Storm Ciarán

[Thunders]

29 minutes ago, The Tall Weatherman said:

We sadly did lose an apple tree to storm Ciaran. I believe it was a  45mph gust that did it.

it might grow a bit odd now.

[A Face like Thunder]

33 minutes ago, Bazza118 said:

Just had a look at the pressure drop here in Cousldon when storm Ciaran arrived. The lowest pressure recorded was on Thursday morning at 955.2MB, 24 hours earlier it was 988.4 so we had a drop of 33.2MB in 24 hours so that is definately "explosive cyclogenesis".  In fact if it was to be 25hours it would have gone from 991.6 to 955.2 so 36.4MB.   Interestingly we have had a 20MB drop since 10pm last night as well althiugh that seems to have bottomed out now.

I hope the weather cheers up for the Veteran Cars coming through the town tomorrow morning!

[IanT]

On 01/11/2023 at 17:00, Catacol said:

Latest BBC forecast = gonna be a pretty ordinary day for many in the south - as windy as an ordinary autumn day. Fair enough. Not my read of it, but hey - who are we to question the Beeb or the Met....

 

On 03/11/2023 at 12:03, Midlands Ice Age said:

Agree with most comments above about the performance of the Met Office during this storm. It was the MO that was closest to the final  track.

…

However the BBC on Wed evening were still persisting with the centre sitting over the Midlands.

This is when the issues/problems started..

The general public had no idea that it was moving more south eastwards (about 100 to 150 miles) and that the major severity warnings were now transferring to the Channel Islands and Brittany. (and away from England).

Hence on Wed evening we had Hampshire closing all schools, general worrying right across Southern England, etc, over something that was not happening. Many people cancelled journeys to the south coast from around here, and  when I told people that things had 'changed', I was shouted down (and I do mean in actuality) as they trusted the BBC implicitly. 

…

Now is my view of the BBC forecasts  incorrect?

I am concerned that people were apparently making decisions in implicit faith in the correctness of the BBC, (and thought that I was lieing or totally wrong>>>>).

Should the BBC change their data incoming  timetable form 'MeteoGroup, so as the have a better chance of avoiding this situation in the future , OR is it to be accepted in the form of cost cutting in the BBC.

Most of the population trust the BBC implicitly, should it not live up to its reputation by moving back to the MO.? 

 

I think so. See quote above - the BBC had some pretty clear messaging on the afternoon of Wednesday 1st, saying that Thursday would be a “pretty ordinary day” for many in the south. This messaging wasn’t popular here, with several posters asking where the red warnings / school closures etc were.

The BBC should be accorded some credit for their Wednesday afternoon output, which appears to have been shaped by increased confidence regarding the more southerly track.

Edited November 5, 2023 by IanT

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, IanT said:

 

I think so. See quote above - the BBC had some pretty clear messaging on the afternoon of Wednesday 1st, saying that Thursday would be a “pretty ordinary day” for many in the south. This messaging wasn’t popular here, with several posters asking where the red warnings / school closures etc were.

The BBC should be accorded some credit for their Wednesday afternoon output, which appears to have been shaped by increased confidence regarding the more southerly track.

Had three hours with winds in high 70s here, red warning perhaps ott, but schools were closed due to trees down on major routes so people couldn't get here. I shouldn't have had to worry all night about how bad the weather my kids might have to walk to school in would be. Areas further north yes much more normal, but most of Kent, not normal at all. The word most was used, but at the same time, perhaps areas not included in the most should have been highlighted.

Edited November 5, 2023 by alexisj9

[Eagle Eye]

On 02/11/2023 at 17:35, Eagle Eye said:

Very interesting. Absolutely no expert but non toenailed nails ripped out the ground. Plus other photos, this looks like a level 6/7 kind of damage indicator (corresponds with the T scale but shift downwards one, E. G. T5/6 damage indicator) with some exterior walls close to collapsed . So high end EF2 up to mid end EF3 damage. Suspect it'll end up high end EF2 as I don't think contextual damage is enough but possibly if someone knows more about the engineering of nails more than me and foundations of these particular houses then it could be EF3 level. I'm pretty sure the strongest since 2006?

