Storm Ciarán

[I remember Atlantic 252]

 

UKMO suggests highest winds mainly for the south, GFS similar, track of course is key to who gets the worst, keep looking on models hoping for an improvement but not much luck, half term here too

Edited October 29, 2023 by Jo Farrow

[Summer Sun]

The met office have issued a yellow warning for Storm Ciarán from 6pm Wednesday to 6pm Thursday in parts of the south

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2023-11-01

 

[Ian Ballinger]

Awww North Wales missing out again

[daniel barber]

Regarding total impacts. Not to concerned unless it shifts a few hundred miles north. 

[Shaunado]

The Met Office has issued a yellow warning for Southern areas for wind for Thursday (low risk, high impact)

"Storm Ciaran is likely to bring a spell of very strong winds to southern parts of the UK, particularly during Thursday. Winds are likely to gust to 80mph along the south coast, with a very low risk of gusts in exposure to 90mph, and winds could gust up to 50 or 60mph inland from the early hours. The strongest winds will begin to ease later in the day from the southwest.".

There are also rainfall warnings for Mon, Wed and Thu (at least).

UK weather warnings

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings.

 

 

[Skullzrulerz]

17 minutes ago, daniel barber said:

Regarding total impacts. Not to concerned unless it shifts a few hundred miles north. 

I do believe that it has slightly shifted more southwards.

Seems the SW and South Coast may experience some brunt of the storm but France seems to be getting the most of it 

[Jo Farrow]

Storm Ciaran - another week, another storm

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

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The UK Met Office has named Storm Ciaran, for potentially very windy weather Wednesday night and on Thursday with even more rain. There are plenty of rain warnings before that too.

 

[danm]

 

[Metwatch]

There's 2 threads for this named storm, which one to use, a little confusing...

[danm]

 

[WinterOf47]

This has more comments, so I’m going to post here. This will be a tree killer storm (and any humans beneath). The ground is absolutely saturated down here on the south coast after a week of heavy rain showers and more to come, already got floods in some places. Most of the trees are still in full leaf…most in fact still green. There could be loss of life as the winds will be strong during the day on Thursday as well. I won’t be venturing out as at the least could be lots of road closures.

[FetchCB]

6 hours ago, Shaunado said:

The Met Office has issued a yellow warning for Southern areas for wind for Thursday (low risk, high impact)

"Storm Ciaran is likely to bring a spell of very strong winds to southern parts of the UK, particularly during Thursday. Winds are likely to gust to 80mph along the south coast, with a very low risk of gusts in exposure to 90mph, and winds could gust up to 50 or 60mph inland from the early hours. The strongest winds will begin to ease later in the day from the southwest.".

There are also rainfall warnings for Mon, Wed and Thu (at least).

UK weather warnings

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings.

 

 

Low risk at this timescale I would have thought. If the track remains the same I would imagine the impacts are significant enough that any increase in the risk will warrant an Amber warning. 

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, FetchCB said:

Low risk at this timescale I would have thought. If the track remains the same I would imagine the impacts are significant enough that any increase in the risk will warrant an Amber warning. 

Impact all the way across, certainty at the bottom. As certainty increases amber is certainly possible.

[Polar Bear]

3 hours ago, WinterOf47 said:

This has more comments, so I’m going to post here. This will be a tree killer storm (and any humans beneath). The ground is absolutely saturated down here on the south coast after a week of heavy rain showers and more to come, already got floods in some places. Most of the trees are still in full leaf…most in fact still green. There could be loss of life as the winds will be strong during the day on Thursday as well. I won’t be venturing out as at the least could be lots of road closures.

After todays deluge on the south coast for sure it will be devasting.. the ground is beyond saturated. 

i really hope it tracks further south nearer France and leaves our coastline alone.. here’s hoping. 

[Guest]

18z GFS has a northwards shift, but worst impacts mainly reserved for eastern English Channel coasts:

Compared to the 12z GFS:

Undoubtedly further twists and turns to come but the southwards trend has certainly stopped on the 18z operational at least.

[Catacol]

Most recent FAX chart for Thursday published last night. I'd say this is a concerning chart.

We await the latest for Thursday - delayed? Might tell a story.

Edited October 29, 2023 by Catacol

[lottiekent]

I am under no circumstances forecasting another 1987, but the similarities between last night’s fax chart and the 6am fax for 1987 are similar.

