Storm Ciarán

[philglossop]

It's the windup and SE gales which do the damage down here. Then the veer which will focus on north coast of Cornwall and Devon but we have to get there. 

[carinthian]

Quite a bit of interest over in Euroland regarding the forthcoming stormy period. Talk of hurricane winds into Bay of Biscay and possibly English Channel. However, the main concern seems to be possible development of a marginal storm formation over the continent on the southern flank of Storm Ciaran as it moves over England. Heavy rainfall amounts for Northern France and Low countries plus possible wind distruption. Swiss weather experts expect some large amounts of snowfall above 2000m falling to 1500m on passage of the main cold front associated with the above developments. Certainly , there will be some intense scrutiny's of the Atlantic the low formation and track by the various weather agencies over the coming hours. Potential to bring widespread disruption to quite a few Western European countries as the week progresses.

C

Edited October 30, 2023 by carinthian

[Sidsnake]

I think it's going to be a case of the next two days getting a bit prepared.  Topping up the powerbanks and positioning candles etc.  A dear friend of mine lives in Wadhurst Sussex.  She says that even a mere gust can throw their power out.  I remember waking up in 1987 to utter carnage.

[Wivenswold]

My remaining chum from school lives in Seddlescomb and ended up buying a back-up generator because their connection to the National Grid is so fragile.  Lots of mature trees in the countryside between the North and South Downs, the ground is saturated and it takes just one gust for the infrastructure for thousands of homes to break.

Yes, I lived in London in 1987 and even there it was carnage. We lost power at 4.11am and got it back about 12 hours later, it felt like the 1970s. 

Edited October 30, 2023 by Wivenswold

[sunnijim]

GFS bringing the SE of England into play again with some of the highest winds on its latest output.

Other models much the same in terms of Southern England impacts.

The initial approach of the storm seems to be agreed upon between models,what seems to be happening,which has already been touched upon,is more of NW bend as it exits to the NE into the North Sea

This pulls some extreme winds into the SE Thursday afternoon.

A track not dissimilar to October 1987.

Although it has to be said,nothing like as severe even on the most extreme ensembles.

Still plenty to be resolved.

Edited October 30, 2023 by sunnijim

[Mcconnor8]

Got to say that if it does correct North/North West at all from the current forecast track then it could well be a 1987 repeat almost, small movements in track 50/100 miles will make a huge difference to wind speeds on the South Coast in particular and inland from there.

ECM/UKMO are currently further North West than the GFS/ICON, Arpege 06z run below also looks more NW and would probably be very bad for the South.

[LightningLover]

25 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Got to say that if it does correct North/North West at all from the current forecast track then it could well be a 1987 repeat almost, small movements in track 50/100 miles will make a huge difference to wind speeds on the South Coast in particular and inland from there.

ECM/UKMO are currently further North West than the GFS/ICON, Arpege 06z run below also looks more NW and would probably be very bad for the South.

Yes, 06z ARPEGE showing a swath of 80mph winds touching the coast, 90mph over the channel.

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Wivenswold said:

My remaining chum from school lives in Seddlescomb and ended up buying a back-up generator because their connection to the National Grid is so fragile.  Lots of mature trees in the countryside between the North and South Downs, the ground is saturated and it takes just one gust for the infrastructure for thousands of homes to break.

Yes, I lived in London in 1987 and even there it was carnage. We lost power at 4.11am and got it back about 12 hours later, it felt like the 1970s. 

Same, and as my mum drive me to school the next day, saw a tree on a car, trees down everywhere, a roof just around the corner damaged, school was open those who could make it, but the head was surprised, as we were drive in, not walk in range. 

[ChannelThunder]

44 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Got to say that if it does correct North/North West at all from the current forecast track then it could well be a 1987 repeat almost, small movements in track 50/100 miles will make a huge difference to wind speeds on the South Coast in particular and inland from there.

ECM/UKMO are currently further North West than the GFS/ICON, Arpege 06z run below also looks more NW and would probably be very bad for the South.

Crikey.

Quite the period of weather at the mo, gotta say I'm enjoying it purely from an 'interesting' weather perspective.

[Shaunado]

The power was out for 2 weeks after the 1987 storm. Thankfully looking less severe this time, but things could still change.

[SouthwestChaser]

The thing to watch is if this thing tracks just 100 miles North of current predictions, then we're looking at a truly exceptional storm with force 10-11 for the whole South/Bristol channel coast and perhaps even force 9 widely inland. Or, knowing our luck it may move 100 miles further south and just hit France and northern Spain.

