Storm Ciarán

[pinball wizard]

6 hours ago, Freeze said:

What I can't wrap my head around is that looking at the synoptics we had a very intensely deep area of low pressure around 955mb pass just to the north of here producing around 40 odd mph gusts, yet flabby 990mb lows passing to the north of Scotland can produce much stronger winds? Weather is truly mysterious and fascinating!

It's most likey due to topography. Scotland has many area of relatively high mountains and lower level valleys and coast. Wind will be pushed up the mountains and down the valleys causing much gustier winds than if the same low pressure was found further south where it is flatter.

[Mark Parsons]

Possible tornado last night at a village near me, zoom in to the hedge image, classic carve through!

[alexisj9]

4 minutes ago, Mark Parsons said:

Possible tornado last night at a village near me, zoom in to the hedge image, classic carve through!

No surprise that squall looked very dangerous with lots of hooks at one stage. Also looks like snapped trees in the background.

[Blessed Weather]

From Dan Holley of Weatherquest, a comparison of model forecasts for the track of Storm Ciaran versus the actual observed:

A look back at the deterministic runs of the main global models from Wednesday (00z) for the expected track of #StormCiarán. Much of East Anglia and inland SE England narrowly missed the very strong winds as Ciarán tracked further east than forecast.

Source: X https://x.com/danholley_/status/1720170155047546913?s=20

[stodge]

Evening all

Here in East London, my thought is also we've had a narrow escape. 

I was worried the storm would shift NE to the NW of London and we would be on the windiest side but as @Blessed Weather has pointed out above, the forecast track was further south and east than many models had suggested.

I don't have a barometer an would love to know the MSLP as it passed over London this morning - forecast to be 953MB but I suspect a notch less intense. The wind here has been stronger this afternoon and evening from the north west and now west - plenty of rain once again. I know Lingfield Racecourse had 34 mm of rain but I've not seen the 24 hour cumulations for London.

[Snowboy111]

8 hours ago, Downburst said:

Wow, is that a Martello towner? Napoleonic defence, lots of them on the coast in Ireland, certainly built to withstand the weather. 

It is. 15 built, 12 still standing. 

[ChannelThunder]

18 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

From Dan Holley of Weatherquest, a comparison of model forecasts for the track of Storm Ciaran versus the actual observed:

A look back at the deterministic runs of the main global models from Wednesday (00z) for the expected track of #StormCiarán. Much of East Anglia and inland SE England narrowly missed the very strong winds as Ciarán tracked further east than forecast.

Source: X https://x.com/danholley_/status/1720170155047546913?s=20

A win for UKMO & UKV then. The latter was showing the strongest gusts well away from the south coast as far back as some runs on Monday, but some here seemed to dismiss it somewhat.

[CurtisOliver]

6 minutes ago, stodge said:

Evening all

Here in East London, my thought is also we've had a narrow escape. 

I was worried the storm would shift NE to the NW of London and we would be on the windiest side but as @Blessed Weather has pointed out above, the forecast track was further south and east than many models had suggested.

I don't have a barometer a would love to know the MSLP as it passed over London this morning - forecast to be 953MB but I suspect a notch less intense. The wind here has been stronger this afternoon and evening from the north west and now west - plenty of rain once again. I know Lingfield Racecourse had 34 mm of rain but I've not seen the 24 hour cumulations for London.

Definitely had a lot of rain today. And the windiest it’s been is in the last couple of hours. 40-45mph. 

[Donna3397]

I live on the coast and it hasn’t stopped howling, wind started to get back up around 5ish and seems to be getting worse. It has stopped raining which is a positive. 

[Freeze]

53 minutes ago, pinball wizard said:

It's most likey due to topography. Scotland has many area of relatively high mountains and lower level valleys and coast. Wind will be pushed up the mountains and down the valleys causing much gustier winds than if the same low pressure was found further south where it is flatter.

I meant these flabby lows going north of Scotland can create stronger winds down here, compared to what we got today. Sorry I didn't word it properly.

Edited November 2, 2023 by Freeze

[Fitzwis]

5 hours ago, Norrance said:

 

207 kms per hour is approx 129 mph.

Here in Jersey, we've had confirmation this evening that the highest gust recorded on the island was 104mph at the Maison St Louis Observatory in the Parish of St Saviour

[Jo Farrow]

4 minutes ago, Fitzwis said:

Here in Jersey, we've had confirmation this evening that the highest gust recorded on the island was 104mph at the Maison St Louis Observatory in the Parish of St Saviour

I saw this tweet "Storm Ciaran briefly brought winds reaching Hurricane Force 12 (73+mph) to the Island, gusts recorded at St Helier Harbour up to 83kt/96mph peaking around 4:30 a.m. this morning. Jersey Airport recorded a gust of 88kt/101mph. Coastguard at St. Helier recorded a gust of 89kt/102mph" from Jersey Met

https://twitter.com/Jersey_Met/status/1720072734892576970

so even higher for Channel Islands

Edited November 2, 2023 by Jo Farrow
adding F12 in mph

[Fitzwis]

This is devastating. Many of the trees on South Hill in St Helier have stood tall and proud for longer than I dare to remember, surviving many a windstorm, until now . 

No doubt St Helier Parks and Gardens will rejuvenate the area for future generations to enjoy

 

 

[stripeyfox]

Devastating to see the damage in the CI, especially Jersey which seems to have had it much worse then neighbouring Guernsey.