 

 

The image for 1987 is taken from the Met Office write up of the storm, link for anyone who fancied a read https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2012/10/12/how-did-the-great-storm-of-1987-develop/

 

Edited October 29, 2023 by lottiekent
Images cropped to try & get similar position on map

[Metwatch]

2 deep sub 960mb lows together around the UK by Wednesday night shown on most runs now, I imagine that would be one heck of a satellite presentation.

A sort of Fujiwhara effect in play.

[philglossop]

8 hours ago, lottiekent said:

I am under no circumstances forecasting another 1987, but the similarities between last night’s fax chart and the 6am fax for 1987 are similar.

 

 

The image for 1987 is taken from the Met Office write up of the storm, link for anyone who fancied a read https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2012/10/12/how-did-the-great-storm-of-1987-develop/

 

I hate to say this... but I'm getting the same vibes as 1987 with this one. Having lived through that night and run up, the set up is broadly the same, Sting jet, rapid cyclogenisis, same SW- NE alinement. 

Given the number of trees in Devon still in full leaf, I'm pretty fearful. The SE gales will also impact transport with A379 going to be in trouble at Torcross and railway line at Dawlish. 

Edited October 30, 2023 by philglossop

[James Maidstone]

27 minutes ago, philglossop said:

I hate to say this... but I'm getting the same vibes as 1987 with this one. Having lived through that night and run up, the set up is broadly the same, Sting jet, rapid cyclogenisis, same SW- NE alinement. 

Given the number of trees in Devon still in full leaf, I'm pretty fearful. The SE gales will also impact transport with A379 going to be in trouble at Torcross and railway line at 

Wouldn't rapid cyclogenesis be modelled more accurately these days though?  All models are in agreement though that this is to be a very deep area of low pressure, the fine detail is key though.  ECM favours a more northerly track with today's 00z having the low centred over Bristol at 12pm Thursday (yesterday's 12z had the centre about 80 miles South).  For comparison todays 00z has the low centred over East Anglia at the same time and the Path further South meaning destructive winds less of an issue for the South Coast in comparison to ECM.  If the ECM shunts North further still of pulls the storm track more NE then the impact on the South Coast could be a lot more severe.   As the saying goes "awaiting a big ECM run this evening!"

[alexisj9]

Just now, James Maidstone said:

Wouldn't rapid cyclogenesis be modelled more accurately these days though?  All models are in agreement though that this is to be a very deep area of low pressure, the fine detail is key though.  ECM favours a more northerly track with today's 00z having the low centred over Bristol at 12pm Thursday (yesterday's 12z had the centre about 80 miles South).  For comparison todays 00z has the low centred over East Anglia at the same time and the Path further South meaning destructive winds less of an issue for the South Coast in comparison to ECM.  If the ECM shunts North further still of pulls the storm track more NE then the impact on the South Coast could be a lot more severe.   As the saying goes "awaiting a big ECM run this evening!"

True that, for some reason many aren't looking at the SE Gail before the low comes over, just where the winds under the storm hit.

[Weather-history]

Not sure if there will be any effect but do the Straits of Dover produce a funnelling effect if the wind direction is right?

[Penguin16]

ECM ensemble the main run has the lowest gust out of all of them for Penzance at 6am on Thursday morning with a gust of around 15mph. The highest gust at that time is 95mph. Big spread but main run doesn’t get above 60mph for there. For London around 75mph is the strongest gust on the ecm ensembles. Main run only 45mph. 

It kind of stalls and fills before positionally we’re on the southern end of the centre. A smidge North and a red warning but the jury is still out. 

[alexisj9]

30 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Not sure if there will be any effect but do the Straits of Dover produce a funnelling effect if the wind direction is right?

Yes, of course, same principle as lea winds except it's squeezed at the sides rather than from the top.

Perhaps more understood as wind tunnel effect.

Edited October 30, 2023 by alexisj9

[Frosty hollows]

1 hour ago, philglossop said:

I hate to say this... but I'm getting the same vibes as 1987 with this one. Having lived through that night and run up, the set up is broadly the same, Sting jet, rapid cyclogenisis, same SW- NE alinement. 

Given the number of trees in Devon still in full leaf, I'm pretty fearful. The SE gales will also impact transport with A379 going to be in trouble at Torcross and railway line at Dawlish. 

Said exactly that yesterday