Storm Ciarán

[carinthian]

The Low , not yet formed is expected to develop south of Newfoundland over the coming 24hours. I think the models will until then continue to vary the path and the swath of the most powerful winds. This time tomorrow will be the crucial forecast for the storm intensity warnings from Wednesday into Thursday period.

C

[Mcconnor8]

UKMO has extremely high gusts all the way along the channel on Thursday morning.

[danm]

 

[Wivenswold]

35 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:

Sadly, on the rail network, a lot of people tend to ignore advice. You then end up in the situation of thousands of people stranded, with no rail replacement due to adverse weather conditions. 
 

All it takes it for a few trees to fall onto the overhead wires, which can cause disruption for several hours. 

Looking at the latest from the UKMO, I'm already thinking about which operators will run a reduced service. Transport for Wales, Cross Country, GWR, South West Railway, Southern, Thameslink, South Eastern, C2C and Greater Anglia I reckon.   The rain alone will cause some problems.

[James Maidstone]

29 minutes ago, danm said:

 

To me he seems to be playing the storm down a little in compairson to the charts most of the models are churning out

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, Somerset girl said:

I expect schools will shut if its really bad , health and safety and all that. Trees in leaf and strong winds aren't fun .

Depends where it tracks and how long it really lasts I suppose. 

 

Holiday here! 30th to 3rd

[Fitzwis]

4 hours ago, Darren Vidamour said:

Hope my holiday destination every year is not hit hard! All them trees on the green lanes......Lets hope for a downgrade for everyone!

Absolutely. We lost many trees during The Great Storm of 87' and it's taken the last 36 years or so to recover much of the foliage lost during that event. Everything crossed for downgrades although I fear we're now inside the 72 hour reliable model timeframe and it's not looking too rosy. Our only saving grace will be if the strongest winds occur from the south west and west as the island's topography provides an element of shelter from these directions. 

Edited October 30, 2023 by Fitzwis

[Liam Burge]

Well; I'm thinking of travelling on a train back home Thursday afternoon. Hopefully Ciaran won't be as bad as forecast. Hope everyone on the coast stays safe.

[matty40s]

23 minutes ago, Wivenswold said:

Looking at the latest from the UKMO, I'm already thinking about which operators will run a reduced service. Transport for Wales, Cross Country, GWR, South West Railway, Southern, Thameslink, South Eastern, C2C and Greater Anglia I reckon.   The rain alone will cause some problems.

You missed out Avanti West Coast mainline.

They dont need an excuse to run a reduced service or cancel everything altogether.

[weatherobsuk]

I'm thinking anyone at the top of Spinnaker Tower would be getting quite the experience on Thursday 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

11 minutes ago, toggerobz said:

I'm thinking anyone at the top of Spinnaker Tower would be getting quite the experience on Thursday 

hope not too bad, our areas look under the 'eye' on Thurs, going to Kings Bromley whatever its like

[Mapantz]

UKV has been slowly lowering wind gusts for here. 

Down to 50mph now.

[Liam Burge]

Just now, Mapantz said:

UKV has been slowly lowering wind gusts for here. 

Down to 50mph now.

Same here. Only 46mph for my location

[TwisterGirl81]

Well winds for Exeter are predicted to be in the low 70’s for mph according to some weather sites which was more than they were forecasted this morning  so looks like the storm is tracking further north, if it tracks even slightly further north by 100 miles then I’d imagine the gusts will be stronger than that and would be an historic even for southern England.

I think Exeter reached 86mph during the burns day storm in 1990 from what I’ve read so doesn’t seems to be in that category ‘yet’ but definitely one of the strongest storms in a long while if we do in fact get into the 70mph ranges. We really need to keep an eye on forecasts for this storm from here on out.

Can’t lie, I do like a good storm but hoping people take heed of any weather warnings, with how wet the ground is/will be I’d imagine lots of trees will go down, be safe people 

Edited October 30, 2023 by TwisterGirl81

[TwisterGirl81]

11 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

UKV has been slowly lowering wind gusts for here. 

Down to 50mph now.

Different weather models are all over the place, think some aren’t picking up on putting the system further north, UKV must be one of them, whereas others are predicting low 70’s mph for our areas, wonder who will be correct?

Edited October 30, 2023 by TwisterGirl81

[LightningLover]

Ouch!

[ANYWEATHER]

UKV showing most of the strongest of the winds out in the English channel.....

[LightningLover]

1 minute ago, ANYWEATHER said:

UKV showing most of the strongest of the winds out in the English channel.....

Meanwhile Coastal East Sussex gets 90-95mph winds. Unbelievable run for us...

[Mapantz]

Something I am keen on; The GFS gives a 22mb drop here in just 6 hours. Looking very likely my record will go.

[Wivenswold]

Damage possible anywhere that shows red to white on that map. This is looking more and more like 1987's little brother. 

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

'Im sure I'll still be forced to do battle with school runs!!!

I'm hoping my kids school will be closed, I'm reluctant to send them to school, walking over a down with trees, going to a school that is on the lea of the down in front, won't be good.

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, Penguin16 said:

Go to the shops now and raid the toilet rolls and bread before the commoners get wind of this. 

Lol don't start that nonsense again, I'm shopping Wednesday, and there better be stuff in the shops, my normal shopping day, although I'm now watching that day for winds too 

[Metwatch]

Copying over a segment from the post I made on the Model thread half an hour ago:

 

In the closer time frame, a very strong thermal contrast is emerging from the states, which allows an almost 200mph jetstream to race through the north Atlantic, rapidly deepening the low pressure to become our next named storm by Thursday night. The low is currently situated over north eastern part of USA.

I've seen some posts that the jetstream has been analysed as being stronger than what models expected over Canada, which may allow Storm Ciaran to deepen even further, and also track slightly further north, putting more of southern England at risk of some very damaging wind gusts.

 

Still a great deal of uncertainty, with the latest ECM bringing the low further south compared to ICON, GFS, Arpege, and also that is shown with the dalmatian plots in the final attachment. Small changes in the output will lead to some big differences in the coming days.

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, IanT said:

I think it’s a little early to be cancelling plans for Thursday. There is clearly still a range of outcomes in terms of the track and intensity of the system, and forecast confidence will rise in the usual way as time progresses. The yellow warning is there now to raise awareness, so yes it’s time to contemplate/advise that some flexibility might be needed. But not yet to make definitive decisions as to what you will and won’t be doing on Thursday.

Not sure pool practice is priority, and I'm on the SE coast, so I'll be very surprised if it's not bad here 

[alexisj9]

42 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

UKV showing most of the strongest of the winds out in the English channel.....

Yes, unless you live in a coastal town, where it looks quite concerning again.