Storm Ciarán

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, suffolkboy_ said:

BBC news website reporting “possible hurricane”. I presume they mean possible tornado and the reporter is too inept to know the difference? 

Reading the test of the paragraph, tornado is the only thing that fits.

[ChannelThunder]

The public and certain media outlets seem to have named Debi tomorrow themselves, when all that the system will bring to the UK is some rain and maybe a stiff breeze for the south. Sick of seeing 'Debi' all over Facebook, and when you point out it's not true you get Metro articles claiming the MO have named it shoved in your face. 

I hope the Met Office spot all of this and do some kind of fact checking social media post to confirm that there's not a storm due tomorrow and it's definitely not named Debi!

[carinthian]

On 30/10/2023 at 10:16, carinthian said:

Quite a bit of interest over in Euroland regarding the forthcoming stormy period. Talk of hurricane winds into Bay of Biscay and possibly English Channel. However, the main concern seems to be possible development of a marginal storm formation over the continent on the southern flank of Storm Ciaran as it moves over England. Heavy rainfall amounts for Northern France and Low countries plus possible wind distruption. Swiss weather experts expect some large amounts of snowfall above 2000m falling to 1500m on passage of the main cold front associated with the above developments. Certainly , there will be some intense scrutiny's of the Atlantic the low formation and track by the various weather agencies over the coming hours. Potential to bring widespread disruption to quite a few Western European countries as the week progresses.

C

Morning , as feared  and predicted by the models, especially UKMO , the marginal storm formation associated  Ciaran is causing some flooding problems across  Northern Italy, Austria and Slovenia at the moment. Large amounts of rainfall and heavy snow from about 1200m absl. Will send some snow pictures in the Austrian thread later. Currently very heavy fall of wet snow in the Eastern Alps.

 

[Jo Farrow]

9 hours ago, IanT said:

Very much so! I think the MetO have handled this very well in forecast terms.

I don’t think their 2-axis matrix works for the “general public” though. A low likelihood of high-impact damage/disruption is NOT the same as a high likelihood of low-impact damage/disruption. Labelling both as “Yellow” causes much of the evident confusion.

The colours are an attempt to simplify two important dimensions into one. I think this is a misguided intent, and should be reconsidered. Both dimensions are important.

I think this is a really important aspect and as they add ensemble forecasting into the mix for the public, the communication needs wide consideration.

[Jo Farrow]

6 minutes ago, ChannelThunder said:

The public and certain media outlets seem to have named Debi tomorrow themselves, when all that the system will bring to the UK is some rain and maybe a stiff breeze for the south. Sick of seeing 'Debi' all over Facebook, and when you point out it's not true you get Metro articles claiming the MO have named it shoved in your face. 

I hope the Met Office spot all of this and do some kind of fact checking social media post to confirm that there's not a storm due tomorrow and it's definitely not named Debi!

It has been named by AEMET , Spanish met DOMINGOS, different thread and very different low

 

[GSP]

Did Storm Ciaran affect Italy? The last I saw of it it was heading NE up the North Sea and filling?

Storm Ciarán: Floods ravage Tuscany leaving three dead

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

Three people are confirmed dead and six more are missing as heavy winds and rain buffet central Italy.

 

[ANYWEATHER]

1 hour ago, ChannelThunder said:

The public and certain media outlets seem to have named Debi tomorrow themselves, when all that the system will bring to the UK is some rain and maybe a stiff breeze for the south. Sick of seeing 'Debi' all over Facebook, and when you point out it's not true you get Metro articles claiming the MO have named it shoved in your face. 

I hope the Met Office spot all of this and do some kind of fact checking social media post to confirm that there's not a storm due tomorrow and it's definitely not named Debi!

Social media ,the scourge of this era........

[Jo Farrow]

1 hour ago, GSP said:

Did Storm Ciaran affect Italy? The last I saw of it it was heading NE up the North Sea and filling?

Storm Ciarán: Floods ravage Tuscany leaving three dead

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

Three people are confirmed dead and six more are missing as heavy winds and rain buffet central Italy.

