Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

[IDO]

12 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

I hope you are not posting D10 ECM charts!

However, there does seem to be the possibility of temporary cold flow around that period, see GFS:

Though GEM pushes Euro heights north to interfere with that scenario:

[carinthian]

Looks like the models are starting to a show a gentle squeeze on the milder interludes as the darker days draw nearer. Nice to see this in reverse for a change !

C

[tight isobar]

Things on a grander scale “ certainly grabbing the attention this morning “! Some start point - position block formats- along with now clustering drop line ensembles… Always a good start for cold transfer… we’ll see what the rest of the days suites start drawing up b4 buyin a ticket for the rollercoaster !! Keep watching!.         A mix n match of the Canadian/ euro/ American model/ ensembles..

[NewEra21]

Starting to look more interesting for a weeks time, but how often have we seen charts like this gradually slip eastwards leaving us in no man’s land.

Signs of promise, but we need to keep our feet on the ground!

Edited November 12, 2023 by NewEra21
Spelling

[January Snowstorm]

Is there a netweather winter forecast this year?

Charts do look interesting in weeks time. GEM also on board!!

[Mike Poole]

There’s an awful lot of uncertainty in the ensembles at the moment, here’s the spread on the EPS at T240:

The whole of the ‘left’ side of the NH seemingly up for grabs.  Here’s the clusters at T192-T240:

There certainly could be an Atlantic ridge or Greenland ridge (clusters 1 and 2), but many other possibilities.  Skipping to T360, and the clusters look like this:

You’d hardly credit that these were run from (approximately) the same starting point, they are so different!  All four border colours represented.  But there are some very interesting individual members in the mix by T360:

[bluearmy]

I’m now awake 

shovel at the ready !

very intriguing eps suite 

the tpv splitting beyond day 8 has certainly grabbed my attention. A n pacific ridge seems responsible in the main and if we get a rise towards greeny to time correctly (which doesn’t seem impossible)) then the last week of November could get v interesting indeed if the cold jigsaw pieces fall for us 

[January Snowstorm]

In the meantime we have our next Storm, Storm Debi named by Met Eireann for early tomorrow morning!

[northwestsnow]

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I’m now awake 

shovel at the ready !

very intriguing eps suite 

the tpv splitting beyond day 8 has certainly grabbed my attention. A n pacific ridge seems responsible in the main and if we get a rise towards greeny to time correctly (which doesn’t seem impossible)) then the last week of November could get v interesting indeed if the cold jigsaw pieces fall for us 

No mention from Exeter and no backing from ec46 for anything other than Atlantic muck Nick.

I'll keep an eye on today's update and of course ec46 later but I'm extremely sceptical at this point.

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

No mention from Exeter and no backing from ec46 for anything other than Atlantic muck Nick.

I'll keep an eye on today's update and of course ec46 later but I'm extremely sceptical at this point.

Todays long range met will not change! Only seems to update a couple of times per working week…..

[Sceptical]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

No mention from Exeter and no backing from ec46 for anything other than Atlantic muck Nick.

I'll keep an eye on today's update and of course ec46 later but I'm extremely sceptical at this point.

I'm also Sceptical  

Edited November 12, 2023 by Sceptical

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

No mention from Exeter and no backing from ec46 for anything other than Atlantic muck Nick.

I'll keep an eye on today's update and of course ec46 later but I'm extremely sceptical at this point.

Looks like approx 20% on the clusters 

the 46 has an Aleutian ridge but no corresponding Atlantic feature 

tough to get a 101 ens member to go big on wintry patterns in any case 

[sheikhy]

And once again but this time ecm looking colder 10 days from now!!!

[Mucka]

Who needs coffee with ECM 10 day charts like that?

Interesting...

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Who needs coffee with ECM 10 day charts like that?

Interesting...

It's a beaut 

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Who needs coffee with ECM 10 day charts like that?

Interesting...

Steer clear of the control then - you may not sleep tonight ! 
 

but seriously - no one is predicting deep winter before months end but as mused a few days ago, we may be on the cusp of the first chase of the season 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Steer clear of the control then - you may not sleep tonight ! 
 

but seriously - no one is predicting deep winter before months end but as mused a few days ago, we may be on the cusp of the first chase of the season 

With the final score nearly always a defeat the chase still draws us in

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Don't look now but the Easter bunny is landing in the TPV!

Mid Atlantic Heights making a push for Greenland and it would be well hello Winter,come too papa...

And don't get to downbeat over met updates...firstly the Summer forecasts were appaling and secondly you will find a completely different write up every several days or so! They will want concrete evidence and for it to come up and bite em on the @rse before going all in on a cold snap.

Happy Sunday folks and even happier hunting.. the chase is primed.

[TSNWK]

Where’s this chilly uk high heading 

[bluearmy]

My eye was also caught by the gfs 00z op run later week 2 where the descending strengthening spv seemed to be repelled back by trop activity  

of course late week 2 gfs trop data is unlikely to be correct so we need to see if this repeats over runs. 
 

any promising trop patterns could easily be scuppered by a descending spv which we know is happening  

[cyclonic happiness]

another exciting week of weather coming up. That storm on Thursdays, looks pretty serious for the Midlands and South!!

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

another exciting week of weather coming up. That storm on Thursdays, looks pretty serious for the Midlands and South!!

Yeah certainly does I’ve got goggles on this evolve! As I’m now bouncing home2 home between north oxfordshire-border cotswalds)-And south East - Uxbridge. So I’m hoping for “ maybe a winter of greed in both geographicals.I’ll try to roam where the weather suites through this coming season

Edited November 12, 2023 by tight isobar

[LRD]

Shock, horror - is this a foggy, frosty high I see before me?

It'll no doubt be gone in 6 hours 

[LRD]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

No mention from Exeter and no backing from ec46 for anything other than Atlantic muck Nick.

I'll keep an eye on today's update and of course ec46 later but I'm extremely sceptical at this point.

Agreed. The MetO's wording specifically rules out cold between now and mid-Dec. They don't usually word things like that. I mean Glosea, etc could be wrong I suppose but they sound very confident

[LRD]

15 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Where’s this chilly uk high heading 

Nowhere!