Similar tornado at a similar time, last year in Northern France but slightly stronger damage. Got a T6, so I think this one will get a T5. 

Here we go. Preliminary a T6, which is pretty much exactly along the lines of what I thought. 

[WeatherArc]

Crazy

Stronger than Birmingham 2005, must equate to at least a high end EF2, if not a low end EF3. 

Looks like all the perfect ingredients came together, good cape, high 3cape very strong shear (250m2 0-1km SRH) and decent lapse rates.

All of this combined to create the supercell storm that tracked over the Island, producing the strong tornado as well as severe hail, lightning and wind gusts.  Still can't get over the fact it happened in November! 

Edit-After comparing Torro to EF scale this tornado was very likely an EF3

Edited November 6, 2023 by WeatherArc

[Nick L]

Absolutely no way was that tornado worse than the Birmingham one! Either that or TORRO are yet to release proof of it.

I've seen damage from EF-3 tornadoes close up and they do a damn sight more damage than rip off a few tiles. For comparison, this was an aerial shot of the Birmingham tornado which ripped roofs clean off and turned over cars:

And the aerial footage of the Jersey one:

At the scene where a 'tornado' struck Jersey

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

The BBC's Dan Johnson surveys the damage after Storm Ciarán struck St Clement.

The damage in the footage doesn't correspond to TORRO's own scale for a T6:

"Moderately devastating"? Come off it. Happy to change my mind if someone can provide images proving me wrong but so far this just seems like TORRO overhyping things.

Edited November 6, 2023 by Nick L

[WeatherArc]

6 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Absolutely no way was that tornado worse than the Birmingham one! Either that or TORRO are yet to release proof of it.

I've seen damage from EF-3 tornadoes close up and they do a damn sight more damage than rip off a few tiles. For comparison, this was an aerial shot of the Birmingham tornado which ripped roofs clean off and turned over cars:

And the aerial footage of the Jersey one:

At the scene where a 'tornado' struck Jersey

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

The BBC's Dan Johnson surveys the damage after Storm Ciarán struck St Clement.

The damage in the footage doesn't correspond to TORRO's own scale for a T6:

"Moderately devastating"? Come off it. Happy to change my mind if someone can provide images proving me wrong but so far this just seems like TORRO overhyping things.

I did think it was a little much but not sure how these things work, maybe to do with construction?  I believe the ESSL gave it an IS2/EF2.

This is the worst damage ive seen, will have a look at twitter for anything else. 

[Nick L]

1 hour ago, WeatherArc said:

I did think it was a little much but not sure how these things work, maybe to do with construction?  I believe the ESSL gave it an IS2/EF2.

This is the worst damage ive seen, will have a look at twitter for anything else. 

That's more like what I would expect. Perhaps some of the surveying of the rural damage has uncovered some debarking of trees? Shame that TORRO has released precious little evidence to back up the preliminary report.

[Jo Farrow]

@Fitzwis posted some photos from the scene a few days ago, see below. There were more.

https://www.torro.org.uk/pdf/20231106_TORRO_PressRelease_JerseyTornado.pdf

https://www.torro.org.uk/research/tornadoes/tscale

https://www.weather.gov/tae/ef_scale

 

[Nick L]

12 hours ago, Jo Farrow said:

@Fitzwis posted some photos from the scene a few days ago, see below. There were more.

https://www.torro.org.uk/pdf/20231106_TORRO_PressRelease_JerseyTornado.pdf

https://www.torro.org.uk/research/tornadoes/tscale

https://www.weather.gov/tae/ef_scale

 

Certainly not EF3 level if that was amongst the worst damage. For comparison, just Google "EF3 damage", simply no comparison.