 

The cold front did reach right down across Europe

[GSP]

15 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

The cold front did reach right down across Europe

Thanks Jo. On the 2nd chart, looking at everything that appears to be connected back to the centre of the storm, it’s reach appears to have been felt from Finland to North Africa.

Quite a reach in the end from the initial focus around our country and France.

[matty40s]

Heres a start to finish of Cieran, clearly showing its effect on Europe.

 

Edited November 3, 2023 by matty40s

[richie3846]

2 hours ago, ChannelThunder said:

The public and certain media outlets seem to have named Debi tomorrow themselves, when all that the system will bring to the UK is some rain and maybe a stiff breeze for the south. Sick of seeing 'Debi' all over Facebook, and when you point out it's not true you get Metro articles claiming the MO have named it shoved in your face. 

I hope the Met Office spot all of this and do some kind of fact checking social media post to confirm that there's not a storm due tomorrow and it's definitely not named Debi!

Met Office verdict on Storm Debi as weather maps show new storm | Weather | News | Express.co.uk

WWW.EXPRESS.CO.UK

---

EXCLUSIVE: Weather forecasters have argued that incoming soggy bluster following Storm Ciaran won't be the next named storm.

Probably for the first time in living memory, the Express actually state clearly the truth, and make it clear that the Met Office will probably not be naming this storm. 

 

 

[stripeyfox]

53 minutes ago, richie3846 said:

Met Office verdict on Storm Debi as weather maps show new storm | Weather | News | Express.co.uk

WWW.EXPRESS.CO.UK

---

EXCLUSIVE: Weather forecasters have argued that incoming soggy bluster following Storm Ciaran won't be the next named storm.

Probably for the first time in living memory, the Express actually state clearly the truth, and make it clear that the Met Office will probably not be naming this storm. 

 

 

well, not quite. It isn't going to be named Debi is it - but rather Domingos (by the Spanish) - which I think means Debi won't be used.

But not worth a click on that link anyway.

[Midlands Ice Age]

Agree with most comments above about the performance of the Met Office during this storm. It was the MO that was closest to the final  track.

I too also agree with the comments being stated above about the yellow warnings.

The difference is not understood by the general public. 

it is on this topic of the general public that I wish to debate.....     (in the hope that something can be done).

What concerns me  specifically is the performance of the BBC  during this storm.

In 2015 they transferred their weather forecast franchise from the Met Office to the MeteoGroup.

My understanding is that they get updates twice a day from the group. I believe for their morning broadcasts and also for their evening ones.

I also do not know which of the weather forecasting models they use. (Is it an amalgam of all or do they use some human intervention)? I am told that they produce better graphics for their viewers/ listeners.

Anyway back to Wednesday morning as Ciaron was developing quickly.

Nearly all models had agreement that had it moving through the centre of England from somewhere just south of the Bristol Channel up to the Wash and out to the North Sea. Previously it had been a bit further North.

  

Quite correctly these encouraged the MO (and the BBC to issue the severe weather warnings., in the morning.

Now move forward to 17:00 Wednesday.

Just about all the models had detected a slight shift southwards and eastwards of the centre.

People at the time spotted it on here.... look above in the thread for the details.

However the BBC on Wed evening were still persisting with the centre sitting over the Midlands.

This is when the issues/problems started..

The general public had no idea that it was moving more south eastwards (about 100 to 150 miles) and that the major severity warnings were now transferring to the Channel Islands and Brittany. (and away from England).

Hence on Wed evening we had Hampshire closing all schools, general worrying right across Southern England, etc, over something that was not happening. Many people cancelled journeys to the south coast from around here, and  when I told people that things had 'changed', I was shouted down (and I do mean in actuality) as they trusted the BBC implicitly. 

Next morning I turned up at golf (as usual) expecting some sort of apology from them, as they had decided to play golf.

- only to be shouted down again as to how correct they were to cancel as the  BBC were quite correct and that as the BBC  had forecast we were slap bang in the middle of the low.

Hence flat calm and just a bit of drizzle.   (I live in the middle of the MIdlands).

My protestations were again ignored when I stated that rain was moving towards us from the North East. They had apparently been up at 05:00 to listen to the forecasts on Radio 5 Live, and was still forecasting the severe weather right across the south.

