Storm Ciarán

[FetchCB]

1 hour ago, mike57 said:

I think this is the problem with the impact and probability matrix as it stands. A severe danger to life storm still gets the yellow warning while probabilility is low, the same warning as much less severe immenent storm. Peoples respsonse to the the two scenarios needs to be different, a severe storm will mean a potential shutdown, where as the less severe storm wont affect most people, unless you are doing something outside for example.

It depends on what the impacts are. If you gave out a ref or Amber warning to a low probability storm and it did turn out to not happen people will start to ignore it. Do not forget also that these warnings are not just for information, they also create a chain of actions within the civil contingency space. Amber and red warnings normally entail an emergency response command centre to be inacted(with it's associated costs). In some cases leave cancelled, shifts rearranged etc. 

The yellow warning currently in place is to raise awareness. If the storm shifts further north or its characteristics change so that the impacts become either more certain then I'm sure an Amber warning will be issued. As that confidence increases and the effects more significant then a red will be issued. Also worth bearing in mind that geographically the same wind speed for example will potentially invoke a different warning. An 80 mph hitting London will have far greater impact than say Fort William (as an example) 

[FetchCB]

Sure it's been posted before but for info 

What are the National Severe Weather Warning Service Impact tables?

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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Make sure you know what to do when severe weather is forecast

 

[pages]

12z icon slightly further north and deeper, not looking south coast

[Mcconnor8]

15 minutes ago, pages said:

12z icon slightly further north and deeper, not looking south coast

Yep, close to 100mph winds on the South coast in the early hours of Thursday according to this run, 06z run next to it.

 

Perhaps even more worryingly the Arpege now brings it through North Wales which brings London and the rest of the inland South East in to play for very high wind speeds as well. Quite a big shift North from its earlier runs.

 

Edited October 30, 2023 by Mcconnor8

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, mike57 said:

I think this is the problem with the impact and probability matrix as it stands. A severe danger to life storm still gets the yellow warning while probabilility is low, the same warning as much less severe immenent storm. Peoples respsonse to the the two scenarios needs to be different, a severe storm will mean a potential shutdown, where as the less severe storm wont affect most people, unless you are doing something outside for example.

I've cancelled what I was doing on Thursday, and it only has a ten minute walk down the road, unless it moves significantly south, it'll hit here with at least 80moh regardless of what it does further in land, I'm not leaving my house.

[WeatherWatchmanG]

London looks like it might be complaining what all the fus is about, at least I hope that is the outcome.

[Wivenswold]

I think that's very wise. I'm off work on Thursday and staying indoors. 
Even areas with 50mph gusts will have impacts as the trees are in full leaf. It can take as little as a wayward sheet of plastic or a small tree branch on the overhead wires above railway lines to bring services to a grinding halt. 
Expect train operators to run reduced and slower services on Thursday.  

4 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I've cancelled what I was doing on Thursday, and it only has a ten minute walk down the road, unless it moves significantly south, it'll hit here with at least 80moh regardless of what it does further in land, I'm not leaving my house.

 

[Harry's House]

4 minutes ago, Wivenswold said:

I think that's very wise. I'm off work on Thursday and staying indoors. 
Even areas with 50mph gusts will have impacts as the trees are in full leaf. It can take as little as a wayward sheet of plastic or a small tree branch on the overhead wires above railway lines to bring services to a grinding halt. 
Expect train operators to run reduced and slower services on Thursday.  

 

Looks like I will stay inside on Thursday as well - nothing planned anyway. There are plenty of trees round here in full leaf.

[SizzlingHeat]

If that arpege 12z is anywhere close to the mark then that would be seriously concerning for so many people. Gusts along the south coast of 90-100mph and 80mph inland. Very very worrying indeed.

[Mcconnor8]

1 minute ago, SizzlingHeat said:

If that arpege 12z is anywhere close to the mark then that would be seriously concerning for so many people. Gusts along the south coast of 90-100mph and 80mph inland. Very very worrying indeed.

GFS still coming out but it also looks like going North and deeper.

 

And it does support the above wind gust speeds you mention.

Edited October 30, 2023 by Mcconnor8

[pages]

GFS T60 5mb deeper and further north. If gets any deeper or further north it be devastating 

[mountain shadow]

4 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

GFS still coming out but it also looks like going North and deeper.

 

And it does support the above wind gust speeds you mention.

Looks like coastal wind gusts of 100mph.

 

[Guest]

GFS 12z is deeper and a touch north again:

Compared to the 06z GFS:

[Wivenswold]

My in-depth assessment of those GFS charts is......Oh dear.

[SizzlingHeat]

1 minute ago, Wivenswold said:

My in-depth assessment of those GFS charts is......Oh dear.

I don't think I've ever seen such a deep low modelled within 60 hours across the south of the UK. That would be horrific and red warnings widely for Thursday morning. Although it could still end up further south. Very fine margins 

[Scuba steve]

Just now, SizzlingHeat said:

I don't think I've ever seen such a deep low modelled within 60 hours across the south of the UK. That would be horrific and red warnings widely for Thursday morning. Although it could still end up further south. Very fine margins 

I’d imagine as modelling confidence grows we will see downgrades though whatever happens it looks like a period of nasty weather 

[philglossop]

Planning ahead already, Thursday is looking utterly brutal for us. If that move North is right, then we get hours of Gales. 

There will be trees down here in South Devon and Plymouth of that I'm certain. 

BIG work meeting tomorrow on pplanned highway works. Most will get shelved I guess. 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

41 minutes ago, Harry's House said:

Looks like I will stay inside on Thursday as well - nothing planned anyway. There are plenty of trees round here in full leaf.

'Im sure I'll still be forced to do battle with school runs!!!

[Penguin16]

Go to the shops now and raid the toilet rolls and bread before the commoners get wind of this. 

[Mcconnor8]

5 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

'Im sure I'll still be forced to do battle with school runs!!!

Not sure the morning one would be too advisable if todays 12z runs come to fruition

[*Stormforce~beka*]

2 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Not sure the morning one would be too advisable if todays 12z runs come to fruition

Then I need to pray that the schools are shut!

[Somerset girl]

I expect schools will shut if its really bad , health and safety and all that. Trees in leaf and strong winds aren't fun .

Depends where it tracks and how long it really lasts I suppose. 

 

[IanT]

I think it’s a little early to be cancelling plans for Thursday. There is clearly still a range of outcomes in terms of the track and intensity of the system, and forecast confidence will rise in the usual way as time progresses. The yellow warning is there now to raise awareness, so yes it’s time to contemplate/advise that some flexibility might be needed. But not yet to make definitive decisions as to what you will and won’t be doing on Thursday.

[Wivenswold]

It does depend where you are, where you're going and what you'll be doing. 

Those heading across the channel on a ferry or going out sailing around the UK on Thursday should cancel plans or have contingencies in place.
If you're flying into or out of the South, be ready for a bumpy flight and possible diversions to more sheltered inland airports.  
Those on the South coast should start preparing for a major weather event. 
The rest of us should keep a close eye on things and be ready to change plans. 

Planning ahead is far better than assuming you'll be fine and that the forecast will improve. The fewer people out on the roads and travelling by train, the better. 

[Josh Rubio]

7 minutes ago, Wivenswold said:

Planning ahead is far better than assuming you'll be fine and that the forecast will improve. The fewer people out on the roads and travelling by train, the better. 

Sadly, on the rail network, a lot of people tend to ignore advice. You then end up in the situation of thousands of people stranded, with no rail replacement due to adverse weather conditions. 
 

All it takes it for a few trees to fall onto the overhead wires, which can cause disruption for several hours.