Storm Ciarán

[Mapantz]

Amber's in place.

[Jo Farrow]

Amber wind warnings in two parts a western area for morning, southeastern section for most of Thursday

 

Edited October 31, 2023 by Jo Farrow
add pic

[Skullzrulerz]

UK weather warnings

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings.

"During the early hours of Thursday northwesterly winds will develop across the Isles of Scilly and southwestern parts of England and Wales. Here, gusts are likely to reach 70-80 mph in some coastal areas and in a few coastal spots may exceed 85 mph. Inland, gusts of 65-75 mph are possible. A sharp cut-off is expected regarding how far northeast these very high winds extend, this boundary still uncertain and dependent on the exact track of Storm Ciarán. Wind will gradually start to ease from mid-morning. Very large waves could bring additional impacts to coastal areas."

 

[MAF]

Just now, Jo Farrow said:

Amber wind warnings in two parts a western area for morning, southeastern section for most of Thursday

 

spot on with your prediction of warning updates between 1000 - 1100 Jo

[Dancerwithwings]

Full picture 

[Jo Farrow]

Just now, MAF said:

spot on with your prediction of warning updates between 1000 - 1100 Jo

they have a conference, and review latest model , ready to brief other people. But can be appear at other times

[Ian Ballinger]

The yellow warning for my area has been cancelled 

[matty40s]

5 minutes ago, Ian Ballinger said:

The yellow warning for my area has been cancelled 

It's probably been withdrawn until the new ones come out around 11-11.30, quite often happens.

[matty40s]

1 hour ago, pages said:

Won't be any amber warnings if latest Icon is correct big move south.

This aged well...

[ModestMention]

24 minutes ago, IanT said:

Agreed - when might we expect to see it?

The form horse here is for the system to head south of early modelling with France experiencing more of an “event” than southern UK. 

Normally about 14:00, but can be later by 90minutes or so.

Edited October 31, 2023 by ModestMention

[Mapantz]

Pressure is hovering around 1001 here at the moment. Amazing to think it'll drop over 45mb in two days. I'm plumping for a min of 954 here. That'll beat my record by 12mb.

[Lincs Observation]

1 hour ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Shifts south in the ICON and GFS 06z, so while not out of the woods yet for the worst impacts to the South coast and inland, it does *look* like we will be spared with the UKMO/ECM also in agreement on a more southerly track.

Beat me too it, yep the big hitters starting to align now, however 

a tad of caution still needed until the last run of the day I feel things can and have changed in the past at short notice that said modern modelling is pretty accurate these days.

looks like the uk has dodged a particularly nasty bullet.

[LightningLover]

06z ARPEGE still going for 85-90mph for channel coasts

[sunnijim]

5 minutes ago, Lincs Observation said:

Beat me too it, yep the big hitters starting to align now, however 

a tad of caution still needed until the last run of the day I feel things can and have changed in the past at short notice that said modern modelling is pretty accurate these days.

looks like the uk has dodged a particularly nasty bullet.

Parts of the UK *may* have, big conovations such as London,could get lively Thursday afternoon and may go amber if the exit point is North of the Wash 

Still some large cities involved in Amber, Brighton,Southampton all in rush hour,so to say the UK has dodged a bullet when gusts in excess of 85mph are being predicted is not quite the case.

[Wivenswold]

60 mph gusts in London will cause issues. In fact, 60 mph in much of the SE can cause problems.

[daniel barber]

Just now, Wivenswold said:

60 mph gusts in London will cause issues. In fact, 60 mph in much of the SE can cause problems.

It can. But its not unheard of. Usually happens a few times a year. Away from the immediate coast its still not looking that bad yet. Although models can adjust resolution closer to the time. Depending also on the track if those big winds in the channel move up into east anglia/ South East. So far it doesn't look that bad

[TallPaul]

3 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

Parts of the UK *may* have, big conovations such as London,could get lively Thursday afternoon and may go amber if the exit point is North of the Wash 

Still some large cities involved in Amber, Brighton,Southampton all in rush hour,so to say the UK has dodged a bullet when gusts in excess of 85mph are being predicted is not quite the case.

Absolutely - quite rare for Plymouth to get an amber alert for wind, but I'm really now taking this seriously as the highest impact is during commute time... and when I will be finishing my shift at 06:30!

[Wivenswold]

3 minutes ago, daniel barber said:

It can. But its not unheard of. Usually happens a few times a year. Away from the immediate coast its still not looking that bad yet. Although models can adjust resolution closer to the time. Depending also on the track if those big winds in the channel move up into east anglia/ South East. So far it doesn't look that bad

We've not had a 60 mph gust in years and the trees are in full leaf, so it's not as common as you'd think. 

[philglossop]

4 minutes ago, TallPaul said:

Absolutely - quite rare for Plymouth to get an amber alert for wind, but I'm really now taking this seriously as the highest impact is during commute time... and when I will be finishing my shift at 06:30!

Agree. Given its gales before increasing then expect issues with Tamar Bridge , railway lines etc.  Factor in high tide times and it's got potential to be nasty right across Devon and Cornwall. 

[daniel barber]

9 minutes ago, Wivenswold said:

We've not had a 60 mph gust in years and the trees are in full leaf, so it's not as common as you'd think. 

60mph gusts in Essex are almost a yearly occurance. Look at last year storm eunice had winds gust at over 70mph  across the county. Not attempting to downplay it at all. But right now it's certainly not looking much different to your annual windstorm which causes problems. Edit this is only for this local area. Other areas like the coast snd southwest and Dover for example it's looking bad

Edited October 31, 2023 by daniel barber

[Freeze]

1 minute ago, daniel barber said:

60mph gusts in Essex are almost a yearly occurance. Look at last year storm eunice had winds gust at over 70mph  across the county. 

Storm eunice isn't a good example to prove your point as that had a ruturn period of 20-30  years.

[philglossop]

2 minutes ago, daniel barber said:

60mph gusts in Essex are almost a yearly occurance. Look at last year storm eunice had winds gust at over 70mph  across the county. 

No disrespect but Eunice was February. October/November storms are different beasts. 

[Wivenswold]

2 minutes ago, daniel barber said:

60mph gusts in Essex are almost a yearly occurance. Look at last year storm eunice had winds gust at over 70mph  across the county. 

Storm Eunice highest recorded gust in Essex was 46 kts which is 52.94mph
Central London had 39 kts or 44.88 mph

[daniel barber]

1 minute ago, philglossop said:

No disrespect but Eunice was February. October/November storms are different beasts. 

I agree with the trees in leaf it will put extra stress 

 

Just now, Wivenswold said:

Storm Eunice highest recorded gust in Essex was 46 kts which is 52.94mph
Central London had 39 kts or 44.88 mph

That's not eunice

[Mapantz]

2 minutes ago, Wivenswold said:

Storm Eunice highest recorded gust in Essex was 46 kts which is 52.94mph
Central London had 39 kts or 44.88 mph

That was Dudley.

The Needles recorded 122mph during Eunice.