I was told that Hampshire/Cornwall had been devastated (already!!),  with housing collapsed and most roads blocked by fallen trees. furthermore they had seen it on the tele. They assured me that It was spreading across to the South East during the morning.

Being outvoted by 3 to 1,  I shut up, but was told by the fifth member,  that he trusted me rather than listening to the BBC!!!!!!!!! 

So, during yesterday pm on getting home, I sent them Emails with videos/picture copies from on here from the Channel islands contingent and also from Dorsetbred  of the paddling people on the beach, as to what a 70 mph storm really looks like. Eventually the acknowledgements came back.

I thought that was the end, but unusually I watched the 10:00 News Bulletin, which (second item talked about) spoke of the the major storm severely impacting 'England and the Channel Islands'.  

They showed video after video of fallen down trees, housing on the coast being swept away by the very high seas, until after the report had finished  and right at the end the newscaster stated that it was sent by the BBC weather/(climate?) specialist in JERSEY

Even I was tempted to believe that we were watching scenes from somewhere in England.

So, and preferring to believe it was not deliberately attempting to mislead, I think that it all started back on the timing of the forecasts on Wednesday evening showing 'old' data. 

Instead of acknowledging that it was wrong they still attempted  to 'cover up' the issue.

Now is my view of the BBC forecasts  incorrect?

I am concerned that people were apparently making decisions in implicit faith in the correctness of the BBC, (and thought that I was lieing or totally wrong>>>>).

Should the BBC change their data incoming  timetable form 'MeteoGroup, so as the have a better chance of avoiding this situation in the future , OR is it to be accepted in the form of cost cutting in the BBC.

Most of the population trust the BBC implicitly, should it not live up to its reputation by moving back to the MO.? 

Years ago, prior to Meteo, we used to have flash alerts for bad weather events flash up on the screen giving sometimes as little as 1 hr for  warnings.   It seems strange that in this world of rapid CC we have reduced the levels of 'correctness' of information, which are  being given to the general public. possibly enhanced by the different types of MO yellow warnings. In this instance there was  no change in this instance of the MO warnings system (still yellow), apart from reducing the length of the warning.

MIA

Edited November 3, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age

[richie3846]

14 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Agree with most comments above about the performance of the Met Office during this storm. It was the MO that was closest to the final  track.

I too also agree with the comments being stated above about the yellow warnings.

The difference is not understood by the general public. 

it is on this topic of the general public that I wish to debate.....     (in the hope that something can be done).

What concerns me  specifically is the performance of the BBC  during this storm.

In 2015 they transferred their weather forecast franchise from the Met Office to the MeteoGroup.

My understanding is that they get updates twice a day from the group. I believe for their morning broadcasts and also for their evening ones.

I also do not know which of the weather forecasting models they use. (Is it an amalgam of all or do they use some human intervention)? I am told that they produce better graphics for their viewers/ listeners.

Anyway back to Wednesday morning as Ciaron was developing quickly.

Nearly all models had agreement that had it moving through the centre of England from somewhere just south of the Bristol Channel up to the Wash and out to the North Sea. Previously it had been a bit further North.

  

Quite correctly these encouraged the MO (and the BBC to issue the severe weather warnings., in the morning.

Now move forward to 17:00 Wednesday.

Just about all the models had detected a slight shift southwards and eastwards of the centre.

People at the time spotted it on here.... look above in the thread for the details.

However the BBC on Wed evening were still persisting with the centre sitting over the Midlands.

This is when the issues/problems started..

The general public had no idea that it was moving more south eastwards and that the major severity warnings were now transferring to the Channel |Islands and Brittany. (and away from England).

Hence on wed evening we had Hampshire closing all schools, general worrying right across Southern England, etc, over someting that was not happening. Many people cancelled journeys to the south coast from around here, and  when I told people that things had 'changed', I was shouted down (and I do mean in actuality) as they trusted the BBC implicitly. 

Next morning I turned up at golf (as usual) expecting some sort of apology from them, as they had decided to play golf.

- only to be shouted down again as to how correct they were to cancel as the  BBC were quite correct and that as the BBC  had forecast we were slap bang in the middle of the low.

