Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts

[Redbull165]

3 hours ago, jules216 said:

The spatial distribution of this EL Nino is much more like canonical events of 1982/83,1997/98 or 2006/07. Sometimes its funny to read some American hopefulls talking about Modoki. Its like every autumn when you arrive at same time people always looking for what they desire to see,not reality

The ENSO area around 1+2 is cooling consistently in the last few weeks.  The warming is going more towards 3.4 area. Also SOI (Southern Oscillation) index in the last few days is actually on the positive side. 

 

I see quite a big chance for central based (hybrid) el nino developing, towards the second part of the winter. But just my opinion of course.

Glosea SST prediction. I am still waiting for a new update now in november. 

 

 

 

Different types of El nino events.

 

 

Edited November 1, 2023 by Redbull165

[Don]

2 minutes ago, Redbull165 said:

 

2006-2007 was a strong La nina event, not El nino.

 

Winter 2006/07 was a weak to moderate El Nino.

[Redbull165]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Winter 2006/07 was a weak to moderate El Nino.

My mistake, I already deleted the post, right after you posted. 

Edited November 1, 2023 by Redbull165

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

I keep getting this all day when trying to log in or is it just me? 

[Jacob]

46 minutes ago, Redbull165 said:

The ENSO area around 1+2 is cooling consistently in the last few weeks.  The warming is going more towards 3.4 area. Also SOI (Southern Oscillation) index in the last few days is actually on the positive side. 

 

I see quite a big chance for central based (hybrid) el nino developing, towards the second part of the winter. But just my opinion of course.

Glosea SST prediction. I am still waiting for a new update now in november. 

 

 

 

Different types of El nino events.

 

 

Does this mean better chances of snow in winter? 

[SqueakheartLW]

1 hour ago, Jacob said:

Does this mean better chances of snow in winter? 

In theory it should be better for our snow chances if we get those warm anomalies away from NINO 1+2 and to a lesser extent NINO 3 as well but knowing how things are for us in the UK these days any kind of ENSO won't make a blind bit of difference anymore.

[Don]

Just now, SqueakheartLW said:

In theory it should be better for our snow chances if we get those warm anomalies away from NINO 1+2 and to a lesser extent NINO 3 as well but knowing how things are for us in the UK these days any kind of ENSO won't make a blind bit of difference anymore.

Knowing how things are for us in the UK these days, ENSO, IOD, solar activity, QBO, North Atlantic Tripole, Eurasian snow cover and goodness knows what won't make a blind bit of difference to our winter anymore!  

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Knowing how things are for us in the UK these days, ENSO, IOD, solar activity, QBO, North Atlantic Tripole, Eurasian snow cover and goodness knows what won't make a blind bit of difference to our winter anymore!  

The way this year has behaved I wouldn't be surprised to see winter 23/24 throw out at least one very severe freezing spell and balmy spell!

[blizzard81]

13 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Tick tok tick tok 

awaiting cansips update ……..

Did it not update? Shock horror lol

[Don]

51 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

The way this year has behaved I wouldn't be surprised to see winter 23/24 throw out at least one very severe freezing spell and balmy spell!

I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see winter 2023/24 throw out at least one balmy spell, but not sure about a severe freeze?!

[CryoraptorA303]

34 minutes ago, Don said:

I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see winter 2023/24 throw out at least one balmy spell, but not sure about a severe freeze?!

I doubt that it won't, but it'll likely be very brief compared to any autumn/springlike spells. The globe is ridiculously hot right now and any cold spell is relying on the laws of physics (every reaction has an equal and opposite reaction) to even exist. I sincerely hope we do get a nice, long cold spell with two feet of snow in the southeast, but global trends suggest that it's just not going to happen for any prolonged period of time. Mild or outright warm periods are more likely to be sustained and extreme right now, and probably for the foreseeable future, to the detriment of our winters.

[blizzard81]

10 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

I doubt that it won't, but it'll likely be very brief compared to any autumn/springlike spells. The globe is ridiculously hot right now and any cold spell is relying on the laws of physics (every reaction has an equal and opposite reaction) to even exist. I sincerely hope we do get a nice, long cold spell with two feet of snow in the southeast, but global trends suggest that it's just not going to happen for any prolonged period of time. Mild or outright warm periods are more likely to be sustained and extreme right now, and probably for the foreseeable future, to the detriment of our winters.

I remember people on this forum saying exactly the same back in 2006/07 etc. Then 09/10 happened. Then in quick succession Dec 10. I think think there could be some deja vu about to surface. 

[Don]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I remember people on this forum saying exactly the same back in 2006/07 etc. Then 09/10 happened. Then in quick succession Dec 10. I think think there could be some deja vu about to surface. 

Yes, I remember that too, but GW has advanced further since then.  However, that by no means rules anything out.

[CryoraptorA303]

5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I remember people on this forum saying exactly the same back in 2006/07 etc. Then 09/10 happened. Then in quick succession Dec 10. I think think there could be some deja vu about to surface. 

