Storm Ciarán

[Thunders]

The sound has lowered but the gusts remain as strong as they were If not a little stronger.

Where is the center of the low pressure meant to make landfall. How will this effect the south east?

[mike5900]

Had a low of 955.7mb  

[philglossop]

Here we go. Rain started. Its going to be a rough few hours. 

[Andy Bown]

LOW centre seems directly over Dorset/Wiltshire/Hampshire. Wishing it was daylight to see the cloud movements and possible clear slots. 

[weatherobsuk]

963mb here in the Peak District and still falling as the low moves to the south, I think locally that's broken a new November record although i'll have to look into the archives for confirmation. Searching on google it seems The National Climatic Data Center determined that the lowest CONUS, land-based, non-tropical, sea level pressure was confirmed at 955.0mb in 1913.

Edited November 2, 2023 by toggerobz

[Thunders]

Does the low center Ed there mean anything for south east or is it just the same windy day tHat they expected 

[mike5900]

3 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

LOW centre seems directly over Dorset/Wiltshire/Hampshire. Wishing it was daylight to see the cloud movements and possible clear slots. 

It has passed now 2mb higher.

[Roger J Smith]

Low centre is now just inland, I believe, around Southampton or perhaps just north in hants. Track (I would speculate) will be across London or possibly 20-30 w around heathrow to stansted to Norwich. (having keyboard issues with letter h, should pick towns with no h but easier said than done) ... whatever conditions you have in any part of s England now, be aware of possible rapid changes as areas inside 960 mb isobar around low are much calmer). 

[alr1970]

71 gusting 100 in Jersey now 

https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/weather/current/EGJJ.html

[CurtisOliver]

It’s raining a lot. But the wind is relatively calm. In fact for a little while it was still. Calm before it hits or is this going to be a no show?

[Roger J Smith]

You won't get worst of it, but expect moderate to strong gusts around 8:00 am to 4:00 pm. 

[CurtisOliver]

2 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

You won't get worst of it, but expect moderate to strong gusts around 8:00 am to 4:00 pm. 

Calm before the storm in that case

[Fitzwis]

45 minutes ago, Lincs Observation said:

This is extremely serious stuff down i the Channel Islands probably the most frightening night on record I’d think. This link shows a full bore tornado

https://x.com/thesnowdreamer/status/1719893210401591359?s=46&t=FDRXB-PdoXSULLPenJr_eA

Indeed. It's been terrifying and continues to be so. Unconfirmed reports on social media stating that Jersey Met has just recorded our highest gust so far of 100mph (surpassing 96mph in 1987) and a 9 to 10 meter swell is due to impact our shores in the next hour or so coinciding with a 10.1 meter tide. We are being battered. Not good.

Edited November 2, 2023 by Fitzwis

[Lincs Observation]

7 minutes ago, Fitzwis said:

Indeed. It's been terrifying and continues to be so. Unconfirmed reports on social media stating that Jersey Met has just recorded our highest gust so far of 100mph (surpassing 96mph in 1987) and a 9 to 10 meter swell is due to impact our shores in the next hour or so coinciding with a 10.1 meter tide. We are being battered. Not good.

Take care there I can only imagine how bad it is there, truly historical events happening right now. And extremely dangerous too.

[bevo]

I’m right on the coast east of Southampton and I honestly have seen more stormy weather in my teacups each morning. Apart from the Channel Islands and very exposed coastal areas this has been well over played. My kids school is shut today. Eversince Covid, we’ve become a nation of snowflakes. I went to school on the am of the great storm of 1987 and walked through snow drifts as a kid. Strongest gust so far in mainland U.K. is less than 77mph!!

[Thunders]

Condition ps have changed again, raining and also wind is very strong. The tree are bending and stuff now

[weatherobsuk]

Rue Des Pres, St.Saviour Rd

[MR CB]

I think we are reaching peak wind gusts here in Eastbourne...the power flickered a few moments ago...really rattling and banging the roof... judging by the low pressure centre it does seem a little more south then originally forecast / modelled...some places obviously not getting strong winds due to the calmer centre area?

[Thunders]

Just now, MR CB said:

I think we are reaching peak wind gusts here in Eastbourne...the power flickered a few moments ago...really rattling and banging the roof... judging by the low pressure centre it does seem a little more south then originally forecast / modelled...some places obviously not getting strong winds due to the calmer centre area?

How am I supposed to go to school in this 

[Easily sled]

Not even the slightest of breezes here in Winchester. 

[Thunders]

2 minutes ago, MR CB said:

I think we are reaching peak wind gusts here in Eastbourne...the power flickered a few moments ago...really rattling and banging the roof... judging by the low pressure centre it does seem a little more south then originally forecast / modelled...some places obviously not getting strong winds due to the calmer centre area?

I think they will reach maximum around 730-900

[LiamC]

6 minutes ago, bevo said:

I’m right on the coast east of Southampton and I honestly have seen more stormy weather in my teacups each morning. Apart from the Channel Islands and very exposed coastal areas this has been well over played. My kids school is shut today. Eversince Covid, we’ve become a nation of snowflakes. I went to school on the am of the great storm of 1987 and walked through snow drifts as a kid. Strongest gust so far in mainland U.K. is less than 77mph!!

Utterly stupid reply

[lottiekent]

Anyone central southern south coast are at the centre of the low at the moment so as you know, that means winds are calm for the moment.

[weatherobsuk]

Livestream from Guernsey coming up soon

 

[Thunders]

We also have another peak to think about as the western side is also quite bad according to what people have said 

4 minutes ago, MR CB said:

I think we are reaching peak wind gusts here in Eastbourne...the power flickered a few moments ago...really rattling and banging the roof... judging by the low pressure centre it does seem a little more south then originally forecast / modelled...some places obviously not getting strong winds due to the calmer centre area?