Hence flat calm and just a bit of drizzle.   (I live in the middle of the MIdlands).

My protestations were again ignored when I stated that rain we moving towards us from the North East. They had apparently been up at 05:00 to listen to the forecasts on Radio 5 Live, and was still forecasting the severe weather right across the south.

I was told that Hampshire/Cornwall had been devastated (already!!),  with housing collapsed and most roads blocked by fallen trees. furthermore they had seen it on the tele. They assured me that It was spreading across to the South East during the morning.

Being outvoted by 3 to 1,  I shut up, but was told by the fifth member,  that he trusted me rather than listening to the BBC!!!!!!!!! 

So, during yesterday pm on getting home, I sent them Emails with videos/picture copies from on here from the Channel islands contingent and also from Dorsetbred  of the paddling people on the beach, as to what a 70 mph storm really looks like. Eventually the acknowledgements came back.

I thought that was the end, but unusually I watched the 10:00 News Bulletin, which (second item talked about) spoke of the the major storm severely impacting 'England and the Channel Islands.  

They showed video after video of fallen down trees, housing on the coast being swept away by the very high seas, until after the report had finished  and right at the end the newscaster stated that it was sent by the BBC weather/(climate?) specialist in JERSEY

Even I was tempted to believe that we were watching scenes from somewhere in England.

So, and preferring to believe it was not deliberately attempting to mislead, I think that it all started back on the timing of the forecasts on Wednesday evening showing 'old' data. 

Instead of acknowledging that it was wrong they still attempted  to 'cover up' the issue.

Now is my view of the BBC forecasts  incorrect?

I am concerned that people were apparently making decisions in implicit faith in the correctness of the BBC, (and thought that I was lieing or totally wrong>>>>).

Should the BBC change their data incoming  timetable form 'MeteoGroup, so as the have a better chance of avoiding this situation in the future , OR is it to be accepted in the form of cost cutting in the BBC.

Most of the population trust the BBC implicitly, should it not live up to its reputation by moving back to the MO.? 

Years ago, prior to Meteo, we used to have flash alerts for bad weather events flash up on the screen giving sometimes as little as 1 hr for  warnings.   It seems strange that in this world of rapid CC we have reduced the levels of 'correctness' of information, which are  being given to the general public. possibly enhanced by the different types of MO yellow warnings. In this instance there was  no change in this instance of the MO warnings system (still yellow), apart from reducing the length of the warning.

MIA

In some respects the news feeds should be impartial and not directly connected to the BBC's own forecasts. As a supposedly unbiased outlet, they should be sourcing their news appropriately, even if that involves taking the superior knowledge from the met office, even if that conflicts with their second rate weather data. 

In this day of live feeds, and constant coverage (and hype), it's much more difficult to keep everything clean and tidy, like it was back in the day of the news at 1, 6 and 9. I believe the issues you raise are part of a bigger challenge for the BBC. They are trusted by many, but not by all. I've seen too many times how the BBC use their power to create bias, and then claim there is no bias. I personally cannot trust them to sensibly take the data available and produce relevant forecasts and coverage of a storm event like this. With constant live feeds, people could quite reasonably think half the country has been blown and washed away. I can imagine they have a mindset in the newsroom, that forces the hand of the editor, to keep pushing the live feed as much as possible, to ensure plenty of ongoing storyline for Joe Public. There isn't much of an option in that one sided world, for the editor to suddenly say, NO, it's time to cancel this feed. The other websites with feeds also, will be stuck in this same thinking pattern, therefore perpetuating the non-news, as there is no feasible or easy way to decide when to change course. I notice these love feeds tend to start ahead of the event - in some ways that reflects the age old story of the media's impact on the Mods and Rockers scenario, where the media whipped up a frenzy ahead of anything actually happening. 

I do think returning to the MO would be a step in the right direction for the BBC. I don't think it will solve many of the problems that this 24 hour live coverage creates. It's like the news outlets, especially the BBC with all their power, are bent on creating titillating narratives for consumers to relish like a novel. It seems wrong to me, and whilst it'll never happen, I think the days of limited news coverage did a better job of things. As you pointed out, in the past we did receive emergency news flashes where appropriate, and if for example a storm turned bad quickly, news bulletins would interrupt regular viewing to inform the public. 

