Storm Ciarán

[Lincs Observation]

An alternative look curtesy of the weather outlook, model showing track south.

 

with the storm still in development stage the other side of the Atlantic I think personally it won’t be until the 12z Wednesday output we will get some idea of strength, pressure and a possible outcome in direction.

 

[weatherobsuk]

It's going to be a nightmare for airlines operating in/out of LHR, LGW, LTN, STN on Thursday especially during the term holidays, I expect to see BigJetTV to be livestreaming on the day but it could be MAN & EMA who see a few rarities arriving.

[Freeze]

It's going to be rough here Thursday morning but I'm also a little excited to be honest, I expect schools and all that will close if things stay as they are or worsen. A lot of trees are going to fall considering most of them are still in full leaf.

[ChannelThunder]

24 minutes ago, Lincs Observation said:

Thoughts of paul blight courtesy of X interesting jet stream speed

 

Well, that didn't age well. Just 6 hours later and it's back south-shifted instead.

[daveinSB]

1 minute ago, ChannelThunder said:

Well, that didn't age well. Just 6 hours later and it's back south-shifted instead.

Is the 18z Arpege even out yet? Or are you referring to another model?

[Lincs Observation]

12 minutes ago, ChannelThunder said:

Well, that didn't age well. Just 6 hours later and it's back south-shifted instead.

And I think it will shift again in the models over the next 12-24hrs, I still think that it’s still to early to get to grips with this storm. It’s still in development 3000miles away and with a very strong jet stream and waters at +2.1oC warmer than normal this really could get nasty.

like I said earlier my feelings are around Wednesday 00z output as the system approaches the SW by then we will know 12hrs before the real action starts if it hits us, what intensity and track or it is a glancing blow as it tracks to Northern France.

[If Wishes made Weather]

18z GFS puts anywhere in the south and east of the Wash to IoW  in line for 100 kph gusts by 4am.  Worse for coasts. That would be disruptive in a part of the country that does not normally see these sort of winds. 

[Lincs Observation]

1 minute ago, If Wishes made Weather said:

18z GFS puts anywhere in the south and east of the Wash to IoW  in line for 100 kph gusts by 4am.  Worse for coasts. That would be disruptive in a part of the country that does not normally see these sort of winds. 

Indeed the spread across the models from day to day in fact from output to output just goes to show the real complications of the track of this storm.

 

this has to be the most exciting period since the st Jude’s storm

[Metwatch]

The lowest atmospheric pressure reading for England during November was 960mb in 1996. I think that could easily be lower on Thursday!

[CLReeve]

The Arpege 18z has adjusted the low southwards a little, compared to the 12z run.

 

It seems, to my uneducated eye at least there is now difference between European and American models, with the Euros taking it further south compared to their N American counterparts.

 

 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

1 hour ago, ChannelThunder said:

Well that's no fun

I don't wanna loose my electric again thanks!

[Wold Topper]

Me thinks one or two posters need to chill their beans for 24/36hrs until the finer details come into the accurate time frame, there will be peeps (quietly) reading this thread with growing anxiety that don't need inaccurate/speculative posts of when and where this storm will track! As always, more runs needed.....

Edited October 30, 2023 by Wold Topper

[Lincs Observation]

Latest sat image of what will become storm ciaran

 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

52 minutes ago, toggerobz said:

It's going to be a nightmare for airlines operating in/out of LHR, LGW, LTN, STN on Thursday especially during the term holidays, I expect to see BigJetTV to be livestreaming on the day but it could be MAN & EMA who see a few rarities arriving.

Can't wait to see the lad in action!! Well until my electricity goes out ...

[*Stormforce~beka*]

3 minutes ago, Wold Topper said:

Me thinks one or two posters need to chill their beans for 24/36hrs until the finer details come into accurate time frame, there will be peeps (quietly) reading this thread with growing anxiety that don't need inaccurate/speculative posts of when and where this storm will track! As always, more runs needed.....

I'm scared! Ain't gonna lie.

[Wold Topper]

Just now, *Stormforce~beka* said:

I'm scared! Ain't gonna lie.

My point beka, encapsulated! 

[minus10]

Gfs 18z

[Thunderspotter]

I never really tend to track windstorms, but here seems an exception. I'm kind of excited to see what happens. Looks concerning for the channel islands. On windy.com (UKV mostly) seeing gusts up to 100 or 105mph.

I'm calling it now - Tomorrow the Met will release an amber warning for the south coast. They tend to hold fire on red warnings, so who knows what will happen then.

All depends on tomorrow's observstions, i guess!

[TwisterGirl81]

33 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Can't wait to see the lad in action!! Well until my electricity goes out ...

Ha ha

I think I’ll be keeping my cat in for most of Thursday, she won’t go out anyway as she is a pampered cat who doesn’t like the cold, wind or rain lol 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Just now, TwisterGirl81 said:

Ha ha

I think I’ll be keeping my cat in for most of Thursday, she won’t go out anyway as she is a pampered cat who doesn’t like the cold, wind or rain lol 

Tbh the only real thing that scares me is the loss of electricity. We have no other way to get heat and I detest being cold. We need a log fire!!!

[TwisterGirl81]

4 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Tbh the only real thing that scares me is the loss of electricity. We have no other way to get heat and I detest being cold. We need a log fire!!!

I’m sure you’ll be fine, me too, I think they are at least £3000 or above to install, it’s on my bucket list too 

[SouthwestChaser]

23 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Gfs 18z

PLEASE tell me that's MPH and not KPH.

[CLReeve]

18 minutes ago, Thunderspotter said:

I never really tend to track windstorms, but here seems an exception. I'm kind of excited to see what happens. Looks concerning for the channel islands. On windy.com (UKV mostly) seeing gusts up to 100 or 105mph.

I'm calling it now - Tomorrow the Met will release an amber warning for the south coast. They tend to hold fire on red warnings, so who knows what will happen then.

All depends on tomorrow's observstions, i guess!

I wonder if there's any risk of the midlands being affected by these winds.  Certainly some (albeit a minority) of GFS members would be devastating more widely across England if they were to verify.

[Mapantz]

5 minutes ago, SouthwestChaser said:

PLEASE tell me that's MPH and not KPH.

The barbs indicate knots & direction, the colour scale is Km/h.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

8 minutes ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

I’m sure you’ll be fine, me too, I think they are at least £3000 or above to install, it’s on my bucket list too 

I'm not the big storm last February took out our leccie so could easily happen again!