Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023

[wimblettben]

9 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

From all the forecasts I saw you were never really in with much of a shout. Perhaps this morning but that was fairly contentious.

 

we were in this boat last week, now 7 days later we are on the zone … it totally can happen keep faith!

I had a different impression from what I have been seeing on forecasts over the last few day's.

There has been a risk of thundery showers for here since Friday evening, just that the main intense stuff was suppose to be for today into this afternoon.

Just got to hope that we get some unexpected stuff in the next 12 or so hours now otherwise this event for here has definitely been one of our worst busts for thunderstorms.

[Azazel]

Hmmm starting to look messy and weak on it’s leading edge, all the good stuff back down towards Jersey etc 

[Alderc 2.0]

Oh dear, all sferics died off in the mid channel and only near the CI now. 

[Metwatch]

Not bad

 

Edited September 17, 2023 by Metwatch

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Just now, wimblettben said:

I had a different impression from what I have been seeing on forecasts over the last few day's.

There has been a risk of thundery showers for here since Friday evening, just that the main intense stuff was suppose to be for today into this afternoon.

Just got to hope that we get some unexpected stuff in the next 12 or so hours now otherwise this event for here has definitely been one of our worst busts for thunderstorms.

I always see your name and think Wimbledon, lol

im pretty sure wales was never really in it for tonight. Good luck though - things can and do change on a hair these days

1 minute ago, Azazel said:

Hmmm starting to look messy and weak on it’s leading edge, all the good stuff back down towards Jersey etc 

You’re just being negative for the sake of it now

[Cornishdave]

35 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

Kenton looks quite flooded as well now.

That’s a mile from my house! 
 

[Alderc 2.0]

Game over west of the IOW. 

[ChannelThunder]

Just now, Alderc 2.0 said:

Game over west of the IOW. 

I'll be lucky if it even clips Ventnor at this point 

[Lu.]

Decided to park up at Lepe Beach for a bit. It’s humid for sure 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

1 hour ago, Scuba steve said:

Stop milking it

Your such a tit!

[Aiden2012]

Can just tell it’s going to be a non event everything dies when it leaves Europe

[WeatherArc]

Much better satellite loop showing the ongoing clearing across the south, even here in birmingham it looks like the cloud is starting to thin, will watch the area along/south of the M4 corridor for potential developing convection/homegrowns over the next few  hours.

 

For you guys on the south coast i would watch the area across Brittany/Cherbourg very closely, clear skies will likely lead to further developments moving across the channel, also that storm around the channel islands.

 

[jtay]

4 minutes ago, Lu. said:

Decided to park up at Lepe Beach for a bit. It’s humid for sure 

@*Stormforce~beka* likes lepe beach.

You would have driven by my old school in Holbury.

 

[Harsh Climate]

Just now, WeatherArc said:

Much better satellite loop showing the ongoing clearing across the south, even here in birmingham it looks like the cloud is starting to thin, will watch the area along/south of the M4 corridor for potential developing convection/homegrowns over the next few  hours.

 

For you guys on the south coast i would watch the area across Brittany/Cherbourg very closely, clear skies will likely lead to further developments moving across the channel, also that storm around the channel islands.

 

Not enough CAPE or High temperatures to produce any substantial homegrown storms today. Would Have been ideal this clearance a week ago when we had these  ingredients.. 

[Sam jackson88]

Still going strong let's hope it gets even stronger

[*Stormforce~beka*]

1 hour ago, ChannelThunder said:

The storms have made a nice line for me already, I just extended it. 

It's an Andover clipper!!!!

[WeatherArc]

Just now, Harsh Climate said:

Not enough CAPE or High temperatures to produce any substantial homegrown storms today. Would Have been ideal this clearance a week ago when we had these  ingredients.. 

You never know 

haven't looked much at the cape charts i guess they are pretty meagre though, will have a look at mucape levels in a sec. 

The lack of clearance last week around our parts still gives me pain 

[Azazel]

Just now, *Stormforce~beka* said:

It's an Andover clipper!!!!

The ‘intense’ stuff is barely gaining any forward momentum. Keeps fizzling out on its northern edge

Edit - infact the stuff down in the Channel Islands is also now fizzling out lol.

very cool! 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

59 minutes ago, The Tall Weatherman said:

Have managed to put together a forecast based on the the Real time data and what is showing on the latest models. Good luck to everyone and anyone scared of missing them anywhere East of the IOW because you can expect new developments in the next 4 hours.

*SNIGGER*

[JordyB]

1 hour ago, The Tall Weatherman said:

Have managed to put together a forecast based on the the Real time data and what is showing on the latest models. Good luck to everyone and anyone scared of missing them anywhere East of the IOW because you can expect new developments in the next 4 hours.

Do like the look of that I’m towards Morecambe/heysham way in that orange zone really hoping we see something this evening ️️️

[Azazel]

Right well game over for here I would say. Gonna find something else to do with my evening. Good luck those in the east. Peace out guys  

[*Stormforce~beka*]

40 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Faint hints of a shelf there. Very nice 

Heart shaped 

It wuvs you!

[Southern Storm]

The more I look at the two areas of activity in the channel the less worried I'm becoming, as others have said, they don't appear to be eating up too much fuel, and I believe the higher CAPE levels will arrive later onto the evening 

All to play for if you ask me

[WeatherArc]

I would kill to have a few more CAMs in this part of the world, the US has the HRRR and the NAM both on Pivotal Weather,  what do we have? 

[Allseasons-Si]

Herm Island looking west towards Guernsey,live is on cam 5...

Webcams - Herm Island

WWW.HERM.COM

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THERE IS MORE TO HERM THAN MEETS THE EYE... THERE IS MORE TO HERM THAN MEETS THE EYE... THERE IS MORE TO HERM THAN MEETS THE EYE... THERE IS MORE TO HERM TH ...

 

Edited September 17, 2023 by Allseasons-si
added info