Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts

[CryoraptorA303]

I'm liking the signals so far. September ECM seasonals going for strong east-based -NAO in January and similar in February. With the strong El Nino and -QBO this would make sense; I think the relative lack of back-ended winters in the last 10 years has really not helped us, among the other factors at play here. The best winters (1708/09, 1894/95, 62/63, 86/87) all start on a relatively rubbish note with a delayed autumn period going into December, before the fun starts around Christmas or new year and Jan-Feb is an absolute classic. Front-ended winters can be very intense in December with the extremely low insolation, but almost always burn out by the new year and give way to an early spring. 20/21 was a failed attempt at a back-ended classic, while 09/10 couldn't decide whether it was a cold Christmas or a back-ended belter and we ended up with a cold, but not exceptional winter in the end. 15/16 was extremely back-ended, but on the global stage of the strongest El Nino event on record and other less than favourable phases of oscillations, ambient temperatures were simply FAR too high to allow for anything cold to really set in until we were well into spring and it didn't matter at that point. The front-ended winters when they have happened have performed a lot better with December 2010 and 2022 both delivering some powerful cold spells (one MUCH more powerful than the other) but expectedly giving up by new years. The only real exception to this is 2011/12 which was a total waste of time aside from the February 2012 cold snap, which is one of the most memorable blasts in recent memory and surely the last good February (2018 and 2021 are NOT contenders) up to the present. I exclude 2018 as the cold plummet only came right at the end, and 2017/18 had been otherwise a waste of time.  February 21 doesn't need an explanation - the snow was nice while it lasted, but the last two weeks of that February were a disaster.

The best winters aside from 62/63 would appear to happen during El Nino events. This may be counterintuitive, as La Nina is the cooler phase of ENSO, but during La Nina, the jet stream will generally be stronger, and so we are less likely to get stuck under a cold system. Nino generally makes the jet stream significantly weaker, and getting stuck above a southerly jet stream is considerably more likely. It should also be mentioned that El Nino can encourage a SSW, which if this is of the 'split' type, is likely to lead to -NAO conditions in Europe. This is generally the phase of NAO you want for colder winter weather, unless it's a west-based -NAO, which will do the opposite, unless it's really far west like in December 2010 or 2022, in which case some shenanigans can happen and the cold air seeps in anyway.

For some examples, 86/87 happened during a moderate-strong Nino (I forget exactly how strong), and to boot, it was after a double Nina the year before, which may suggest some analogy with this year, us being in Nino after a triple Nina and all. The infamous trio of 39/40, 40/41 and 41/42 happened in/after a strong Nino that occurred after a Nina in 38/39. It should also be noted that the period from ~1920 to ~1937 was a time of markedly low ENSO activity, which may have contributed to the lack of severe weather events in that time in the colder half of the year (the 20s and 30s are notorious for having poor winters), as you didn't have a giant anomaly in the Pacific encouraging instability in the global weather network, which essentially meant a stable jet stream spewing garbage over Europe near-constantly. The amplitude of the returning ENSO after a long period of relative inactivity may have contributed to how severely those winters hit Europe. 09/10, while not on the same scale as the previous giants, also happened during a moderate-strong Nino after a period of Nina dominance. However, there is a trump card as 62/63 would tell you - ENSO-neutral conditions can also lead to endogenous European systems becoming much more stable, and it is this that allows for something like 62/63. Suffice to say, that won't happen this year, although expecting 62/63 to happen in any given year is ridiculous.

I do agree that September is correlated with the winter ahead of it, to some extent. Both September 1939 and 2009 were quite warm. September 2010 started off quite warm as well. September 2016 was one of the hottest on record, and 2016/17 was certainly less bad than some of the others in the 2013-2022 bracket. September 2006 being the (current - may be subject to change) hottest on record is the anomaly though, with 06/07 being one of the mildest winters on record. September 2021 was similarly also one of the hottest on record, second even, and 2021/22 was an absolute waste of time. I have no idea how 88/89 is still working out as milder than some of the horrendous extended autumns we have now experienced; surely 2019/20 beats this with how consistently horrible temperatures were? Even that aside, something like eight out of the ten mildest winters on record are now winters after 2000, and even the 'colder' winters of this century so far, which would have very likely been absolute belters pre-1980, are not even close to looking some of the classics in the eye. Even individually, January and December 2010, the coldest months of this century that brought some remarkably consistent cold temperatures, are not even the tenth coldest in the CET. February is a total no-show with no markedly cold Februaries at all in this century so far, with February 2012 having a big cold spell, but overall not being exceptional in the record. I get a bad feeling that the relative loss in amplitude in the September correlation is a symptom of climate change, and something like 2009/10 now IS the cold back-ended winter, and there's nothing better aside from the occasional 62/63 to look forward to. If our winters really are this existentially threatened, then this year is likely our last chance to have a classic, a winter worthy of looking 86/87 et al. in the eye, before our winters go extinct and we are eternally stuck with rubbish.

