Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

[sheikhy]

Out for a meal but ecm!!

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Can we please stop calling them "uppers".. 850hPa is about 1500m above the surface, there is a whole heap of atmosphere above that..

They’ve been called uppers  on here for umpteen years 

[MattStoke]

5 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Sadly the news is not good at 120hrs.

Uppers not cold enough, by quite a bit!!

Unless you have a front.

[Kasim Awan]

2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Can we please stop calling them "uppers".. 850hPa is about 1500m above the surface, there is a whole heap of atmosphere above that..

You can't just change widely used terminology with one post.

[Mcconnor8]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Only if it does pull east…. Don’t like these lows and phasing over us….

It will, no real difference in movement of the low to previously

[Jacob]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Out for a meal but ecm!!

Casually making it impossible for the south to get snow… 

HAPPY 200TH PAGE

[That ECM]

T120 gfs mean and ecm ukmo.   deliberately haven’t put the uppers, middlers on.

Edited November 25, 2023 by That ECM

[Daniel]

Ecm is fine! Learn how to read charts or don't comment 

[MattStoke]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

You can't just change widely used terminology with one post.

Met4Cast is right. Uppers are really at around the 500mb level upwards.

[clark3r]

The trend is looking great for this early in the season! Maybe the best since 2010 

[LetItSnow!]

24 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

=So Far so good

Have to admit, some salivating looking charts. That type of pattern is the best kind of year for it, because a slack east/northeasterly doesn't need intense cold to generation very cold surface temperatures because of such a small solar input. If you mix a slack flow like that with snow on the ground you can easily find yourself getting into minus double digit minima.

[Met4Cast]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

You can't just change widely used terminology with one post.

What's 500hPa then? Upper uppers? What about higher? Upper upper upper uppers? The term is meteorologically incorrect and doesn't really make a whole lot of sense. 

Anyway, very good ECM 144!

[Sweatyman]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

T120 gfs mean and ecm ukmo.  

all look good to me

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Daniel said:

Ecm is fine! Learn how to read charts or don't comment 

Wrong… this a forum to learn.. a safe environment to debate / question and learn.. sitting silent is not the way to learn..

[Metwatch]

GEM 12z is the most north, but probably one which could give the most snow with those sliding lows. GFS not bad either, ICON and UKMO further south with those lows, so if you want the the cold easterly flow to stay firmly over the UK, those runs you'd like more.

 

The ECM just coming out isn't too bad with Wales and the north Midlands doing quite well, Cold rain further south but might turn to snow on the backend.

[Captain Shortwave]

Whilst the 850s may lift a little, the day 5 chart is still as cold at the surface with a chilly feed between the south and east. The only question would be whether conditions were conductive for low level snow before this point because that rise in 850s should make much difference given we will be seeing fronts move through. Day 6 sees the same flow between the north and east return.

The ECM is certainly progressive in terms of reducing the heights to the north at the end of week 1, especially comparing the the 00z run.

Edited November 25, 2023 by Captain Shortwave

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Fine if we have a front, but not for north sea convective 

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Ecm is fine! Learn how to read charts or don't comment 

At day 5 into 6  it’s less cold at the surface further south than the 00z run with widespread rain (and some snowfall nw mids and broadly manchester area 

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Met4Cast is right. Uppers are really at around the 500mb level upwards.

Doesn’t really matter - we all know what we mean on here 

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Fine if we have a front, but not for north sea convective 

Exactly, and without the front 850t would be a little lower but still not cold enough for North Sea snow showers away from hills.

Edited November 25, 2023 by MattStoke

[bluearmy]

Lost level of higher heights around greeny by day 7 

however the Arctic generally to our north looks full of high slp and v cold 

[swfc]

Christ wev now got "upper gate" Is the output that bad for late November for all this shenanigans Anyway ec looks fine imo and a lot cleaner ie the nhp 

Edited November 25, 2023 by swfc

[TSNWK]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Lost level of higher heights around greeny by day 7 

however the Arctic generally to our north looks full of high slp and v cold 

This theme also occurred on gfs.l but on the 12z it actually improved things in north west Europe for cold.. maybe we might have wedges to our north west?

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Lost level of higher heights around greeny by day 7 

however the Arctic generally to our north looks full of high slp and v cold 

Its that Icelandic shortwave that's buggarred this run up, hence the drop of heights.

[northwestsnow]

Me and my big mouth

 

[nick sussex]

ECM hits the buffers by day 8 . Once again the models have overdone the Greenland blocking at longer range .

That’s still a way off but the trend hasn’t been great .