Edited November 7, 2023 by Nick L

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Nick L said:

Certainly not EF3 level if that was amongst the worst damage. For comparison, just Google "EF3 damage", simply no comparison.

I'm sure there's more damage than on those pics, it seems to have tracked right over the island reading the text. Still I guess we'll see. This is only a preliminary figure for now. Says the track was 8km.

Edited November 7, 2023 by alexisj9

[Eagle Eye]

1 hour ago, Nick L said:

Certainly not EF3 level if that was amongst the worst damage. For comparison, just Google "EF3 damage", simply no comparison.

Contextual damage for sure doesn't look EF3 level but there are some signs of it with the nails out the ground (EF2/3?) but likely not secured well. 

You've also got to take into account the building quality. I suspect these are quite well built and there was some half collapsed exterior walls that I saw. So low end EF3 if we take out that the contextual damage doesn't really look T6 level. 

[alexisj9]

5 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Contextual damage for sure doesn't look EF3 level but there are some signs of it with the nails out the ground (EF2/3?) but likely not secured well. 

You've also got to take into account the building quality. I suspect these are quite well built and there was some half collapsed exterior walls that I saw. So low end EF3 if we take out that the contextual damage doesn't really look T6 level. 

I'm wondering if the damaged Martello tower was in the tornado, as that might account for the rating?

[Jo Farrow]

Second part of this tweet shows drone footage of possible track 

 

[Freeze]

I'm with nick, that drone footage looks nothing like ef3 damage, perhaps ef1 at most.

[Nick L]

Some of the comments on the TORRO Facebook page are ridiculous. Suggesting it's a low end EF4!!! If it was EF4 the houses wouldn't even be there.

I've seen the collapsed wall. I think EF2 is more sensible. But 160mph winds? No.

[Jo Farrow]

2 hours ago, Nick L said:

Some of the comments on the TORRO Facebook page are ridiculous. Suggesting it's a low end EF4!!! If it was EF4 the houses wouldn't even be there.

I've seen the collapsed wall. I think EF2 is more sensible. But 160mph winds? No.

 

[Nick L]

3 hours ago, Jo Farrow said:

 

I know Paul so have refrained from commenting on TORRO's page. But that's not helping the confusion, really. 

[The Iceman Cometh]

Just a shame that Netweather for whatever reason, has stopped including Jersey and Guernsey in it's forecasts.

Any chance that we may get it back sometime ?

[matty40s]

 

[alexisj9]

4 minutes ago, matty40s said:

 

Probably not the only thing many haven't seen., it's an 8km long touch down, we've not seen most of it in pictures. People only notice the structures.

[danm]

Storm Ciarán comparable with 'Great Storm' of 1987

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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A Met Office report shows that for the Channel Islands, Ciarán was as bad as the 'Great Storm' of 1987.

 

[alexisj9]

This might be of interest to some here, the full report of the Jersey tornado, official rating t6

The Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO)

WWW.TORRO.ORG.UK

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TORRO is a privately-supported research body specialising in severe convective weather in Britain and Ireland

 

[WYorksWeather]

I read through that last night. It seems that the key was the damage done to well constructed buildings, and throwing of heavy material, along with some material becoming embedded in other structures. Some examples of damage described as T6:

Page 12

Quote

Wooden beams (dimensions over 5m long with a cross section of 0.3x0.12m) were lost from the building and were carried 150m across the playing fields to land on the fields, and in at least one case, over a wall into a garden. The beams were estimated to weigh around 100kg

Page 20

Quote

An old steel fuel tank (dimensions 1.83m by 1.2m by 1.2m) landed on this property intact, after travelling around 160m north-eastwards from another property. There were no drag marks on the ground, and it appeared to have cleared hedges and badly damaged polytunnels to arrive at this point.

Page 37

Quote

One of the most significant indicators of a T6 tornado was found 2.7km along the track in Boulivot, where a single storey property collapsed. Here, a heavy concrete lump was lofted around 35m to penetrate into a second-floor bedroom.