To give my finishing notes, January is the month I'm really gunning for this time. Let's have a giant, memorable January blast comparable to 1987 to make up for 10+ years of really mediocre at best Januaries. By February, I don't really care as much anymore as I'll be in Austria for my birthday next year. As long as we don't get a +NAO disaster, I should be fine regardless of what's going on. A cold spell in early February would just be the icing, or, well, snow on the cake.

[blizzard81]

25 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

I'm liking the signals so far. September ECM seasonals going for strong east-based -NAO in January and similar in February. With the strong El Nino and -QBO this would make sense; I think the relative lack of back-ended winters in the last 10 years has really not helped us, among the other factors at play here. The best winters (1708/09, 1894/95, 62/63, 86/87) all start on a relatively rubbish note with a delayed autumn period going into December, before the fun starts around Christmas or new year and Jan-Feb is an absolute classic. Front-ended winters can be very intense in December with the extremely low insolation, but almost always burn out by the new year and give way to an early spring. 20/21 was a failed attempt at a back-ended classic, while 09/10 couldn't decide whether it was a cold Christmas or a back-ended belter and we ended up with a cold, but not exceptional winter in the end. 15/16 was extremely back-ended, but on the global stage of the strongest El Nino event on record and other less than favourable phases of oscillations, ambient temperatures were simply FAR too high to allow for anything cold to really set in until we were well into spring and it didn't matter at that point. The front-ended winters when they have happened have performed a lot better with December 2010 and 2022 both delivering some powerful cold spells (one MUCH more powerful than the other) but expectedly giving up by new years. The only real exception to this is 2011/12 which was a total waste of time aside from the February 2012 cold snap, which is one of the most memorable blasts in recent memory and surely the last good February (2018 and 2021 are NOT contenders) up to the present. I exclude 2018 as the cold plummet only came right at the end, and 2017/18 had been otherwise a waste of time.  February 21 doesn't need an explanation - the snow was nice while it lasted, but the last two weeks of that February were a disaster.

The best winters aside from 62/63 would appear to happen during El Nino events. This may be counterintuitive, as La Nina is the cooler phase of ENSO, but during La Nina, the jet stream will generally be stronger, and so we are less likely to get stuck under a cold system. Nino generally makes the jet stream significantly weaker, and getting stuck above a southerly jet stream is considerably more likely. It should also be mentioned that El Nino can encourage a SSW, which if this is of the 'split' type, is likely to lead to -NAO conditions in Europe. This is generally the phase of NAO you want for colder winter weather, unless it's a west-based -NAO, which will do the opposite, unless it's really far west like in December 2010 or 2022, in which case some shenanigans can happen and the cold air seeps in anyway.

For some examples, 86/87 happened during a moderate-strong Nino (I forget exactly how strong), and to boot, it was after a double Nina the year before, which may suggest some analogy with this year, us being in Nino after a triple Nina and all. The infamous trio of 39/40, 40/41 and 41/42 happened in/after a strong Nino that occurred after a Nina in 38/39. It should also be noted that the period from ~1920 to ~1937 was a time of markedly low ENSO activity, which may have contributed to the lack of severe weather events in that time in the colder half of the year (the 20s and 30s are notorious for having poor winters), as you didn't have a giant anomaly in the Pacific encouraging instability in the global weather network, which essentially meant a stable jet stream spewing garbage over Europe near-constantly. The amplitude of the returning ENSO after a long period of relative inactivity may have contributed to how severely those winters hit Europe. 09/10, while not on the same scale as the previous giants, also happened during a moderate-strong Nino after a period of Nina dominance. However, there is a trump card as 62/63 would tell you - ENSO-neutral conditions can also lead to endogenous European systems becoming much more stable, and it is this that allows for something like 62/63. Suffice to say, that won't happen this year, although expecting 62/63 to happen in any given year is ridiculous.

