Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

[Don]

So, as soon as the Met Office get on board, the models start playing silly buggers!! 

[damianslaw]

Shape and orientation of the low shown on GFS18z run 30 November looks rather strange has to be said.

Doubt any of the models at this range has its position, depth and trajectory correct. Its a complex evolving situation.

[MJB]

Just now, Don said:

So, as soon as the Met Office get on board, the models start playing silly buggers!! 

I will come out with the obligatory comment 

 

" The MET are looking at more data than we are, they must be seeing something " lol

[Dennis]

2 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

Dennis please explain to this thick one

hi these charts are from the stratosphere parameters

what you see in short talk is an decreasing in the zonal winds (60N at 10Hpa)

such decreasing could play a big role into the winterseason

 

[seabreeze86]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Wouldn’t take much to change this for the better - lots to resolve!! 

This won’t be resolved for a few days yet . Look at the Jet it’s all over the place 

Edited November 23, 2023 by seabreeze86

[Big Gally]

Still a full week away from any snow event.

Probably look different come the weekend.

Keep the faith folks.

[throwoff]

13 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

I'll wait for the ensembles. GFS det is poor, doesn't matter how you sugar coat it the GFS keeps blowing that low up.

Ensembles the only real way to go now. Run by run you will drive yourself batty

[Don]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 

SSW unlikely before Jan - not hugely surprising though.

At least the PV does not look mega strong through December though?

[Sweatyman]

2 minutes ago, Dennis said:

hi these charts are from the stratosphere parameters

what you see in short talk is an decreasing in the zonal winds (60N at 10Hpa)

such decreasing could play a big role into the winterseason

 

thanks Dennis

[throwoff]

2 minutes ago, MJB said:

I will come out with the obligatory comment 

 

" The MET are looking at more data than we are, they must be seeing something " lol

It’s a fair comment to make though. I think people forget that the MET have private business interests supplying groups like railways and airlines. They have to be accurate. My dad works for the rail, I don’t believe snowfall till he tells me he has had the email at work.

Edited November 23, 2023 by throwoff

[Don]

3 minutes ago, MJB said:

I will come out with the obligatory comment 

 

" The MET are looking at more data than we are, they must be seeing something " lol

Lets hope so eh!

[Dennis]

Just now, Don said:

At least the PV does not look mega strong through December though?

True

[mulzy]

15 minutes ago, BartyHater said:

The 18GFS absolutely screams ‘thank god I didn’t tell friends and family again this time, I must be wising up at last’

It’s gone tits up because someone broke ranks!  Own up whoever it is…

[bluearmy]

11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 

SSW unlikely before Jan - not hugely surprising though.

But weak zonal flow means strong spv to downwell unlikely before mid jan at least 

1 minute ago, mulzy said:

It’s gone tits up because someone broke ranks!  Own up whoever it is…

It’s either the meteor or just the mention of a sunspot

[NewEra21]

That’s why it’s always vital in the UK to get the real cold in and the Atlantic completely shut off before getting excited, we’ve seen so many potential cold spells go this way.

Still time for things to change though of course!

[Kasim Awan]

2 minutes ago, Mr snowman 2018 said:

This is why you should never get excited for things to happen in the UK you literally need everything perfect for a cold/snowy scenario to happen one little wobble and it’s game over in this country unfortunately now cold winters are very few and far between 

The position of the low is far from resolved.

[northwestsnow]

18z = bucket loads of rain.

lolz

[throwoff]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

18z = bucket loads of rain.

lolz

Pub run, don’t trust it

[Don]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

18z = bucket loads of rain.

lolz

Just what we need, difference is it might be of the slightly colder variety!

[Dennis]

dont feel hopeless friends 

Dec23 will give what we need i think after 4-6 dec 

please forgive my thoughts for start dec

 

[sheikhy]

Dead run man!!!time to put myself to bed!!hope for better in the morning!!

[Bats32]

Wonder what the ensemble members will say from this

[CoventryWeather]

Still blowing up the low. It's the solution that's less likely, but until another model shows it, I'm not buying it. 

I also think the GFS is underdoing the Scandi Block too - I think that's a reason why it starts bringing milder air in. Other models have a much more organised structure to the northern block. 

[Ali1977]

Still could be a nice end to the op - however FI currently about T72 !! 

[The Enforcer]

2 minutes ago, Bats32 said:

Wonder what the ensemble members will say from this

Knowing GEFS they will probably now say the OP is a cold outlier with the mean LWP over Iceland.