[matty40s]

 

[FetchCB]

13 hours ago, IanT said:

Very much so! I think the MetO have handled this very well in forecast terms.

I don’t think their 2-axis matrix works for the “general public” though. A low likelihood of high-impact damage/disruption is NOT the same as a high likelihood of low-impact damage/disruption. Labelling both as “Yellow” causes much of the evident confusion.

The colours are an attempt to simplify two important dimensions into one. I think this is a misguided intent, and should be reconsidered. Both dimensions are important.

The Met office 2D matrix is a common tool used across industries worldwide to manage risk and the "calculations" that go into deciding probability and impact will have been carefully constructed. 

https://www.pmi.org/learning/library/risk-analysis-project-management-7070

 

This history shows how they arrived at the current system

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-weather-warnings/met-office-weather-warnings#:~:text=The National Severe Weather Warning,%2C or levels%2C were reached.

 

The impacts vary by weather type  

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/guides/severe-weather-advice . 

 

This video from Rmets shows how the decisions are made in issuing a weather warning 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=7lrvJHJrEfc

 

I think the issue is more the interpretation of the warning that is at fault and especially the media. In the past few days we have seen headlines stating "Danger to Life" warnings issued to Southern England when in fact the Amber warning is a "potential danger to life". I'm my job as a Project Manager I use these Matrices all the time to communicate risks to the project. It is down to me to communicate how that matrix should be understood and this context the Met Office do do this. If you visit their site it is full of information on how to interpret weather warnings. the problem is that people don't bother 

I have always viewed weather warnings along the following Yellow = be advised  Amber = Be prepared, red take action. The Met office do state that you should read the warning in conjunction with the colour to understand the risks  but as it is said you can lead a horse to water .........

[Fitzwis]

The clean up operation here in Jersey is now well underway, although several of our lanes remain impassable. No doubt our emergency and public services (who truly are doing an amazing job) will continue working well into the weekend.

Another walk with the bulldogs this morning delivered these images which highlight just how quickly the weather can change ... 

[Jo Farrow]

28 minutes ago, FetchCB said:

The Met office 2D matrix is a common tool used across industries worldwide to manage risk and the "calculations" that go into deciding probability and impact will have been carefully constructed. 

https://www.pmi.org/learning/library/risk-analysis-project-management-7070

 

This history shows how they arrived at the current system

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-weather-warnings/met-office-weather-warnings#:~:text=The National Severe Weather Warning,%2C or levels%2C were reached.

 

The impacts vary by weather type  

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/guides/severe-weather-advice . 

 

This video from Rmets shows how the decisions are made in issuing a weather warning 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=7lrvJHJrEfc

 

I think the issue is more the interpretation of the warning that is at fault and especially the media. In the past few days we have seen headlines stating "Danger to Life" warnings issued to Southern England when in fact the Amber warning is a "potential danger to life". I'm my job as a Project Manager I use these Matrices all the time to communicate risks to the project. It is down to me to communicate how that matrix should be understood and this context the Met Office do do this. If you visit their site it is full of information on how to interpret weather warnings. the problem is that people don't bother 

I have always viewed weather warnings along the following Yellow = be advised  Amber = Be prepared, red take action. The Met office do state that you should read the warning in conjunction with the colour to understand the risks  but as it is said you can lead a horse to water .........

 Yellow = be advised  Amber = Be prepared, red take action This was seemingly jettisoned by MO, with the all warnings are of Severe weather- but you need to understand the nuance of the matrix (which is hidden away) to read each colour, per event

A look back and a glance at what's next. 

More rain in the aftermath of Storm Ciaran

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

---

Another cleanup, with widespread damage to assess and repair in the Channel Islands after Storm Ciaran. The Spanish Met. has named Storm Domingos which will throw more rain over the UK.

 

[Crepuscular Ray]

I concur with Midlands Ice Age’s comments about the BBC not changing their information early enough, their inherent bias towards southern England. You wouldn’t have known that there was also bad weather in the north from a different system. 