I do agree that September is correlated with the winter ahead of it, to some extent. Both September 1939 and 2009 were quite warm. September 2010 started off quite warm as well. September 2016 was one of the hottest on record, and 2016/17 was certainly less bad than some of the others in the 2013-2022 bracket. September 2006 being the (current - may be subject to change) hottest on record is the anomaly though, with 06/07 being one of the mildest winters on record. September 2021 was similarly also one of the hottest on record, second even, and 2021/22 was an absolute waste of time. I have no idea how 88/89 is still working out as milder than some of the horrendous extended autumns we have now experienced; surely 2019/20 beats this with how consistently horrible temperatures were? Even that aside, something like eight out of the ten mildest winters on record are now winters after 2000, and even the 'colder' winters of this century so far, which would have very likely been absolute belters pre-1980, are not even close to looking some of the classics in the eye. Even individually, January and December 2010, the coldest months of this century that brought some remarkably consistent cold temperatures, are not even the tenth coldest in the CET. February is a total no-show with no markedly cold Februaries at all in this century so far, with February 2012 having a big cold spell, but overall not being exceptional in the record. I get a bad feeling that the relative loss in amplitude in the September correlation is a symptom of climate change, and something like 2009/10 now IS the cold back-ended winter, and there's nothing better aside from the occasional 62/63 to look forward to. If our winters really are this existentially threatened, then this year is likely our last chance to have a classic, a winter worthy of looking 86/87 et al. in the eye, before our winters go extinct and we are eternally stuck with rubbish.

To give my finishing notes, January is the month I'm really gunning for this time. Let's have a giant, memorable January blast comparable to 1987 to make up for 10+ years of really mediocre at best Januaries. By February, I don't really care as much anymore as I'll be in Austria for my birthday next year. As long as we don't get a +NAO disaster, I should be fine regardless of what's going on. A cold spell in early February would just be the icing, or, well, snow on the cake.

What a fantastic post. I thoroughly enjoyed reading that. Thank you

[Bristawl Si]

A stormy, wet, fairly mild winter is my form 'horse'.

Well, overdue for a country with a Maritime climate.

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Bristle Si said:

A stormy, wet, fairly mild winter is my form 'horse'.

Well, overdue for a country with a Maritime climate.

For me, November into December will be peak unsettled this year. I can envisage a very wet spell of weather.

I do think it'll set up in a way that will result in an early 2024 SSW however.

[Don]

3 minutes ago, Bristle Si said:

A stormy, wet, fairly mild winter is my form 'horse'.

Well, overdue for a country with a Maritime climate.

We do not want a 2013/14 repeat!

[Bristawl Si]

6 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

For me, November into December will be peak unsettled this year. I can envisage a very wet spell of weather.

I do think it'll set up in a way that will result in an early 2024 SSW however.

I wouldnt have a scooby.

[Frigid]

Honestly, I don't know what to think about Winter 23/24. So many conflicting signals makes me think it'll probably be mixed.. a bit like 2014/15

But there a part of me that feels like this winter will be special, perhaps a classic.. Ideally I'd want to see a cold January as that's where the best of the cold can occur, we are long overdue a cold February too. Heck, can all the winter months just be cold and seasonal.. for once 

[Polar Maritime]

47 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

For me, November into December will be peak unsettled this year. I can envisage a very wet spell of weather.

I do think it'll set up in a way that will result in an early 2024 SSW however.

Hopefully the stormy weather will help.

[SqueakheartLW]

11 hours ago, Don said:

We do not want a 2013/14 repeat!

We don't really want a repeat of any of the winters from 2013/14 onwards to be fair. Although 2017/18 had the beast, 2020/21 had a few on/off moments and December 2022 had the early cold there has been little proper winter weather outside of these.

However much I'd love to see a 1962/63 winter just so I could experience it I'd be surprised if we came anywhere close to this. A 2009/10 or 1995/96 repeat would be nice however or another December 2010. The Christmas to New Year period from 1996/97 would also be good to see again.

