Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023

[Had Worse]

 

[StormLoser]

I thoroughly enjoyed my heavy rain and one rumble of distant thunder today. I should have known the Met Office's weather warning would be the death knell of anything fun.

There's not a lot going on for later this evening. The odd little cell puttering about doesn't exactly look promising.  Not even sure about the veracity of the current CAPE chart either. Looks to be further south to me.

 

Edited September 17, 2023 by StormLoser

[Allseasons-Si]

Rapid development's SE of the IOW.

Edit: with sferics now.

Edited September 17, 2023 by Allseasons-si

[ChannelThunder]

Gotta say, there's some pretty robust convection to my NE, over the Solent area. 

[minus10]

Is this a good sign ?

[Harsh Climate]

Just now, minus10 said:

Is this a good sign ?

No, just run of the mill cloud 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

29 minutes ago, Supacell said:

I've decided to bite the bullet and head down towards the southeast. I am not sure where I'm going yet other than south east.

You’re brave

I dunno if it’s worth it tbh as there is a decent chance we will miss out completely, although there’s also pretty good odds we will get something as it gets dark.

Which area you headed to?

[Thunders]

1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

You’re brave

I dunno if it’s worth it tbh as there is a decent chance we will miss out completely, although there’s also pretty good odds we will get something as it gets dark.

Which area you headed to?

the SE is full of surprises, people will call it a bust then we explode with activity   

[Harsh Climate]

2 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

You’re brave

I dunno if it’s worth it tbh as there is a decent chance we will miss out completely, although there’s also pretty good odds we will get something as it gets dark.

Which area you headed to?

Id head to dover, get a nice view of all the storms in the channel as they just miss Kent later.

[Cyclonic Destruction]

47 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

I agree it is. Does anyone know why the channel always kills them?

I’ve been more of an observer on here for a few years now. What amazes me is the lack of knowledge of storm chasers. Granted many want to learn, however, I’m 55 and have been studying weather since the age of 7. I started off with the Ladybook of weather followed by the Osborne weather book. Both excellent reads and it amazes me that so many cannot even read the sky. Computer models are fine but the real basics come from reading the sky, the clouds etc. Animals do and yet so many wannabe weather spotters think the latest PC run dog biscuits is the holy grail of information.

In essence start understanding the basics and one will know when a storm is approaching. The set up this morning was a joke. There was no way a storm was going to smash the south coast and yet so many got their hopes up over a computer model and yet nature said NO!

[Cain]

Am I right in saying anything that does pop off will be moving north east or staying east all together 

[CoventryWeather]

Some activity happening on the Brest Peninsula. Might be worth an eye on perhaps.

Say that, a shower has popped up near Weymouth.

[Thunders]

1 minute ago, Cyclonic Destruction said:

I’ve been more of an observer on here for a few years now. What amazes me is the lack of knowledge of storm chasers. Granted many want to learn, however, I’m 55 and have been studying weather since the age of 7. I started off with the Ladybook of weather followed by the Osborne weather book. Both excellent reads and it amazes me that so many cannot even read the sky. Computer models are fine but the real basics come from reading the sky, the clouds etc. Animals do and yet so many wannabe weather spotters think the latest PC run dog biscuits is the holy grail of information.

In essence start understanding the basics and one will know when a storm is approaching. The set up this morning was a joke. There was no way a storm was going to smash the south coast and yet so many got their hopes up over a computer model and yet nature said NO!

good thing im 13 and started with weather during 2017/2018

 

[convector]

Just now, Thunders said:

the SE is full of surprises, people will call it a bust then we explode with activity   

yeah too many losing faith, got another 5/6 hours till anythings due

[Thunders]

the British have become so desperate that they have become exited over a shower

[ChannelThunder]

Fine margins on the Guernsey cell - if it was just 10 miles to the west I'd be confident of a storm tonight. Radar looking encouraging for the SE I'd say, and the chunky congestus I mentioned to my NE can now be seen on the radar. I've lost sight of it thanks to yet more low cloud blowing around, which has been a constant today. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

6 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Is this a good sign ?

The tree is a good sign - it will provide you with oxygen.

The sky is blue, which is the right colour (if it was purple I would suggest you might have taken something funky)

The clouds, yeah a good sign too - shows that there is some moisture up there.

