Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,UKMO the best charts through to 168 hrs  this evening while ECM prefers the Atlantic lows to bring less cold air Ito the mix,still all about heights to our north west still more chopping and changing to occur from the charts but cold for the coming week looks nailed on to me with snow in Scotland and the north of England and perhaps still a low chance of of some white stuff further south.Longer term all guess work but northern blocking remains the key to every door for all cold lovers like myself,to early to throw the towel in lots to play for yet in this upcoming cold spell.

[That ECM]

But tonight’s are right.

 

T120 plus is JFF or tonight maybe not as fun.  

[Dennis]

EC 1 dec23

[Dennis]

haha this chart shows .....it does not like cold 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Mogreps 12 suite more or less still solid...even far SW remains largely cold...a few less cold runs in there but overall its cold for the next week.

Beyond that is going to be difficult folks. Even the pros have gone from a snow risk to increased chance of becoming milder later next week,to revert back towards colder Nthly winds...and perhaps milder during the 2nd week!

Personally the forecast is going to be difficult in the days ahead as the nwp always struggles with these colder solutions!

Still plenty of scope to remain positive..

[mbrothers]

30 minutes ago, weathercold said:

But many have discussed lowland England snow and a two week cold spell…not seeing either.

Maybe you just see something different to others . 

[PiscesStar]

33 minutes ago, Big Gally said:

I’m hoping to see a return of the cold weather as we approach Christmas. 
It’s great start to winter considering the dross the uk has endured the last few years.

Many more twists and turns to come.

 

I think anything woukd be an improvement on previous seasons. Tonight's runs will be important to reinforce this. Keep the faith all! 

33 minutes ago, Big Gally said:

I’m hoping to see a return of the cold weather as we approach Christmas. 
It’s great start to winter considering the dross the uk has endured the last few years.

Many more twists and turns to come.

 

I think anything woukd be an improvement on previous seasons. Tonight's runs will be important to reinforce this. Keep the faith all! 

33 minutes ago, Big Gally said:

I’m hoping to see a return of the cold weather as we approach Christmas. 
It’s great start to winter considering the dross the uk has endured the last few years.

Many more twists and turns to come.

 

I think anything woukd be an improvement on previous seasons. Tonight's runs will be important to reinforce this. Keep the faith all! 

[Tim Bland]

As far as snowfall potential goes the GEM is my pick tonight ….

[weathercold]

5 minutes ago, mbrothers said:

Maybe you just see something different to others . 

Are you seeing snow across most of mainland England?

Are you seeing strong Greenland heights across the full NWP suite?

I’m seeing temps wrong side of marginal across low level England, no sustained northern blocking and ground temps across all but the far north 4-6 degrees above freezing.

Intrigued as to what you’re seeing …

[mbrothers]

1 minute ago, weathercold said:

Are you seeing snow across most of mainland England?

Are you seeing strong Greenland heights across the full NWP suite?

I’m seeing temps wrong side of marginal across low level England, no sustained northern blocking and ground temps across all but the far north 4-6 degrees above freezing.

Intrigued as to what you’re seeing …

Snow is probably best forecast a few hours before the event. I’m seeing the best cold charts for November for years. I’m not getting carried away either way but it is an exciting time for coldies. 

[northwestsnow]

Noticeable change in EC mean tonight,esp day 7 onwards..

[weathercold]

3 minutes ago, mbrothers said:

Snow is probably best forecast a few hours before the event. I’m seeing the best cold charts for November for years. I’m not getting carried away either way but it is an exciting time for coldies. 

Fair enough and I hope we see snow would be great, I’m a coldie I assure you.

Just need to start seeing more convincing charts across the suite with stronger heights into Greenland, temps slightly lower at 850 and hopefully temps will gradually get colder day by day if we can maintain the block 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, weathercold said:

Fair enough and I hope we see snow would be great, I’m a coldie I assure you.

Just need to start seeing more convincing charts across the suite with stronger heights into Greenland, temps slightly lower at 850 and hopefully temps will gradually get colder day by day if we can maintain the block 

Where are you by the way? so we know location/elevation etc

[BartyHater]

ECM, hopefully just a phase we’re going though, but………

[Dennis]

just a good chart from GFS and EC 

many outcomes are not bad

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Clusters still look OK I think this is the latest update. Plenty of Blocking in place.