I certainly don't want a 2013/14, 2015/16, 2019/20 or a 2021/22 repeat. All of these winters were dire in similar ways and very devoid of anything cold or snowy. Don't know which of these winters is the worst one.

[SqueakheartLW]

12 hours ago, Bristle Si said:

A stormy, wet, fairly mild winter is my form 'horse'.

Well, overdue for a country with a Maritime climate.

"Well overdue" in a country where Atlantic zonal pattern is the default setup. I'd hardly call this pattern overdue when 2013/14, 2015/16, 2019/20 and 2021/22 were variations on this default pattern and we haven't had a decent cold and/or snowy winter since 2012/13.

I'd probably say we are well overdue a cold and snowy winter.

[daz_4]

I have no confidence in those pretty analogues showing negative east based NAO. It has become clear in the last ten years that no matter the starting conditions, the end result is pretty much the same over Europe with exception of odd month or few weeks here and there. This I believe will be even more apparent this year. There is so much heat in the system. We will have fourth consecutive month with record warm anomaly that will beat the previous record by a huge margin. The oceans are extremely warm which will certainly not help. Even average winter relative to 91-20 normal would be a huge surprise to me.

 

[poleup]

2 hours ago, daz_4 said:

I have no confidence in those pretty analogues showing negative east based NAO. It has become clear in the last ten years that no matter the starting conditions, the end result is pretty much the same over Europe with exception of odd month or few weeks here and there. This I believe will be even more apparent this year. There is so much heat in the system. We will have fourth consecutive month with record warm anomaly that will beat the previous record by a huge margin. The oceans are extremely warm which will certainly not help. Even average winter relative to 91-20 normal would be a huge surprise to me.

 

I understand your skepticism about predictive capabilities.

[Chesil View]

All this talk of anomolously high Sea temps tends to assume the winds will be westerly or south-westerly all winter.

Should we get a spell of cold easterly winds, a notably warm Atlantic would not be that relevant apart perhaps from throwing even more moisture to rise up over the very cold air and condense into that white stuff in a battle ground/stalling front scenario. Whilst a notably warm north sea would create greater convective activity for Lake effect snowfall in  Eastern areas

Every cloud ........

Edited September 22, 2023 by Chesil View

[Don]

8 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

We don't really want a repeat of any of the winters from 2013/14 onwards to be fair. Although 2017/18 had the beast, 2020/21 had a few on/off moments and December 2022 had the early cold there has been little proper winter weather outside of these.

However much I'd love to see a 1962/63 winter just so I could experience it I'd be surprised if we came anywhere close to this. A 2009/10 or 1995/96 repeat would be nice however or another December 2010. The Christmas to New Year period from 1996/97 would also be good to see again.

I certainly don't want a 2013/14, 2015/16, 2019/20 or a 2021/22 repeat. All of these winters were dire in similar ways and very devoid of anything cold or snowy. Don't know which of these winters is the worst one.

True, but I would bite one's hand off to get a 2017/18 and 2020/21 repeat, which just goes to show how awful our winters have been in the last 10 years!

As for the worst of the bad winters you mention, I would have to give that to 2013/14.

[blizzard81]

The models for the end of September look similar to those of end of September 1962. Especially that core PV over north eastern Siberia. 

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The models for the end of September look similar to those of end of September 1962. Especially that core PV over north eastern Siberia. 

And this year. 

[SqueakheartLW]

CFS 9 monthly 12z

A back loaded winter showing up on the CFS 9 monthly 12z today. Takes until February to get going then it delivers several times.

It even delivers right into April 2024 too

CFS 9 monthly 18z

A nice cold Christmas 2023 showing up here

Turns annoyingly mild during January 2024 but the cold is back in February

It even continues on into March 2024

Well worth looking at this 18z run. Almost 6 weeks of continuous cold and at times snowy conditions from early Feb 2024 to mid March 2024.

Edited September 22, 2023 by SqueakheartLW

[Don]

20 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

And this year. 

Interesting but I think the 62/63 dream has sailed.

[SummerShower]

21 hours ago, Bristle Si said:

A stormy, wet, fairly mild winter is my form 'horse'.

Well, overdue for a country with a Maritime climate.

The only truly stormy winters I remember were 89/90 and 13/14 (from start to finish aanyway - other winters have had small periods of storminess of course). 

