Storm Ciarán

[Mcconnor8]

Really is going to the wire as regards to very severe impacts to the South coast and far South East, rarely do such small movements in track make such a large difference, nervous couple of days ahead.

[Jo Farrow]

The Matrix is already right up at HIGH impacts, just waiting for the certainty, for the Likelihood to increase and move it up to Amber

Which is why red warnings only appear with short lead times

[carinthian]

15 hours ago, carinthian said:

The Low , not yet formed is expected to develop south of Newfoundland over the coming 24hours. I think the models will until then continue to vary the path and the swath of the most powerful winds. This time tomorrow will be the crucial forecast for the storm intensity warnings from Wednesday into Thursday period.

C

The low has now formed a nice cyclonic circulation currently  south of Newfoundland with central pressure of 997mb. It will continue to track SE  with the main jet on its southern flack and forecast to continue to deepen with its centre a to be aprox half way between the Azores and SW  Ireland by 06z tomorrow morning. Its in this zone when rapid  deepening is expected to occur. Still a very  difficult one to predict exact  tracking of the low across England into to Thursday . This is crucial to getting it right for forecasting the predicted hurricane force wind zone. Northern France, English Channel or Southern England ?  Sure the severity of warnings will soon be decided. Maybe later today. Some big calls from the UKMO and French Forecasting agency to make on this one ! Good luck.

 C 

[Jo Farrow]

2 minutes ago, carinthian said:

The low has now formed a nice cyclonic circulation currently  south of Newfoundland with central pressure of 997mb. It will continue to track SE  with the main jet on its southern flack and forecast to continue to deepen with its centre a to be aprox half way between the Azores and SW  Ireland by 06z tomorrow morning. Its in this zone when rapid  deepening is expected to occur. Still a very  difficult one to predict exact  tracking of the low across England into to Thursday . This is crucial to getting it right for forecasting the predicted hurricane force wind zone. Northern France, English Channel or Southern England ?  Sure the severity of warnings will soon be decided. Maybe later today. Some big calls from the UKMO and French Forecasting agency to make on this one ! Good luck.

 C 

Meteo France graphic

[daniel barber]

Inland gusts of 50 to 60mph shouldn't really warrant an amber. Perhaps given the wet ground maybe. But the models so far don't show anything to crazy Inland. Extreme southern coast amber yes. If these winds are upped then yeah amber will be issued. Need more model clarification.

Edited October 31, 2023 by daniel barber

[pages]

1 minute ago, daniel barber said:

Inland gusts of 50 to 60mph shouldn't really warrant an amber. Perhaps given the wet ground maybe. But the models so far don't show anything to crazy Inland. Extreme southern coast amber yes. If these winds are upped then yeah amber will be issued. Need more model clarification 

Won't be any amber warnings if latest Icon is correct big move south.

[daniel barber]

Just now, pages said:

Won't be any amber warnings if latest Icon is correct big move south.

I'm sure there will be moves back and forth. With one run showing disruptive gusts inland. And the next your usual gales. Either way to issue an amber they need some sort of confidence regarding impact. We haven't got that yet. So far yellow seems okay to me. 

[carinthian]

22 hours ago, carinthian said:

Quite a bit of interest over in Euroland regarding the forthcoming stormy period. Talk of hurricane winds into Bay of Biscay and possibly English Channel. However, the main concern seems to be possible development of a marginal storm formation over the continent on the southern flank of Storm Ciaran as it moves over England. Heavy rainfall amounts for Northern France and Low countries plus possible wind distruption. Swiss weather experts expect some large amounts of snowfall above 2000m falling to 1500m on passage of the main cold front associated with the above developments. Certainly , there will be some intense scrutiny's of the Atlantic the low formation and track by the various weather agencies over the coming hours. Potential to bring widespread disruption to quite a few Western European countries as the week progresses.

C

What a turbulent chart that is for Western Europe. Not only wind, rain , floods to contend with, possible huge amounts of snowfall for the higher French and Swiss Alps provided by marginal storms in the wake of Ciaran. Certainly a interesting week for avid weather enthusiast. Think now is a matter of sit back and watch the power of nature as it unfolds.

C 

Edited October 31, 2023 by carinthian

[philglossop]

Email from met office (Penny Tranter) to us in work.

Current yellow warnings - so it is highly likely that these weather warnings are going to escalate to Amber, possibly even red. 

[Darren Vidamour]

15 hours ago, Fitzwis said:

Absolutely. We lost many trees during The Great Storm of 87' and it's taken the last 36 years or so to recover much of the foliage lost during that event. Everything crossed for downgrades although I fear we're now inside the 72 hour reliable model timeframe and it's not looking too rosy. Our only saving grace will be if the strongest winds occur from the south west and west as the island's topography provides an element of shelter from these directions. 

Well good luck with everything! I sure will be logging into the webcam on St Ouens Thursday just to get a idea of the impact of this storm. 