Maybe, but those events were truly exceptional. Pre 1980 they would've been some of the coldest winters on record. I do hope you're right about this but this time I doubt we're going to get a sudden return of winter in this country. Each time we get once in a decade/multidecadal winter that is seemingly a 'return to real winter' will be weaker than the last.

Edited November 1, 2023 by CryoraptorA303

[damianslaw]

7 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

Maybe, but those events were truly exceptional. Pre 1980 they would've been some of the coldest winters on record. I do hope you're right about this but this time I doubt we're going to get a sudden return of winter in this country. Each time we get once in a decade/multidecadal winter that is seemingly a 'return to real winter' will be weaker than the last.

Whilst not prolonged or what you could describe as severe freeze, last winter pulled out a 10 day notable cold spell 8-18 Dec, on a level perhaps only achieved since Dec 10, once, in Feb 2012, correct if wrong. That spell came without a SSW.

[CryoraptorA303]

Just now, damianslaw said:

Whilst not prolonged or what you could describe as severe freeze, last winter pulled out a 10 day notable cold spell 8-18 Dec, on a level perhaps only achieved since Dec 10, once, in Feb 2012, correct if wrong. That spell came without a SSW.

Very true, that one was a significant event in the SE, at least in the context of the present day. I was lucky enough to be in Kent where we managed to get some lake effect snowfall from the cold, dry air. The last time we had that snowcover was BFTE 2018. However, in the past, hot summers often came accompanied with cold winters, and 2022 certainly had been a very hot and dry summer. Overall the cold event was nowhere near the magnitude of the hot event of that year, and didn't even look Feb 2012 or December 2010 in the eye, let alone the classics of the 80s and before. We are at a high latitude - A cold pattern will mean cold weather. However, it seems that it is very quickly becoming very hard to have a prolonged cold spell at our latitude in Europe. We recorded the coldest temperature in London since 2010 last winter - Big deal, Gatwick regularly recorded <-5C in winter before the 90s. The winters of the turn of the decade were indeed significant, but they didn't look all-time classics in the eye - Had they occurred before 1980, they would've been some of the coldest, if not outright coldest winters on record. Obviously you will still get the occasional decent winter, but it's becoming a lot rarer, very quickly.

[damianslaw]

4 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

Very true, that one was a significant event in the SE, at least in the context of the present day. I was lucky enough to be in Kent where we managed to get some lake effect snowfall from the cold, dry air. The last time we had that snowcover was BFTE 2018. However, in the past, hot summers often came accompanied with cold winters, and 2022 certainly had been a very hot and dry summer. Overall the cold event was nowhere near the magnitude of the hot event of that year, and didn't even look Feb 2012 or December 2010 in the eye, let alone the classics of the 80s and before. We are at a high latitude - A cold pattern will mean cold weather. However, it seems that it is very quickly becoming very hard to have a prolonged cold spell at our latitude in Europe. We recorded the coldest temperature in London since 2010 last winter - Big deal, Gatwick regularly recorded <-5C in winter before the 90s. The winters of the turn of the decade were indeed significant, but they didn't look all-time classics in the eye - Had they occurred before 1980, they would've been some of the coldest, if not outright coldest winters on record. Obviously you will still get the occasional decent winter, but it's becoming a lot rarer, very quickly.

Coming on the back of the exceptional heat of summer 2022 and a very warm autumn, seeing the degree of cold in  Dec 2022, gives some hope at least. A similiar synoptic a month or two later would have brought notable cold, probably as good as we could have expected given the circumstances. 

We achieved a run of 4 ice days, something not achieved since Dec 2010. 

Edited November 1, 2023 by damianslaw

[summer blizzard]

49 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I remember people on this forum saying exactly the same back in 2006/07 etc. Then 09/10 happened. Then in quick succession Dec 10. I think think there could be some deja vu about to surface. 

Those of us still around from back then may remember a great member called Stratos Feric who solidly explained why statistically, 3C was our new floor. Just before the winter of 08/09. Sadly he's not been around since.

35 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Whilst not prolonged or what you could describe as severe freeze, last winter pulled out a 10 day notable cold spell 8-18 Dec, on a level perhaps only achieved since Dec 10, once, in Feb 2012, correct if wrong. That spell came without a SSW.

Feb 12 was the result of a failed SSW attempt in January. A bit like the late Jan warming this year was enough to change the pattern for Feb, that was enough to give a cold thump in anotherwise pretty poor winter.

[Relativistic]

50 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

Very true, that one was a significant event in the SE, at least in the context of the present day. I was lucky enough to be in Kent where we managed to get some lake effect snowfall from the cold, dry air. The last time we had that snowcover was BFTE 2018. However, in the past, hot summers often came accompanied with cold winters, and 2022 certainly had been a very hot and dry summer. Overall the cold event was nowhere near the magnitude of the hot event of that year, and didn't even look Feb 2012 or December 2010 in the eye, let alone the classics of the 80s and before. We are at a high latitude - A cold pattern will mean cold weather. However, it seems that it is very quickly becoming very hard to have a prolonged cold spell at our latitude in Europe. We recorded the coldest temperature in London since 2010 last winter - Big deal, Gatwick regularly recorded <-5C in winter before the 90s. The winters of the turn of the decade were indeed significant, but they didn't look all-time classics in the eye - Had they occurred before 1980, they would've been some of the coldest, if not outright coldest winters on record. Obviously you will still get the occasional decent winter, but it's becoming a lot rarer, very quickly.