If we can't have cold and snowy then my second choice would be a winter with many gales (but without the destruction and flooding etc) for some real weather interest.

[blizzard81]

42 minutes ago, Don said:

Interesting but I think the 62/63 dream has sailed.

What I find interesting is that for all the popular talk that we are in unchartered territory, sst's being so warm all over the world, etc etc but yet we see from the archives that the actual synoptics are eerily similar. The best bit of course is that the very favourable comparison is with 1962, which makes it even more interesting. 

[damianslaw]

One thing I look for as we move further into Autumn is the extent to which the atlantic trough moves through and into scandi.. right now, though very early in the season we have an outlook showing the trough coming unstuck, spinning in on itself and not breaking east.

When you need to sit up is when a low pressure dives SE through uk into central europe.. I remember early Nov 09 did this, and whilst rest of the month was very wet and mild, the trough never broke through clean.. i.e. split energy occuring as troughs deepen and stretch on themselves. I can certainly see deep trough development this Autumn aided by El Nino and warm SSTs sharpening the trough.

Just something to look out for. 

Edited September 22, 2023 by damianslaw

[Uncertainty]

On 21/09/2023 at 21:48, CryoraptorA303 said:

I'm liking the signals so far. September ECM seasonals going for strong east-based -NAO in January and similar in February. With the strong El Nino and -QBO this would make sense; I think the relative lack of back-ended winters in the last 10 years has really not helped us, among the other factors at play here. The best winters (1708/09, 1894/95, 62/63, 86/87) all start on a relatively rubbish note with a delayed autumn period going into December, before the fun starts around Christmas or new year and Jan-Feb is an absolute classic. Front-ended winters can be very intense in December with the extremely low insolation, but almost always burn out by the new year and give way to an early spring. 20/21 was a failed attempt at a back-ended classic, while 09/10 couldn't decide whether it was a cold Christmas or a back-ended belter and we ended up with a cold, but not exceptional winter in the end. 15/16 was extremely back-ended, but on the global stage of the strongest El Nino event on record and other less than favourable phases of oscillations, ambient temperatures were simply FAR too high to allow for anything cold to really set in until we were well into spring and it didn't matter at that point. The front-ended winters when they have happened have performed a lot better with December 2010 and 2022 both delivering some powerful cold spells (one MUCH more powerful than the other) but expectedly giving up by new years. The only real exception to this is 2011/12 which was a total waste of time aside from the February 2012 cold snap, which is one of the most memorable blasts in recent memory and surely the last good February (2018 and 2021 are NOT contenders) up to the present. I exclude 2018 as the cold plummet only came right at the end, and 2017/18 had been otherwise a waste of time.  February 21 doesn't need an explanation - the snow was nice while it lasted, but the last two weeks of that February were a disaster.

The best winters aside from 62/63 would appear to happen during El Nino events. This may be counterintuitive, as La Nina is the cooler phase of ENSO, but during La Nina, the jet stream will generally be stronger, and so we are less likely to get stuck under a cold system. Nino generally makes the jet stream significantly weaker, and getting stuck above a southerly jet stream is considerably more likely. It should also be mentioned that El Nino can encourage a SSW, which if this is of the 'split' type, is likely to lead to -NAO conditions in Europe. This is generally the phase of NAO you want for colder winter weather, unless it's a west-based -NAO, which will do the opposite, unless it's really far west like in December 2010 or 2022, in which case some shenanigans can happen and the cold air seeps in anyway.

For some examples, 86/87 happened during a moderate-strong Nino (I forget exactly how strong), and to boot, it was after a double Nina the year before, which may suggest some analogy with this year, us being in Nino after a triple Nina and all. The infamous trio of 39/40, 40/41 and 41/42 happened in/after a strong Nino that occurred after a Nina in 38/39. It should also be noted that the period from ~1920 to ~1937 was a time of markedly low ENSO activity, which may have contributed to the lack of severe weather events in that time in the colder half of the year (the 20s and 30s are notorious for having poor winters), as you didn't have a giant anomaly in the Pacific encouraging instability in the global weather network, which essentially meant a stable jet stream spewing garbage over Europe near-constantly. The amplitude of the returning ENSO after a long period of relative inactivity may have contributed to how severely those winters hit Europe. 09/10, while not on the same scale as the previous giants, also happened during a moderate-strong Nino after a period of Nina dominance. However, there is a trump card as 62/63 would tell you - ENSO-neutral conditions can also lead to endogenous European systems becoming much more stable, and it is this that allows for something like 62/63. Suffice to say, that won't happen this year, although expecting 62/63 to happen in any given year is ridiculous.

