Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

[minus10]

Cracking mean and tight clustering...

[Windysun1]

1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

 

wheres’s the PV?  This is good stuff going forward for cold possibilities  
 

BFTP

Welcome back Fred. I only enquired about you the other evening...should be alot of opportunities in the weeks ahead.

[alexisj9]

4 hours ago, Northwest NI said:

Does the extent of “evaporation” of cold there not seem a bit unrealistic to you in spite of the early season North Sea temperature? It does to me.

To early to be looking at the 850s over us next week. 

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Cracking mean and tight clustering...

Awesome, the METO will be issuing cold weather advisories soon I’m sure, especially with the prolonged nature of it. 

[Allseasons-Si]

5 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

 

wheres’s the PV?  This is good stuff going forward for cold possibilities  
 

BFTP

As far away as possible,...Siberia

and i hope it stays put there

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

As far away as possible,...Siberia

and i hope it stays put there

Correct Alls-si…..agreed!

 

BFTP

Edited November 24, 2023 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[terrier]

Well great charts tonight if it’s cold and possibly a chance of snow for some. The ECM was fantastic and that will take some beating. Thankfully I’m heading to sunnier climbs for 10 days but I wish you all luck in your snow chase fingers crossed guys. Just hope we can land back at Manchester in 10 days time lol  

[Met4Cast]

9 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Awesome, the METO will be issuing cold weather advisories soon I’m sure, especially with the prolonged nature of it. 

They already have for northern counties

[Guest]

18 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

 

wheres’s the PV?  This is good stuff going forward for cold possibilities  
 

BFTP

The same place as your record cold March 2023

Edited November 24, 2023 by Guest

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

7 minutes ago, Tidal Wave said:

The same place as your record cold March 2023

Clearly not!!!   NE Derbyshire….you must be rural TW?

We all live, learn and strive…

 

 

BFTP

Edited November 24, 2023 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[DJ Fart]

18 minutes ago, terrier said:

Well great charts tonight if it’s cold and possibly a chance of snow for some. The ECM was fantastic and that will take some beating. Thankfully I’m heading to sunnier climbs for 10 days but I wish you all luck in your snow chase fingers crossed guys. Just hope we can land back at Manchester in 10 days time lol  

Tenerife, nice. Don't forget to tell us all at least four times a day so we don't forget!

Edited November 24, 2023 by DJ Fart

[Cambrian]

The reconnection of the European trough with its Arctic mother between day 7 and day 9 on the 12z ECM ensemble mean is an eye-catching development. 

 

It brings a renewed Siberian Arctic source into the mix (and look at the drop in temperature happening in that part of the world), pushes the southern extent of the trough further south into the Mediterranean and pushes the cold air further south into Europe too (even on T850s on a day 9 mean)…

 

…ensuring an availability of cold air, that is getting progressively colder, into the UK and Ireland, from north all the way round to south of east, ready for engagement with any systems that come in off the Atlantic, irrespective of their angle of attack.

The reconnection and renewed southward extension of the polar-Euro trough, but now with much colder air entrenched, along with the symmetrical “balance” of the hemispheric profile that results from it (no significant forcing from anywhere for any big change any time soon), are all outstandingly good signs for the longevity of the setup.

Looking formidable. 

[throwoff]

Absolute gold charts today. Come on the Friday night pub run!

[Guest]

12 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Clearly not!!!   NE Derbyshire….you must be rural TW?

We all live, learn and strive…

 

 

BFTP

Yes, rural on the edge of the Peaks with a bit of elevation so ironically I may end up with some snow next week

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 minute ago, Tidal Wave said:

Yes, rural on the edge of the Peaks with a bit of elevation so ironically I may end up with some snow next week

Beautiful part of the country

You WILL get snow!!

BFTP

Edited November 24, 2023 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Mcconnor8]

ICON 18z shifts the low from the Azores South more in line with other models on the positioning as the 12z had it further North than most others.

[london-snow]

52 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

 

wheres’s the PV?  This is good stuff going forward for cold possibilities  
 

BFTP

Welcome back my friend, Good too hear from you after another year, Hope everything is well. This well wish is also extended too everyone. A long hard tough year, Let’s all enjoy the ride. 

Edited November 24, 2023 by london-snow

[Kentspur]

21 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Beautiful part of the country

You WILL get snow!!

BFTP

Why don't I get this sort of reply when I mention going somewhere OK if its any better im in the pine forests of East Anglia as soon as I get back from...... models looking juicy atm

[Meerkat]

"De-built temps and dew points"

It is De Bilt , the ancestral home of the VanderBilt's

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Worth a read if you've missed it regarding El nino winters and the negative NAO...evidence suggests it could mean even more negative phases into the New Year.

Jumping the gun here but I feel this Winter could be one that lasts in the memory,along way to go bit signs look oh so good.

[Sparky68]

6 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Worth a read if you've missed it regarding El nino winters and the negative NAO...evidence suggests it could mean even more negative phases into the New Year.

Jumping the gun here but I feel this Winter could be one that lasts in the memory,along way to go bit signs look oh so good.

Like a 63 memory?

[TwisterGirl81]

I’m just thankful I live in a part of England that rarely sees proper snow, even a dusting of snow we are lucky to see once a year so it’s not something that I ever kid myself into thinking we’ll see. I’m just hoping for a long period of clear sunny weather after the 335mm of rain we’ve received the past 3 months.

Hopefully some of you won’t be left disappointed again……..

Edited November 24, 2023 by TwisterGirl81

[Sparky68]

Just now, TwisterGirl81 said:

I’m just thankful I live in a part of England that rarely sees proper snow, even a dusting of snow we are lucky to see once a year so it’s not something that I ever kid myself into thinking we’ll see. I’m just hoping for a long period of clear sunny weather after the 335mm of rain we’ve received the past 3 months.

Hopefully some of you won’t be left disappointed again……..

I feel your pain, living on the edge of The Fens is similar. 

[mountsbaysnow]

Oh how I miss the memories of Jan 11th 1987 with snow a plenty whilst living in Hayle. I pine for a repeat of those days here in Marazion. I'm not asking for much. It's been painfully too long. 

[TwisterGirl81]

3 minutes ago, Sparky68 said:

I feel your pain, living on the edge of The Fens is similar. 

One thing I am really really hoping for is a better overall spring and summer next year and an early start to warmth rather than having to wait until May.

I like snow but it’s just so rare so no point In chasing weather models for it, if it’s a good storm or settled sunny weather then I’m interested