Christmas/New Year 2023 weather

[Topclassweatherforecaster]

We may be 2 months away from 2024 but it is always cool to see any suggestions of how it will be to finish off 2023. Will xmas be white or green. Talk down below!

[bluearmy]

The clever money says green 

[cheshire snow]

I am going to take a guess at a mild Christmas followed by a rapid decent into a cold and wintry beginning to 2024.

[damianslaw]

The last notably cold christmas was 2010! and that broke on the 27th. Last year the cold arrived a week or so too early.

We've had brief colder interludes since 2010 over christmas, brief being the operative word, 2014, 2017 and more especially 2020. Alas the christmas week 24-31st has in recent years been mild or exceptionally so, last 2 years especially.

We are overdue a cold one, the last cold last week of the year, was 14 years ago in 2009!

Also the last cold week leading up to christmas was 2010.

Not saying this will be the year to buck the trend, perhaps we might see a toned version of 2009, or more likely a 2000 Dec that brought the cold just in time for christmas after 3 months of relentness rain and wind..

[cheeky_monkey]

the only green Xmas here i could find was Dec 1997..which was also a strong El Nino year 

[RJBingham]

It'll be a soggy mud colour 

[Summer8906]

Mild, dull, wet and zonal - as it almost always is.

Rain almost a certainty on both New Year's Eve and New Year's Day.

Next settled spell after the imminent one to begin in mid-to-late Jan, and perhaps not unlike this year, the second half of winter to be drier than the first.

Edited November 18, 2023 by Summer8906

[SqueakheartLW]

On 02/11/2023 at 20:08, damianslaw said:

The last notably cold christmas was 2010! and that broke on the 27th. Last year the cold arrived a week or so too early.

We've had brief colder interludes since 2010 over christmas, brief being the operative word, 2014, 2017 and more especially 2020. Alas the christmas week 24-31st has in recent years been mild or exceptionally so, last 2 years especially.

We are overdue a cold one, the last cold last week of the year, was 14 years ago in 2009!

Also the last cold week leading up to christmas was 2010.

Not saying this will be the year to buck the trend, perhaps we might see a toned version of 2009, or more likely a 2000 Dec that brought the cold just in time for christmas after 3 months of relentness rain and wind..

I think many places had an ice day for Christmas 2010 if I do recall and the mean CET daily value for the day was -5.9C.

In fact 2010 was the last time we had notable cold leading up to Christmas, on the day itself and for a short time afterwards as well with a string of sub zero daily CET means from the 17th up to the 27th, the period averaged -3.93C.

2009 wasn't quite as cold for the period 24th to 31st as you might think and was in fact less cold than the equivalent period in 2010. 2009 was 1.91C for that period compared with 0.39C for 2010. The Christmas to New Year period in 2009 was in fact the less cold period that was sandwiched between the pre Christmas cold from the 17th to 24th and the post New Year cold from 4th to 10th January 2010.

The last week of 2000 also averaged colder than 2009 as well at 0.95C.

The ideal lead up to, Christmas to New Year period and early 2024 period for me

The perfect build up for me would be:

2009 from 17th to 24th December     2000 from 25th to 31st December     2010 from 1st to 10th January

17th     1.90C                                          25th      2.90C                                          1st     -0.50C

18th     -0.90C                                         26th      1.10C                                          2nd     0.30C

19th     -2.00C                                         27th      0.90C                                          3rd     -0.60C

20th     -1.80C                                         28th     -0.20C                                          4th     -3.40C

21st      -0.80C                                        29th     -1.90C                                          5th     -2.70C

22nd    -1.40C                                         30th     -0.80C                                          6th     -0.50C

23rd     -0.30C                                         31st     1.70C                                           7th     -4.60C

24th     -0.40C                                                                                                           8th     -3.70C

                                                                                                                                   9th     -2.10C

                                                                                                                                   10th   -1.20C

This is a broad idea of what I would want but if I wanted to be even more specific I would substitute 30th and 31st of 2000 and 1st to 3rd January 2010 for 30th December 1996 to 3rd January 1997 for extra snow.

However the average mean CET for the singled out 3 periods above is a decent -0.66C so a nice sub zero lead up to, Christmas and New Year and opening to 2024 would do me nicely.

[raz.org.rain]

I'm going with mild, cloudy and rainy. New Year's will probably be drier but still damp and cold. Seems to be the standard pattern. Oh, and plenty of smog on New Year's Day due to all the fireworks.

[Ladyofthestorm]

If these NLy outbreaks continue to pop up, Christmas 1995 or 2001

 

[Weatherman_93]

Probably unsettled through the month of December. Some short cold spells. Much the same for early next year.

The ‘mad’ thread will tell you something else with chart after chart after chart..

[Paul]

Santa's back!

Christmas Weather Forecast | Will there be a white Xmas?

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Always seem to find it a very mild time of year, the warm sectors can be 15 degrees or so, feel more so than 1st half of Dec, where very mild days are not as common

[Weather-history]

On 02/11/2023 at 20:08, damianslaw said:

We are overdue a cold one, the last cold last week of the year, was 14 years ago in 2009!

 

The last week of December 2020 was cold dominated. It actually snowed Christmas Day here,  it snowed early hours of December 28th, with lying snow into the New Year and it snowed New Year's Eve .

Temperatures at Manchester Airport

25th: 4, -4

26th: 9, 4

27th: 7, 1

28th: 2, 0

29th: 3, -3

30th: 1, -3

31st: 1, -1

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Aye, good one this was here

[bluearmy]

Best odds are 9/4 Edinburgh and 16/1 Newcastle 

got to be worth a punt on newcastle 

[booferking]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Best odds are 9/4 Edinburgh and 16/1 Newcastle 

got to be worth a punt on newcastle 

Where you getting 16/1 for Newcastle best odds I've seen is 5/2?

https://bookies.com/uk/news/white-christmas-odds-will-snow-fall-on-christmas-day-in-uk-2023

[bluearmy]

24 minutes ago, booferking said:

Where you getting 16/1 for Newcastle best odds I've seen is 5/2?

https://bookies.com/uk/news/white-christmas-odds-will-snow-fall-on-christmas-day-in-uk-2023

Was on an oddschecker article from Monday  

Must have been taken - did seem a bit generous!

[damianslaw]

On 03/12/2023 at 19:37, Weather-history said:

The last week of December 2020 was cold dominated. It actually snowed Christmas Day here,  it snowed early hours of December 28th, with lying snow into the New Year and it snowed New Year's Eve .

Temperatures at Manchester Airport

25th: 4, -4

26th: 9, 4

27th: 7, 1

28th: 2, 0

29th: 3, -3

30th: 1, -3

31st: 1, -1

 

Yes the last 4 days of 2020 were cold, a bit of snow on New Years Eve, made for a seasonal feel. January 2021 was wintry here as well. A good winter in not so good times.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

It'll rain

[Weather-history]

Christmas weather realty

 

1898

1924

1935

    

 

1948

 

 

1898 

Christmas Weather Lore

[damianslaw]

Probably statistically more snow falls on the 25 Feb than 25 Dec!