 was cold but seriously underdelivered with the snow, and was also really back-ended. I'd also take a nice cold February; we've had a few brief episodes in some recent Februaries but we haven't had a seriously cold February since 2012. Having said that, climate change is making February less and less viable for serious winter weather (seasonal lag seems to be getting weaker and weaker in the winter-spring transition), so I'd say December and January will be our best bets for cold winter months going forward.

On another note, a strong El Nino will mean the jet stream is likely to be weak this year, so hopefully this can translate to a cold configuration lasting longer than usual, and we can get 2+ weeks of a really cold spell in. We're way overdue a month like February 1986, which sadly I was not alive for.

[summer blizzard]

4 hours ago, Beanz said:

Oh I don’t know, I think most of the comments regarding that have been just as well reasoned.  Whilst I can’t remember them ever accurately forecasting a winter, they’re no different to any other LRF.  It’s just a bit of fun and they’re having a go too.  

In truth I don't recall their prior forecasts albeit I'm given to understand they are proper mets there (American I assume). But there were a few early comments quit dismissive or suggesting that the QBO was not taken into account ect.. 

Personally I don't buy any long range forecast because their records are always somewhat questionable and I trust my own thoughts (wrong or right) at such range but I do think that there's a little too much excitement from some quarters. Neither EL Nino or -QBO guarantees a cool winter and I'm sure if records went back further, statistics would back that. 

As alluded to, while I don't personally view them as the strongest analogues, the kind of pattern alluded to did play out for winters 05 and 15 so El Nino (though weaker then) can produce that kind of outcome and in quite recent times.

1 hour ago, jules216 said:

Thing that its often overlooked is that 2015/16 was going rather nicely, nearly whole of January until 26th was cold only that stupid minor SSW re-shuffled the very promising acumulated cold. Again undone by badly timed SSW, like 1987,2002,2009,2021 etc. All of these occasions SSW did more harm then good for us in central Europe as it shifts the cold away to North and West Europe. We need no SSW and just below average zonal winds just like 2016/17 and -EA pattern not -NAO which does often more bad then good, the closer you go to central Europe from west.

I was referring to 14/15 rather than the later. 

[jules216]

27 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

In truth I don't recall their prior forecasts albeit I'm given to understand they are proper mets there (American I assume). But there were a few early comments quit dismissive or suggesting that the QBO was not taken into account ect.. 

Personally I don't buy any long range forecast because their records are always somewhat questionable and I trust my own thoughts (wrong or right) at such range but I do think that there's a little too much excitement from some quarters. Neither EL Nino or -QBO guarantees a cool winter and I'm sure if records went back further, statistics would back that. 

As alluded to, while I don't personally view them as the strongest analogues, the kind of pattern alluded to did play out for winters 05 and 15 so El Nino (though weaker then) can produce that kind of outcome and in quite recent times.

I was referring to 14/15 rather than the later. 

It was nearly the same as the year that followed. Minor SSW early January 2015 put an end to promising cold snap that lasted from 27.12 to second week of January here in Slovakia. Almost every time this happens with Minor SSW events. They somehow re-shuffle the atmosphere against our central Europe cold snaps. Just a pity no one else really monitors this or does research. As its been repeated tíme and tíme again. The pre-cursor or onset pattern is cold while 1-3 weeks after shuts it down.

[CryoraptorA303]

38 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

In truth I don't recall their prior forecasts albeit I'm given to understand they are proper mets there (American I assume). But there were a few early comments quit dismissive or suggesting that the QBO was not taken into account ect.. 

Personally I don't buy any long range forecast because their records are always somewhat questionable and I trust my own thoughts (wrong or right) at such range but I do think that there's a little too much excitement from some quarters. Neither EL Nino or -QBO guarantees a cool winter and I'm sure if records went back further, statistics would back that. 

As alluded to, while I don't personally view them as the strongest analogues, the kind of pattern alluded to did play out for winters 05 and 15 so El Nino (though weaker then) can produce that kind of outcome and in quite recent times.

I was referring to 14/15 rather than the later. 

As far as historical analogues go, right now there are around an equal number of (I should note, non-seasonal forecast; I'm talking about personal 'gut feelings') things pointing in the directions of 2009 and 2015 so far. This of course would be expected from a hybrid of those two years: -QBO and Super Nino, respectively. Right now, it could go in either one of those directions, or maybe even both (one month is a January 2010, the other is a December 2015 in no particular order), or perhaps neither and we'll see something entirely different. As others have pointed out, there really isn't much of a historical analogue for the situation we find ourselves in. We're in uncharted territory, and the seasonals are going to reflect that at this stage, as are many of the gut feelings.

Edited August 22, 2023 by CryoraptorA303