[carinthian]

51 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

I think the UKMO 12z chart is better than any chart from 24 hours ago lol

Think I would agree. The current UKMO outputs seem to be latching on to a quicker evolution to a colder scenario over the coming 7 days. Looking at the latest Fax chart , even at 72t there is an upgrade  with the 528 dam line further west. The North Sea will modify the 850mb values but the 500mb -1000mb  values would be low enough for snow ❄ especially a bit inland at 200m . The main source of cold advection into NW Europe will be from Scandinavia where the cold pool is now currently intensifying. I expect upgrades over the coming days , especially for The British Isles.

C

[Windysun1]

1 minute ago, carinthian said:

Think I would agree. The current UKMO outputs seem to be latching on to a quicker evolution to a colder scenario over the coming 7 days. Looking at the latest Fax chart , even at 72t there is an upgrade  with the 528 dam line further west. The North Sea will modify the 850mb values but the 500mb -1000mb  values would be low enough for snow ❄ especially a bit inland at 200m . The main source of cold advection into NW Europe will be from Scandinavia where the cold pool is now currently intensifying. I expect upgrades over the coming days , especially for The British Isles.

C

They would have been my thoughts. The cold pool is still building.

[weathercold]

8 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Where are you by the way? so we know location/elevation etc

London 

[Met4Cast]

EPS still broadly cold out to day 10 but no denying the shift towards a more Atlantic influence in the extended now.

Does seem the blocking might be numbered, but perhaps not a surprise given the MJO is cycling through 2/3 at the moment. Unless we can somehow get very lucky with a secondary wave break then a period of Atlantic activity is probably inevitable as we go through the first week of December.

[carinthian]

1 minute ago, Windysun1 said:

They would have been my thoughts. The cold pool is still building.

Yep, they have warnings currently in Sweden of intense cold over the coming days. Stockhom had snowfall earlier in the day and current temp -9c  in the city.

C

[iceman1991]

7 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Think I would agree. The current UKMO outputs seem to be latching on to a quicker evolution to a colder scenario over the coming 7 days. Looking at the latest Fax chart , even at 72t there is an upgrade  with the 528 dam line further west. The North Sea will modify the 850mb values but the 500mb -1000mb  values would be low enough for snow ❄ especially a bit inland at 200m . The main source of cold advection into NW Europe will be from Scandinavia where the cold pool is now currently intensifying. I expect upgrades over the coming days , especially for The British Isles.

C

Fingers crossed dude 

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Yep, they have warnings currently in Sweden of intense cold over the coming days. Stockhom had snowfall earlier in the day and current temp -9c  in the city.

C

Stockholm?  Stockholm?  It’s not like anyone here would be going there ……

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

EPS still broadly cold out to day 10 but no denying the shift towards a more Atlantic influence in the extended now.

Does seem the blocking might be numbered, but perhaps not a surprise given the MJO is cycling through 2/3 at the moment. Unless we can somehow get very lucky with a secondary wave break then a period of Atlantic activity is probably inevitable as we go through the first week of December.

Det looks very much at the top of the pack and more progressive in breaking things down..

That said, clearly more members bringing the Atlantic in longer term..

[Bricriu]

21 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

EPS still broadly cold out to day 10 but no denying the shift towards a more Atlantic influence in the extended now.

Does seem the blocking might be numbered, but perhaps not a surprise given the MJO is cycling through 2/3 at the moment. Unless we can somehow get very lucky with a secondary wave break then a period of Atlantic activity is probably inevitable as we go through the first week of December.

Considering what's happening now in spite of the atmospheric drivers,It would be ironic if the background signals, like the MJO ,  when they are in a favourable phase for blocking fail to deliver. The weakening in heights over Greenland  is never a good sign. We just have to hope any Atlantic  influence is not a full on return to zonal for weeks on end, but of course  it could be.

Edited November 25, 2023 by Bricriu