I do agree that September is correlated with the winter ahead of it, to some extent. Both September 1939 and 2009 were quite warm. September 2010 started off quite warm as well. September 2016 was one of the hottest on record, and 2016/17 was certainly less bad than some of the others in the 2013-2022 bracket. September 2006 being the (current - may be subject to change) hottest on record is the anomaly though, with 06/07 being one of the mildest winters on record. September 2021 was similarly also one of the hottest on record, second even, and 2021/22 was an absolute waste of time. I have no idea how 88/89 is still working out as milder than some of the horrendous extended autumns we have now experienced; surely 2019/20 beats this with how consistently horrible temperatures were? Even that aside, something like eight out of the ten mildest winters on record are now winters after 2000, and even the 'colder' winters of this century so far, which would have very likely been absolute belters pre-1980, are not even close to looking some of the classics in the eye. Even individually, January and December 2010, the coldest months of this century that brought some remarkably consistent cold temperatures, are not even the tenth coldest in the CET. February is a total no-show with no markedly cold Februaries at all in this century so far, with February 2012 having a big cold spell, but overall not being exceptional in the record. I get a bad feeling that the relative loss in amplitude in the September correlation is a symptom of climate change, and something like 2009/10 now IS the cold back-ended winter, and there's nothing better aside from the occasional 62/63 to look forward to. If our winters really are this existentially threatened, then this year is likely our last chance to have a classic, a winter worthy of looking 86/87 et al. in the eye, before our winters go extinct and we are eternally stuck with rubbish.

To give my finishing notes, January is the month I'm really gunning for this time. Let's have a giant, memorable January blast comparable to 1987 to make up for 10+ years of really mediocre at best Januaries. By February, I don't really care as much anymore as I'll be in Austria for my birthday next year. As long as we don't get a +NAO disaster, I should be fine regardless of what's going on. A cold spell in early February would just be the icing, or, well, snow on the cake.

Yes agree with lots of this pal. Not the no more cold winters supposition though, if the pattern is right we will turn cold again. We came close in 20/21 but the low anomaly was 400 miles too far north. 18/19 a near miss also. As you rightfully said, in the 1938 they must’ve thought cold winters were a thing of the past and then boom frozen forties. Ditto 2007. 
 

Also, perhaps the cfs monthlies are backing of their +++nao for jan / feb

This was the forecast earlier in the month:

My god that’s awful

 

Now the latest

Hardly a frozen tenpest. But baby steps towards the Copernicus suite. Also more in line with eastern seaboard troughing expectations during a Nino.

Some musings on Twitter that the cfs actually has the best skill for the winter season. Probably because it always goes mild and wet and most of the time it is. 
 

If it does join the cold party for 2024 and the Copernicus models stick to their guns in October, is it… in the bag? Ha of course not, but boy does it give us a book full of tickets. 

Have to say I don’t like the fact the iod is now going really quite positive. For me I think it just reinforces the mild and wet theme for the first half. The enso and the EQBO should take care of the strat by late Dec / early Jan. It’s got all the hallmarks of a 2009 for me. Not a 1963. But a big time wet —> cold flip. 

[Don]

3 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

What I find interesting is that for all the popular talk that we are in unchartered territory, sst's being so warm all over the world, etc etc but yet we see from the archives that the actual synoptics are eerily similar. The best bit of course is that the very favourable comparison is with 1962, which makes it even more interesting. 

Interesting indeed, but I think these days we (almost) have to expect mild/warm, but hope for different! 

[Don]

50 minutes ago, Uncertainty said:

 

The latest chart is certainly a move in the right direction with a trough over Scandinavia and the low heights over Greenland have gone.  However, high pressure to the south remains!

[blizzard81]

8 hours ago, Don said:

Interesting indeed, but I think these days we (almost) have to expect mild/warm, but hope for different! 

Absolutely mate. I agree entirely.