Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Just now, Azazel said:

Yeah that’s the problem - we haven’t had even convective showers here. I saw some towering cumulus way to the north on one day in the last few months. I can’t describe how poor it’s been here for anything remotely interesting since May. 
 

I was excited about the potential of the squall but it just doesn’t look that impressive on radar with most of the energy remaining offshore - and even then, all this mid level cloud would make it impossible to see anything. 

Just looked on the Shanklin cam (it moves about unfortunately) but the stuff in the channel doesn’t look particularly remarkable. Lots of the elevated lightning will be lost to the sun. Later is likely to be more interesting

[pinball wizard]

Met office warning just out for east midlands, east anglia, south east and bits of central southern england. Risk of thunderstorms and heavy rain etc between 13.00 sunday to 06z monday

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2023-09-17&id=10d01559-8ad2-46e5-85e7-796e67e722f0

Edited September 17, 2023 by pinball wizard

[ChannelThunder]

44 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

Just heard a distant rumble however tonnes of low level cloud will obstruct the view of any lightning. 

Glad it's not just me RE the low cloud all over the shop. Looks anything but convective out there!

[Tamsin]

49 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

This first lot will be a squall - by its very nature it will be fairly short-lived at any single location… because it is a squall and that’s what they do.

...

Depends on the angle! 

[Alderc 2.0]

20 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

A lot of people seem to think see live in the US. Unfortunately, we have to deal with the hand we're dealt. Do the best with what we've got. 

Some of us are/were used to pretty regular lightning shows in summer, the last few years has been devoid of large MCS structures moving in from the channel so nothing to do with thinking we live in the US, just have memories longer than than 3/4 of the members of this forum have been alive. 

[Mapantz]

Over 140 strikes detected for me, all from the channel, of course. Rain intensity increasing slowly.

[LightningLover]

2 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

Some of us are/were used to pretty regular lightning shows in summer, the last few years has been devoid of large MCS structures moving in from the channel so nothing to do with thinking we live in the US, just have memories longer than than 3/4 of the members of this forum have been alive. 

I do believe July 2019 was the last proper, large, non-linear MCS that hit the Central South, or anywhere in the UK in fact!

[ChannelThunder]

2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Over 140 strikes detected for me, all from the channel, of course. Rain intensity increasing slowly.

Yep, lightning and rain actually increasing slightly on approach, for once!

[Azazel]

Just now, LightningLover said:

I do believe July 2019 was the last proper, large, non-linear MCS that hit the Central South, or anywhere in the UK in fact!

I remember it well 

[Harry]

Just had a very eerie yellow hue in the sky here in north Kent!

[Eagle Eye]

3 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

Some of us are/were used to pretty regular lightning shows in summer, the last few years has been devoid of large MCS structures moving in from the channel so nothing to do with thinking we live in the US, just have memories longer than than 3/4 of the members of this forum have been alive. 

True. It's bad in a way but times change, lots of places like Lincolnshire probably getting a lot more than before. There's just been a shift that's been unlucky to you. 

[Mapantz]

It's so dark that my solar sensor is registering 0WM²

Big flash of lightning here.

[Azazel]

Metoffice video forecast keeps the CS in the game this evening 

[Snowkissedtwice]

Sat at Ferry Way in Poole watching the lightning . Sky gone very dark. 

[LightningLover]

2 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Metoffice video forecast keeps the CS in the game this evening 

Might be an outdated UKV run?

[Harsh Climate]

46 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Ah yes because we always have CAPE in excess of 1,000 J/KG. 

A lot of the time we do . Silly comment that EE.

Also not sure why you have plucked 1000J/KG+ out, today for most of midlands/sentral southern england there is generally at most 200/300 available which is pittance if your hoping for a severe storm or even a half  decent one. Like I said pop fart torrential downpours and the odd weak storm once this mess to the south clears north. 

Edited September 17, 2023 by Harsh Climate

[Mapantz]

Large convective raindrops now.

[sunnijim]

The death knell to the hopes of Southeasterners???!

UK weather warnings

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings.

 

[Eagle Eye]

2 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

A lot of the time we do . Silly comment that EE.

 

Really though? We've only had it about 8 times this year (I'm talking about widespread) , when you think about it, that's not a lot. Most of our slight risk days fall into the 500-800 J/KG category with small pockets of 1000+ J/KG. Last few years especially, 1000 J/KG has become more rare. 

Edited September 17, 2023 by Eagle Eye

[Jamie M]

Similarities to 20th July 2019 on UKV 6z 

[Mapantz]

Absolutely tanking it down!

[Harsh Climate]

1 minute ago, Eagle Eye said:

Really though? We've only had it about 8 times this year (I'm talking about widespread) , when you think about it, that's not a lot. Most of our slight risk days fall into the 500-800 J/KG category with small pockets of 1000+ J/KG. Last few years especially, 1000 J/KG has become more rare. 

Only 8 times this year?? Thatis quite considerable amount considering we might only have say 8-13 thundery outbreaks a year 

[Eagle Eye]

Just now, Mapantz said:

Absolutely tanking it down!

Live scenes from near Mapantz's house. 

4 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Only 8 times this year?? Thatis quite considerable amount considering we might only have say 8-13 thundery outbreaks a year 

This year has been an exception. Most years it's 3-5 (I'm talking since I joined. It was probably 364 in the 80s and 90s)

[Mapantz]

I'll take that..

[matt111]

Can’t see much at the moment but hearing the odd rumble now.