[Fitzwis]

Jersey Met Office Thursday morning forecast makes interesting reading. No doubt a red warning will be issued by them nearer the time followed by a meeting of the department of infrastructure and education. If islanders aren’t advised to stay indoors, I’ll be very surprised ...

[Mcconnor8]

6 minutes ago, SouthwestChaser said:

The thing to watch is if this thing tracks just 100 miles North of current predictions, then we're looking at a truly exceptional storm with force 10-11 for the whole South/Bristol channel coast and perhaps even force 9 widely inland. Or, knowing our luck it may move 100 miles further south and just hit France and northern Spain.

The 06z models do seem to have shifted back North slightly from yesterday evenings output, next couple of days could be nail biting stuff model wise for a very severe storm.

[ChannelThunder]

The storm will soon actually exist, which should help models hone in on the finer details. 

Going by what I can see, Ciaran is currently in the process of being born within this lot in the far NE USA:

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Amazing to see that in these situations, large parts of southern Britain will hardly see enough wind to fly a kite on midday Thursday, whilst a hundred miles or so south and it’ll be windy enough to blow roofs off houses !

[Scuba steve]

8 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Amazing to see that in these situations, large parts of southern Britain will hardly see enough wind to fly a kite on midday Thursday, whilst a hundred miles or so south and it’ll be windy enough to blow roofs off houses !

Looks like it contains a couple of sling shot secondary lows ,looks troublesome 

[Darren Vidamour]

34 minutes ago, Fitzwis said:

Jersey Met Office Thursday morning forecast makes interesting reading. No doubt a red warning will be issued by them nearer the time followed by a meeting of the department of infrastructure and education. If islanders aren’t advised to stay indoors, I’ll be very surprised ...

Hope my holiday destination every year is not hit hard! All them trees on the green lanes......Lets hope for a downgrade for everyone!

[sunnijim]

26 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

The 06z models do seem to have shifted back North slightly from yesterday evenings output, next couple of days could be nail biting stuff model wise for a very severe storm.

Tonight's 12z will be key in where we will end up at imo in terms of  the path.

The storm is forming now so we should see this fed into data runs going forward which "should' help nail the track a little more.

The middle ground is usually the form horse.

So GFS has been too far South,UKMO too far North, ECM about right.

If we get a sudden shift from models in any direction overnight that will be either time to panic or breathe easier.

Could be that current guidance is about right,Channel Isles Northern France worst hit.

Although the 06z would put Southern coasts in the mix too.

[Mark Parsons]

6 hours ago, James Maidstone said:

Wouldn't rapid cyclogenesis be modelled more accurately these days though?  All models are in agreement though that this is to be a very deep area of low pressure, the fine detail is key though.  ECM favours a more northerly track with today's 00z having the low centred over Bristol at 12pm Thursday (yesterday's 12z had the centre about 80 miles South).  For comparison todays 00z has the low centred over East Anglia at the same time and the Path further South meaning destructive winds less of an issue for the South Coast in comparison to ECM.  If the ECM shunts North further still of pulls the storm track more NE then the impact on the South Coast could be a lot more severe.   As the saying goes "awaiting a big ECM run this evening!"

From what I have been reading cyclogenesis is being forecast with a rapid drop in air pressure........

[alexisj9]

36 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Amazing to see that in these situations, large parts of southern Britain will hardly see enough wind to fly a kite on midday Thursday, whilst a hundred miles or so south and it’ll be windy enough to blow roofs off houses !

True can already hear what storm, why bother naming this, it's doing nothing. Same as every storm, it's named for local impacts in the area it hits.

[mike57]

3 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

True can already hear what storm, why bother naming this, it's doing nothing. Same as every storm, it's named for local impacts in the area it hits.

I think this is the problem with the impact and probability matrix as it stands. A severe danger to life storm still gets the yellow warning while probabilility is low, the same warning as much less severe immenent storm. Peoples respsonse to the the two scenarios needs to be different, a severe storm will mean a potential shutdown, where as the less severe storm wont affect most people, unless you are doing something outside for example.

[ANYWEATHER]

This is where the makings of our wind storm for Thursday is just starting to develop…..

Edited October 30, 2023 by ANYWEATHER

[ThundersnowDays]

the ICON looks bad for the entire south coast!

[danm]

Storm Ciarán: damaging winds and heavy rain later in the week.

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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The third named storm of the season is due to hit the UK from Wednesday. Matt Taylor looks at what the impacts might be.

 

[Jo Farrow]

More heavy rain and flooding before Storm Ciaran even arrives

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

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Northern Ireland has an amber warning for Rain for Monday night and Tuesday morning as the rain just keeps on coming. The flood risk continues with Storm Ciaran here by Thursday

Grim for Northern Ireland tonight, even without a Storm