On the whole, not the easiest photo to analyse, but it does tell us your phone and internet is working. Sounds like you’re ready, should a storm come along

[Southern Storm]

5 minutes ago, Cyclonic Destruction said:

I’ve been more of an observer on here for a few years now. What amazes me is the lack of knowledge of storm chasers. Granted many want to learn, however, I’m 55 and have been studying weather since the age of 7. I started off with the Ladybook of weather followed by the Osborne weather book. Both excellent reads and it amazes me that so many cannot even read the sky. Computer models are fine but the real basics come from reading the sky, the clouds etc. Animals do and yet so many wannabe weather spotters think the latest PC run dog biscuits is the holy grail of information.

In essence start understanding the basics and one will know when a storm is approaching. The set up this morning was a joke. There was no way a storm was going to smash the south coast and yet so many got their hopes up over a computer model and yet nature said NO!

While to some extent you are correct, the models have been all over this convective spell for around 5 days, could you enlighten us all on how you can forecast by reading the clouds 5 days from T0, we'd all love to know !

Edited September 17, 2023 by Southern Storm

[Harry]

Just now, Thunders said:

the British have become so desperate that they have become exited over a shower

Haha!

New sferics over Brest - getting hard to know where to look! Thankfully the skies are trying to clear again here so hopefully as it starts going dark I’ll start being able to look for some flashes

[Cornishdave]

30 minutes ago, Cain said:

What an absolute bust that was pathetic is understatement 

I’m in the area where it was actually forecast and it delivered, so definitely not a bust at all. From memory most of wales wasn’t in the forecast this morning? Charts showed pretty much what actually happened, storms firing in channel moving north east up through Devon eastwards fading as they tracked north east

[CoventryWeather]

2 minutes ago, Thunders said:

the British have become so desperate that they have become exited over a shower

Made me laugh with my own quote haha! Just giving some hope to CS for a moment!

[Thunders]

1 minute ago, CoventryWeather said:

Made me laugh with my own quote haha! Just giving some hope to CS for a moment!

should i send some of the south easts luck over then, has a 50% chance of working

 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

4 minutes ago, Cyclonic Destruction said:

I’ve been more of an observer on here for a few years now. What amazes me is the lack of knowledge of storm chasers. Granted many want to learn, however, I’m 55 and have been studying weather since the age of 7. I started off with the Ladybook of weather followed by the Osborne weather book. Both excellent reads and it amazes me that so many cannot even read the sky. Computer models are fine but the real basics come from reading the sky, the clouds etc. Animals do and yet so many wannabe weather spotters think the latest PC run dog biscuits is the holy grail of information.

In essence start understanding the basics and one will know when a storm is approaching. The set up this morning was a joke. There was no way a storm was going to smash the south coast and yet so many got their hopes up over a computer model and yet nature said NO!

I dunno, there is a lot of frontal activity going on and with elevated setups things are less clear.

Another thing is that I’ve lost count of how many times the skies have looked classically ‘primed’ - but sweet fizzy alligator has actually happened.

This morning looked fairly good, there was a chance forcings would have given us a decent squall, but in the end it was only rain. However, it was utterly torrential

[Mapantz]

8 minutes ago, Cyclonic Destruction said:

There was no way a storm was going to smash the south coast and yet so many got their hopes up over a computer model and yet nature said NO!

There was thunder & lightning here this morning.

Whilst it wasn't a classic, a pigeon putting it's wing over it's head isn't going to tell you that.

[Thunderspotter]

6 minutes ago, Cyclonic Destruction said:

I’ve been more of an observer on here for a few years now. What amazes me is the lack of knowledge of storm chasers. Granted many want to learn, however, I’m 55 and have been studying weather since the age of 7. I started off with the Ladybook of weather followed by the Osborne weather book. Both excellent reads and it amazes me that so many cannot even read the sky. Computer models are fine but the real basics come from reading the sky, the clouds etc. Animals do and yet so many wannabe weather spotters think the latest PC run dog biscuits is the holy grail of information.

In essence start understanding the basics and one will know when a storm is approaching. The set up this morning was a joke. There was no way a storm was going to smash the south coast and yet so many got their hopes up over a computer model and yet nature said NO!

I started a few years ago. 16 now, and I don't mindlessly predict storms as I used to! I'm still a bit rusty and learning lots but I think it's a start. I remember when I hated thunderstorms, but after my brother told me some facts about lightning, it sparked my obsession with them.

Anyway, back to storm chasing... I don't think it's worth me staying up tonight, and school tomorrow means my brain will die if i don't sleep lol.

Good luck to everyone out tracking and chasing storms tonight!