Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

[Sweatyman]

17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Don't bother looking at EC46,it's awful.

i never do

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Sweatyman said:

i never do

That's fair enough   I'm not convinced with it myself although I'd prefer it to show something easier on the eye 

[Mike Poole]

14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Don't bother looking at EC46,it's awful.

I have concerns over the ECM 46 because, I believe it now is not on the back of the EPS to day 15 but is a whole separate suite of 100 run at lower resolution - much lower resolution.  36km instead of 9km for the op.  And remember that all of this evolution hinges on getting the behaviour of a low or lows in the Atlantic right early doors - which then opens or shuts the door to heights over Greenland.  If the op runs are struggling with this, and the whole hemisphere pattern seems to hinge on it, how is the 46 going to fare?  Not well - I’m inclined to bin the whole thing until the situation re the Atlantic ridge is resolved.

[bluearmy]

21 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Don't bother looking at EC46,it's awful.

Not a surprise 

This is 20/27 mean heights on the 46 and eps. (The gefs aren’t that different )

       

 

but week 2

  
 

now the 46 is a different animal this winter. It used to run on the back of the eps day 15. But now it runs from day one at a lower resolution but with double the number of members. So we are now going to see whether it’s week 3 is of any use. It used to be a decent tool for week 3 running off the back of the eps. 

but the eps for 27/4th is different to our east with the trough. If the ec46 catches up over the next few days then you’d have to question the new structure. 

 

Edited November 19, 2023 by bluearmy

[Dunstable Snow]

7 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

I hope the mods don't mind this but I would like to share something personal - After 8 years battling dementia, my sweet loving mum passed away last night. Her suffering is now at an end and she is at peace ❤❤❤ xxx

My condolences to you and your family. It is a horrible disease that impacts massively on everyone close to the person suffering from the disease. 
 

My wife passed away from frontal temporal dementia at the age of 56 last year so I know and understand your pain and that of everyone else who has somebody close who has suffered from or is suffering with the disease. 
 

I am very relieved that the suffering for her has gone, as you are for your mum and I do my best to remember all the good times and my beautiful, loving, caring wife when she was well. I’m sure you have many such memories of your mum that will give you joy and comfort in the weeks, months and years to come..

[WYorksWeather]

7 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

I hope the mods don't mind this but I would like to share something personal - After 8 years battling dementia, my sweet loving mum passed away last night. Her suffering is now at an end and she is at peace ❤❤❤ xxx

Would like to add my condolences as well.

[Frosty.]

This is a very decent mean from the GEFS 12z in the not too distant future and some good perts for sure..if you’re a coldie!.. this would be a Brucie bonus as it’s not even winter yet!..hope the models continue to play their cards right! ️ 

Edited November 19, 2023 by Frosty.

[WYorksWeather]

Generally, ECM is favouring something a little below average for London, and a bit more pronounced further north. The key question seems to be about how far south any cold incursion gets, and how long it hangs around. Of note is that the proper cold spell the ECM OP shows at days 9 and 10 seems to be an outlier.

[Cambrian]

There are interesting trends in the EPS itself, even in the relatively short term.

Here, at the edge of the reliable at day 6, last 5 relevant runs for Saturday 6am - 0z, 12z yesterday, 0z, 6z, 12z today. With each run, heights to the southwest show a more notable build northwestward. Better handling of that low over Morocco. Most eye-catching, the hook of low heights into Greenland of yesterday replaced with a strong ridge. 

    

Heights modelled further west over the UK and Ireland and the trough further west too. The contour lines running out of Iceland more and more into the north. The GFS is far from on its own in the westward adjustment. 

Short medium term and longer medium term - the same trend, heights further to the northwest, better ridging through Iceland and Greenland, more resilient southward extension of the Scandinavian trough and modelled with progressively lower heights.

An increasingly cold setup currently in the making for next weekend. Fascinating to see. 

[minus10]

 ...looking at the last three main ec ens shows the mean dropping each time..

...is this a trend that will continue..?

...just to say my condolences to you also @blizzard81, i know how hard it is looking after family members with degenerative diseases....

 

[January Snowstorm]

As you get older it's hard to enjoy the chases and the general roller coaster. However the output really is encouraging at the moment. The gfs is overdue a victory  for that alone I'll be willing it on .

Even if it fails always good to see Europe and Scandi get some proper cold!

[bluearmy]

8 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

As you get older it's hard to enjoy the chases and the general roller coaster. However the output really is encouraging at the moment. The gfs is overdue a victory  for that alone I'll be willing it on .

Even if it fails always good to see Europe and Scandi get some proper cold!

I find it easier - the failure of a chase is less of an issue the older i get. There are much more important things in life! (And a failed chase means a lower gas bill!) 

[Dennis]

Icon18z new idea , see the pressure rise after that low 

Edited November 19, 2023 by Dennis

[Scott Ingham]

8 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

I hope the mods don't mind this but I would like to share something personal - After 8 years battling dementia, my sweet loving mum passed away last night. Her suffering is now at an end and she is at peace ❤❤❤ xxx

I’m so sorry to hear this mate. Lots of love 

[Battleground Snow]

Minor differences in the 18z gfs, but maintaining  most of the blocking into Greenland 

[tight isobar]

Get t’up there Chavy... and the verse of lat blocking remains … intriguing to say the least!

Edited November 19, 2023 by tight isobar

[Tim Bland]

Front sliding end of the week could be of interest….

Edited November 19, 2023 by Tim Bland

[January Snowstorm]

Quote

The clean route to cold is being lost now by gfs as its picking up a low pressure South of Iceland. Someone mentioned sliders, yes in January not in late November with very warm seas

 

[Metwatch]

Now it's more like 50 miles more north from this on the 18z, and that would be perfect for the Midlands snow fans!

Only 2 years after the last decent November snow event that would be a rarity to say the least

My run of the day for sure the GFS 18z with further chances of lows in succession sliding under the high pressure wedge.

Edited November 19, 2023 by Metwatch

[TSNWK]

First gfs for several runs that has pulled back a little on heights into Greenland.. needs to nipped in bud

[nick sussex]

The GFS 18 hrs run shortening the northerly and replacing it with a more battle ground scenario as shortwave energy slips se . We might get to another n to ne a bit later if the high can re-assert itself .

Edited November 19, 2023 by nick sussex

[Ali1977]

Is that a reload coming into Greenland !! It’s been a good run, plenty of snow chances around as lows bump into the colder air!! 

[sheikhy]

Brilliant 18z!!!can it go on in the morning!!!!

[bluearmy]

Not really surprising to see gfs drift away from the clean northerly given the other models - could all change tomorrow but for now, this seems a reasonable run (and very encouraging for coldies with sliders into a cold trough followed by an further amplification attempt ) 

Edited November 19, 2023 by bluearmy

[Aiden2012]

1 thing we can all agree on it’s a very interesting time can’t wait to see how it all plays out