Storm Ciarán

[TwisterGirl81]

23 minutes ago, Wivenswold said:

Damage possible anywhere that shows red to white on that map. This is looking more and more like 1987's little brother. 

If the storm moves further north by 50-100 miles or so it would be more like the twin of 1987

[alexisj9]

3 minutes ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

If the storm moves further north by 50-100 miles or so it would be more like the twin of 1987

No what it needs is a sting jet over the SE to be like 87, and we really do not want that.

[TwisterGirl81]

2 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

No what it needs is a sting jet over the SE to be like 87, and we really do not want that.

Would be interested to see todays wind gust graphs depicting how bad 1987 storm was and 1990 burns day storm, met office pages on the storms don’t seem to do it justice  

[Jamesy]

1 hour ago, Wivenswold said:

Looking at the latest from the UKMO, I'm already thinking about which operators will run a reduced service. Transport for Wales, Cross Country, GWR, South West Railway, Southern, Thameslink, South Eastern, C2C and Greater Anglia I reckon.   The rain alone will cause some problems.

Nothing planned yet for Anglia - Wind gusts need to exceed 60mph (or mean wind speeds 50mph+) - That’s the trigger for a 50mph (train running) blanket speed. At present it’s only exposed coastal areas that are forecast to exceed 60mph, so I doubt they would implement speed restrictions across the whole route based on that. Any deviation of the low which brings those winds further inland would be discussed on the extreme weather response teleconference tomorrow AM, so in theory it could change.

Blanket speeds likely in the West Country though (GWR) - Probably Taunton to St Austell and exposed coastal routes such as Dawlish etc.

Better to be safe than sorry!
 

[ANYWEATHER]

Ecm still keeps the worst of the winds over northern France and the channel. The Bay of Biscay looks like getting the worst of it.....

[Downburst]

1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

Something I am keen on; The GFS gives a 22mb drop here in just 6 hours. Looking very likely my record will go.

And your ears will pop.

[sunnijim]

8 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Ecm still keeps the worst of the winds over northern France and the channel. The Bay of Biscay looks like getting the worst of it.....

ECM is toying with an idea GFS had 24hrs ago,until the 12z it had been consistent with the track 100 miles or so North of this.

Rogue run imo, with the vast majority of models seeing things further North.

[LightningLover]

10 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

ECM is toying with an idea GFS had 24hrs ago,until the 12z it had been consistent with the track 100 miles or so North of this.

Rogue run imo, with the vast majority of models seeing things further North.

Seen the latest UKV? Pretty incredible for your area...

[stodge]

Evening all

Slightly apprehensive here in East London - I really don't want bits of West London flying past my window.

I'm far from convinced the track of this storm has been resolved even at 72 hours out. UKM takes it north - ECM puts the centre of the LP pretty much over my head while GFS 12Z OP toys with the 1987-type SW to NE move (hopefully, as others have said, without the sting jet).

GFS 12Z OP forecasting 7 inches of rain in the next 10 days for parts of South Wales.

 

[sunnijim]

8 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

Seen the latest UKV? Pretty incredible for your area...

Yes,,but a broad brush of all models would suggest that might be a little ott?  

The met office update seems to suggest they are still imagining things further South than any of the guidance since today's 06z,There video forecast thus afternoon seems more akin to what was showing yesterday bar tonight's ECM.

Makes me think the Deecider and mogreeps models might not buy into the intensity or Northward track..

Edited October 30, 2023 by sunnijim

[Badgers01]

31 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Ecm still keeps the worst of the winds over northern France and the channel. The Bay of Biscay looks like getting the worst of it.....

Not really sure one frame at midnight Thursday showing the 850 hPa  wind speeds tells us the whole story !

[TallPaul]

2 hours ago, toggerobz said:

I'm thinking anyone at the top of Spinnaker Tower would be getting quite the experience on Thursday 

Lucky him /her/them...

[ModestMention]

This from Windy.com for my location.

So not too bad apart from GFS. I'm hoping for UKV for me, but it looks nasty elsewhere.

Stay safe 

Edited October 30, 2023 by ModestMention

[Polar Maritime]

Lots of detail to come yet given the forces evolving, I expect an almost now-cast for the the worst effected areas. Be it floods or gales. But the South will worst hit..

[January Snowstorm]

The Icon follows ecm in nudging further South!! The gfs ppn charts are looking more out on their own now

Edit, in fact it's a substantial nudge that means even South Coast of UK misses out

Edited October 30, 2023 by January Snowstorm

[ChannelThunder]

7 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

The Icon follows ecm in nudging further South!! The gfs ppn charts are looking more out on their own now

Edit, in fact it's a substantial nudge that means even South Coast of UK misses out

Well that's no fun

[alexisj9]

25 minutes ago, ModestMention said:

This from Windy.com for my location.

So not too bad apart from GFS. I'm hoping for UKV for me, but it looks nasty elsewhere.

Stay safe 

Do you have to be premium to get that comparison chart, or just registered, just checked it out, but can't find these box charts.

7 minutes ago, ChannelThunder said:

Well that's no fun

That would be a relief in my book.

[Catacol]

Fax chart tonight slightly less deep, but still a major concern. Eye of storm looks slightly further N as it passes through the channel - SE corner at greater risk on current trajectory.

Edited October 30, 2023 by Catacol

[MP-R]

2 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Something I am keen on; The GFS gives a 22mb drop here in just 6 hours. Looking very likely my record will go.

Lowest I’ve recorded ever is 958mb on 10th March 2008. Looks like my area might even be in the eye so I wouldn’t be surprised to get quite a bit lower than that.

[Lincs Observation]

Not sure this has been put up for general viewing but here is a graphic courtesy of uk weather updates.

[Roger Stockman]

Looks like the GFS is out on its own at the moment.

8 minutes ago, Lincs Observation said:

Not sure this has been put up for general viewing but here is a graphic courtesy of uk weather updates.

Mmm this graphic @Lincs Observation worries me, as the SW is in for a head on!!! if this is true the whole SW will be put under a red warning,, Plus major damage in Cornwall.

 

 

Edited October 30, 2023 by Roger Stockman

[Lincs Observation]

Thoughts of paul blight courtesy of X interesting jet stream speed

 

[Roger Stockman]

2 minutes ago, Lincs Observation said:

Thoughts of paul blight courtesy of X interesting jet stream speed

 

SW can get ready !!! Fingers crossed it is downgraded a little, but that is some seriously damaging weather coming in.

[Lincs Observation]

It looks like Thursday lunchtime is the witching hour for Lincolnshire should that graphic be correct with gusts at 80mph, many of the online weather forums are picking up on a possible more northerly track across the Uk, reminds me of the infamous bbc weather report by Michael fish all them years ago

[alexisj9]

42 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

The Icon follows ecm in nudging further South!! The gfs ppn charts are looking more out on their own now

Edit, in fact it's a substantial nudge that means even South Coast of UK misses out

Unless windy still has the old data, still looks to effect places on the south coast, Dover has gust 60 mph and over for quite some time.