 

[James Maidstone]

37 minutes ago, daniel barber said:

Inland gusts of 50 to 60mph shouldn't really warrant an amber. Perhaps given the wet ground maybe. But the models so far don't show anything to crazy Inland. Extreme southern coast amber yes. If these winds are upped then yeah amber will be issued. Need more model clarification.

60 would inland, especially over the South East

[Mcconnor8]

Shifts south in the ICON and GFS 06z, so while not out of the woods yet for the worst impacts to the South coast and inland, it does *look* like we will be spared with the UKMO/ECM also in agreement on a more southerly track.

[TSNWK]

4 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Shifts south in the ICON and GFS 06z, so while not out of the woods yet for the worst impacts to the South coast and inland, it does *look* like we will be spared with the UKMO/ECM also in agreement on a more southerly track.

Good news! Another shunt south on the 12Z please... definitely a general theme of low pressures trending south as we get nearer... far more apparent I  winter when some of us are checking 5 miles corrections.   

[James Maidstone]

10 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Shifts south in the ICON and GFS 06z, so while not out of the woods yet for the worst impacts to the South coast and inland, it does *look* like we will be spared with the UKMO/ECM also in agreement on a more southerly track.

GFS 6z enters further South but hooks NE fairly dramatically and exits over The Wash.  If it were to "hook" further West then damaging winds still on the agenda for the South.  Still lots to firm up, the storms formation is still in its infancy don't forget

[snowspotter]

Doesn’t look like much of note if you believe the met office generated forecast for inland south east areas. Here in Reigate it’s saying maximum gusts 42mph on Thursday, hardly a repeat of the legendary 1987 storm . Accept maybe some coastal areas will see more 

[mountain shadow]

37 minutes ago, Darren Vidamour said:

Well good luck with everything! I sure will be logging into the webcam on St Ouens Thursday just to get a idea of the impact of this storm. 

 

Yes, Channel Islands looking like the worst impact, perhaps he extreme South East of England too, unless there is a change in the models to pull the storm North again.

[sunnijim]

8 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Good news! Another shunt south on the 12Z please... definitely a general theme of low pressures trending south as we get nearer... far more apparent I  winter when some of us are checking 5 miles corrections.   

Most models agree on an exit via the Wash,some disagreement now on approach,North/South.

Think it clear that some parts of England are going to get somthing noteworthy, be it the West of Cornwall or the Kent coast/ Isle of wight.

Don't see a huge Northern shift at this stage.

The exit point is interesting,further Nortb than the wash,means greater areas of the SE are in trouble.

[Daydream Boy]

Usually always the case with these potent storms. Trends further and further south. Alot of rain still I'm sure but looks like ending up a normal autumnal windy day apart from the CI and Northern France getting the worst of it. 

[Wivenswold]

14 minutes ago, snowspotter said:

Doesn’t look like much of note if you believe the met office generated forecast for inland south east areas. Here in Reigate it’s saying maximum gusts 42mph on Thursday, hardly a repeat of the legendary 1987 storm . Accept maybe some coastal areas will see more 

As has been said many times here, this is an emerging situation. Ignore any computer generated forecasts and what apps are saying today. Listen to actual meteorologists doing proper spoken forecasts in situations like this and don't assume what is forecast now will be what happens. 

The storm is forming over 1,000 miles away. The forecast here will have subtle changes many times before tomorrow night. Don't write this off until Friday.

Edited October 31, 2023 by Wivenswold

[ModestMention]

I'm waiting for the MetOffice YouTube channel's Deep Dive; it will be fascinating this week. 

[James Maidstone]

Just now, ModestMention said:

I'm waiting for the MetOffice YouTube channel's Deep Dive; it will be fascinating this week. 

Saturday wants some attention too, far from a done deal

[sunnijim]

10 minutes ago, Daydream Boy said:

Usually always the case with these potent storms. Trends further and further south. Alot of rain still I'm sure but looks like ending up a normal autumnal windy day apart from the CI and Northern France getting the worst of it. 

Can you think of some examples?

To be fair the met office fax charts have been solid on the postiotioning for three days now,model variance of trending South or North hasn't swayed the pros yet.

[ANYWEATHER]

The Ecm has the least wobbles the last few days. Last night’s and this morning charts look virtually identical to each other……

[IanT]

Just now, ModestMention said:

I'm waiting for the MetOffice YouTube channel's Deep Dive; it will be fascinating this week. 

Agreed - when might we expect to see it?

The form horse here is for the system to head south of early modelling with France experiencing more of an “event” than southern UK. 

[ModestMention]

12 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

Do you have to be premium to get that comparison chart, or just registered, just checked it out, but can't find these box charts.

That would be a relief in my book.

I do have premium. But logging out I still see this. Just click around the map.

 

Try this link it for Salisbury https://www.windy.com/51.076/-1.780/wind?gfs,50.477,-1.686,8

and your location: https://www.windy.com/51.133/1.291/wind?gfs,50.189,4.241,8