 I don’t think the problem would be solved by returning to the Met Office as a data provider, though, as the delay is - as far as I can gather -  in the BBC’s own systems, which lead to a gap of some hours between the arrival of data from the model runs at six- or 12-hourly intervals and the final forecasts/graphics being produced. Obviously, this should be quicker now than it was before the introduction of computers, but I don’t think things would have been updated any quicker on the Beeb on Wednesday/Thursday whichever provider they used.
 

I doubt that the Hampshire and IoW Council, National Rail, etc. - unlike MIA’s golfing friends - rely on the BBC for planning purposes, rather than subscribing to the Met Office or any of the commercial providers. In addition to their inflexibility, the Beeb forecasts can never go into enough detail. My local council has roads ranging from sea level to 500 metres within the space of under 20 miles; the Beeb just can’t cover that level of information in a 2-minute national forecast. 

 

[alexisj9]

3 hours ago, richie3846 said:

Met Office verdict on Storm Debi as weather maps show new storm | Weather | News | Express.co.uk

WWW.EXPRESS.CO.UK

---

EXCLUSIVE: Weather forecasters have argued that incoming soggy bluster following Storm Ciaran won't be the next named storm.

Probably for the first time in living memory, the Express actually state clearly the truth, and make it clear that the Met Office will probably not be naming this storm. 

 

 

Yet still call it debi in the headline. 

Perhaps so people know what's been called debi isn't debi?

[TonyH]

On 02/11/2023 at 12:29, WeatherArc said:

Just seen this,  holy s**t 

High 3cape, strong shear and windprofile, good cape. I cant wrap my head around it, in November of all months. 

The biggest tornado outbreak ever in the UK was in November a while back.

1981 United Kingdom tornado outbreak - Wikipedia

EN.M.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

 

Edited November 3, 2023 by TonyH

[TonyH]

On 02/11/2023 at 14:24, WeatherArc said:

Thats some of the worst tornado damage ive ever seen in the UK, roof completely ripped off. 

 

 

Plenty worse such as the Birmingham tornado tore off many roofs.

2005 Birmingham tornado - Wikipedia

EN.M.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

 

Edited November 3, 2023 by TonyH

[IanT]

1 hour ago, FetchCB said:

The Met office 2D matrix is a common tool used across industries worldwide to manage risk and the "calculations" that go into deciding probability and impact will have been carefully constructed. 

https://www.pmi.org/learning/library/risk-analysis-project-management-7070

 

This history shows how they arrived at the current system

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-weather-warnings/met-office-weather-warnings#:~:text=The National Severe Weather Warning,%2C or levels%2C were reached.

 

The impacts vary by weather type  

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/guides/severe-weather-advice . 

 

This video from Rmets shows how the decisions are made in issuing a weather warning 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=7lrvJHJrEfc

 

I think the issue is more the interpretation of the warning that is at fault and especially the media. In the past few days we have seen headlines stating "Danger to Life" warnings issued to Southern England when in fact the Amber warning is a "potential danger to life". I'm my job as a Project Manager I use these Matrices all the time to communicate risks to the project. It is down to me to communicate how that matrix should be understood and this context the Met Office do do this. If you visit their site it is full of information on how to interpret weather warnings. the problem is that people don't bother 

I have always viewed weather warnings along the following Yellow = be advised  Amber = Be prepared, red take action. The Met office do state that you should read the warning in conjunction with the colour to understand the risks  but as it is said you can lead a horse to water .........

Thank you.

In the context of communicating severe weather warnings to the general public, do you believe that the final (colour coding) step in the MetO’s current methodology enhances the effectiveness of their output or detracts from it?

[Crepuscular Ray]

21 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Your probably correct that Councils and Companies no better than to trust the BBC. But I would suggest not all.

However if not the BBC,  (Most easy to access) then who do they use?

Companies like Netweather. 

[alexisj9]

22 minutes ago, Crepuscular Ray said:

Companies like Netweather. 

In emails I received, they were in contact with the council and met office, I think schools might be connected to mass emails that get sent to specific areas affected, as are of course the council's, and then decisions are made. News agencies have nothing to do with it.