I think you're understating December 2022 a little. Ten consecutive subzero daily CET means is quite rare; easily outdid 2012.

See this thread for historical comparisons:

 

Edited November 2, 2023 by Relativistic

[jules216]

13 hours ago, Redbull165 said:

The ENSO area around 1+2 is cooling consistently in the last few weeks.  The warming is going more towards 3.4 area. Also SOI (Southern Oscillation) index in the last few days is actually on the positive side. 

 

I see quite a big chance for central based (hybrid) el nino developing, towards the second part of the winter. But just my opinion of course.

Glosea SST prediction. I am still waiting for a new update now in november. 

 

 

 

Different types of El nino events.

 

 

Dont look at tropical tidbits site it has the ENSO far too cold. The temperature distributions are far more close related to 1982/83, 1997/98 and 2006/07 then Modoki winters that correlated with more cold in Western Europe. Also its a strong Nino borderline Super Nino not moderate. 

[kold weather]

December 2022 cold spell was very impressive indeed, I did some research into the CET which I've sadly forgotten about now but that spell ranks very highly even against the cold spells of the 80s, etc, but for most it lacked the snow required to elevate it into a more memorable spell.

December 2022 also highlights another issue though. Because we are so globally warm odds are if you do get a snapback to milder conditions, those milder temperatures will have more punch and lift the CET beyond what you'd expect. December 2022 still came in fairly cold in the CET zone, especially against recent long term means, however we were on 0.4c on the 17th, so to end up above 3c come months end is quite the warm up.

Edited November 2, 2023 by kold weather

[Frigid]

16 minutes ago, kold weather said:

December 2022 cold spell was very impressive indeed, I did some research into the CET which I've sadly forgotten about now but that spell ranks very highly even against the cold spells of the 80s, etc, but for most it lacked the snow required to elevate it into a more memorable spell.

December 2022 also highlights another issue though. Because we are so globally warm odds are if you do get a snapback to milder conditions, those milder temperatures will have more punch and lift the CET beyond what you'd expect. December 2022 still came in fairly cold in the CET zone, especially against recent long term means, however we were on 0.4c on the 17th, so to end up above 3c come months end is quite the warm up.

More impressively, is that it came right after a record breaking mild Oct-Nov. IIRC, models around the 17th Dec hinted at another cold plunge at months end which could've landed the month as one of the coldest on record. 2022 was a year of extremes.. 38C and -10C all in the same year. 

Edited November 2, 2023 by Frigid

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, Frigid said:

More impressively, is that it came right after a record breaking mild Oct-Nov. IIRC, models around the 17th Dec hinted at another cold plunge at months end which could've landed the month as one of the coldest on record. 2022 was a year of extremes.. 38C and -10C all in the same year. 

I think what it shows is that we can clearly still get pretty impressive cold spells and I've no doubt we can get severe cold months, even allowing a 1-2c warmer world, we should still be capable of getting a sub zero month. I do however think December 2022 was slightly unique in that the cold was basically totally homegrown, so we saw very little modification of the air over the warmer than normal waters, since it basically stagnated in place overland. Most cold months will see a synoptic shift at some point that introduces new airflows that inevitably get moderated warmer than usual by the warmer than normal waters. That didn't happen at all in that 15 day cold period in December 2022.

The other problem is we require a more intense synoptic set-up to end up getting the same result as we used to. So a strong cold spell may have needed a 1 in 10/20 year set-up, now might require a 1 in 30/40 year set-up to get the equivalent. It can still happen, particularly in short bursts, it just takes a more impressive evolution to get to that point.

[Chesil View]

This page has been an Interesting read. The demise of snow/ice and winter weather in general in the UK has often been  announced only for the 'experts' to be proved wrong. Most notably Dr David Viner in the year 2000 and his comments about snow in southernEngland being a thing of the past.

There is no don't doubt that climate change has moved the goal posts in terms of how often we get wintry conditions in lowland Britain

But it is worth remembering that the source regions of our genuinely cold/snowy spells of weather although having warmed along with the rest of world are still desperately cold in the winter season and will continue to be way beyond any of our lifetimes and when the stars align as in 2009/10 or December 2010 or Feb/Mar 2018 then severe cold and snow can still very much be a part of compendium of weather. Maybe not as often as us winter lovers would like but never the less the in the right set up the threat is there and will continue to be for many years to come.

[damianslaw]

10 hours ago, Relativistic said:

I think you're understating December 2022 a little. Ten consecutive subzero daily CET means is quite rare; easily outdid 2012.

See this thread for historical comparisons:

 

Yes wasn't sure if Dec 22 beat Feb 12, it did. As said whilst not up there with significant cold events, it was notable in these warming times. Reference to 'without a SSW', relates to Dec 22.

As mentioned the UK can produce homegrown cold, with pressure high over it, don't need very cold uppers, much as often happens late spring/early summer. 

Edited November 2, 2023 by damianslaw