 

Had the best holiday of my life a couple of years ago. 10 days visiting Jersey, Guernsey, Herm, Sark and Alderney. Absolutely amazing places with brilliant people.

 

 

[wimblettben]

Got a pressure reading of 955 from this storm but it only gave us max gusts of 30-35mph between about 6:00AM and 12:00PM.

So even for here in Wales the yellow warning we were left with became invalid as the low obviously had gone a bit further south than expected as even here we were expected to get at least 40-50mph gusts.

[Ryan H]

1 hour ago, Blessed Weather said:

From Dan Holley of Weatherquest, a comparison of model forecasts for the track of Storm Ciaran versus the actual observed:

A look back at the deterministic runs of the main global models from Wednesday (00z) for the expected track of #StormCiarán. Much of East Anglia and inland SE England narrowly missed the very strong winds as Ciarán tracked further east than forecast.

Source: X https://x.com/danholley_/status/1720170155047546913?s=20

The Storm has passed us thankfully. I mean it I had a bit of wind and rain but not as bad as it could have been.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

8 minutes ago, stripeyfox said:

Devastating to see the damage in the CI, especially Jersey which seems to have had it much worse then neighbouring Guernsey.

 

Had the best holiday of my life a couple of years ago. 10 days visiting Jersey, Guernsey, Herm, Sark and Alderney. Absolutely amazing places with brilliant people.

 

 

went there too, great holidays, been to all of them 

[stripeyfox]

6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

went there too, great holidays, been to all of them 

I loved my time there. I thought it would be all millionaires in Ferraris but Saturday night with the locals in St Peter Port was immense. Just solid good people going out and getting smashed, getting off with each other and the occasional fight  superb night out, never to be repeated!

 

[GSP]

25 minutes ago, Fitzwis said:

This is devastating. Many of the trees on South Hill in St Helier have stood tall and proud for longer than I dare to remember, surviving many a windstorm, until now . 

No doubt St Helier Parks and Gardens will rejuvenate the area for future generations to enjoy

 

So sad to see. With trees snapped and in that condition, looks like the same or another tornado passed through to me.

[IanT]

1 hour ago, ChannelThunder said:

A win for UKMO & UKV then. The latter was showing the strongest gusts well away from the south coast as far back as some runs on Monday, but some here seemed to dismiss it somewhat.

Very much so! I think the MetO have handled this very well in forecast terms.

I don’t think their 2-axis matrix works for the “general public” though. A low likelihood of high-impact damage/disruption is NOT the same as a high likelihood of low-impact damage/disruption. Labelling both as “Yellow” causes much of the evident confusion.

The colours are an attempt to simplify two important dimensions into one. I think this is a misguided intent, and should be reconsidered. Both dimensions are important.

Edited November 2, 2023 by IanT

[WYorksWeather]

2 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

From Dan Holley of Weatherquest, a comparison of model forecasts for the track of Storm Ciaran versus the actual observed:

A look back at the deterministic runs of the main global models from Wednesday (00z) for the expected track of #StormCiarán. Much of East Anglia and inland SE England narrowly missed the very strong winds as Ciarán tracked further east than forecast.

Source: X https://x.com/danholley_/status/1720170155047546913?s=20

Does show how things changed. Shows that the track was in line with the models or possibly further north early on (can't see the very early track when I was posting at about 10pm last night - it was still well out to sea at that point), but then the northward turn didn't really happen to the extent forecast.

Small margins.

[suffolkboy_]

BBC news website reporting “possible hurricane”. I presume they mean possible tornado and the reporter is too inept to know the difference? 

[Rexychan]

It seemed like quite a storm over there.

Some of the SST anomalies and thermal temperature gradients are extreme even for the time of year.

[Daniel_c150311]

I am extremely mad because storm Ciaran bring thunderstorms to my home town and  I've missed all decent thunderstorms this year and on November first there was a thunderstorm when I was coming back from holidays so I completely missed it and looked like there was decent hail too then a day after when I get back home where I was in Athens got thunderstorms.

IMG_1695.MOV <-- video of hail

Edited November 3, 2023 by Dxnielwashere

[Jordan S]

UKV and Icon models and to a lesser extent ECMWF did extremely well in forecasting the development and track of this ferocious storm as the calm centre tracked across the far south of England, as opposed to the slightly more likely centre track being west to east close to the south coast until northeast from sort of Isle of Wight area northeast through London or a touch further to the north. But considering how consistent these two models (UKV and Icon) both where and to a lesser extent ECMWF with the precise track of this storm, they where always on reliability most likely to be correct, especially with UKV model generally being one of the best performing models for the uk, understandably so. Met office done excellent for the most part with the warnings.

Looks like the strongest storm since probably 1987 for the Channel Islands, top isolated gust of 129mph around exposed northwest France.. what an extraordinary storm, this would be severe for the northern isles let alone places usually so sheltered from storms of lesser intensity than this one.
 

With even a fairly significant tornado being involved. Truly exceptional and I’m sure for the Channel Islands it will be remembered from many for a long old time. South of England really did get very lucky with this, slight changes in the development of this storm could of very easily steered it further northeast and fairly ominous to be aware of that as a possibility even though a low one less than 24 hours before it arrived. next low brings very strong winds to northern Spain and western France tomorrow though nothing on the severity of storm Ciaran with gusts to 50-60mph and exposed parts of northern Spain/western France possibly seeing the 60- 70mph gusts for a time causing some potential damage and disruption for these parts especially as these winds being not that common for them. 

Edited November 3, 2023 by Jordan S